CNN: A Tectonic Shift in GOP Voter Turnout Is Underway, Massive Implications For 2024

[RhodyPatriot]

Who would have thought CNN would have had one of the more interesting political reads of the day?

This not only portends Democrats maybe want to panic about the upcoming election, but it also helps explain the GOP's disappointing mid-term; despite winning the national popular vote by three points.

...many still believe an old theory that Republicans fare better in midterm elections when voter turnout is traditionally lower, and that Democrats fare better in presidential election years when voter turnout is traditionally higher.

Yet recent elections suggest a new trend is emerging, and we need to pay attention to it.

The great realignment of American politics, which began with the House of Representatives’ Republican freshman class in 2010 — and was boosted by the candidacy of Donald Trump in 2016 — has given us critical new data points about American voters. The tectonic polarization of the electorate along education, income and geographic lines isn’t just reshaping the parties, it is also reshaping voter turnout models.

The new, or perhaps still emerging Republican coalition has more blue-collar, non-college educated and rural voters — similar to the expansive coalition that former President Ronald Regan built in the 1980s. It has more voters who didn’t take part in many previous elections because they didn’t believe anyone cared about them or that their vote made a difference.

In fact, we now have enough election data to confidently say many of them are more likely to stay home in a midterm election and more likely to participate in a presidential election — upending decades of political science orthodoxy.

Further exacerbating this phenomenon is the Democratic Party’s move toward a much higher-income, White coastal voter base, and with it, a more left-wing progressivism that is alienating significant segments of Hispanic and Black voters.

To predict GOP performance next year, one can compare 2020 vs. 2022:

In 2024, according to NRCC data models, which took 2020 congressional vote totals and grouped them by their new congressional district lines for 2022, two-thirds of battleground districts look likely to be more favorable to Republicans in a presidential cycle than they were in a midterm cycle.

According to the NRCC analysis of final vote tallies, there are 19 districts in which Trump’s 2020 performance was greater than the Republican congressional candidate in 2022. In an additional eight districts, the 2020 GOP congressional candidate outperformed the GOP congressional candidate in 2022. That’s 27 congressional seats that benefited from a presidential election year lift.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/31/opinions/2024-presidential-election-republican-voter-turnout-shields/index.html

Then there is this from the Washington Examiner:

Alarm goes out: Trump could win - Washington Examiner

ALARM GOES OUT: TRUMP COULD WIN. In the past few days, we've seen a number of political analysts come to a momentous conclusion. Actually, two momentous conclusions. The first is that it is unlikely anyone can catch former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Plenty of nice juicy tidbits of fear from the Left Wing Commentariat slowly beginning to acknowledge that a second Trump term could be all but inevitable.

Game on, I say.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Oh, and I should stipulate:

Before some Leftist says "Washington Examiner leans right" - the quotes they cite are brand new from Politico, NY Times etc. - acknowledging a Trump victory is quite plausible.

 

[two_iron]

I'm good with all that, but the GOP needs to learn about the difference between votes and ballots... whether they're digital or physical, they need to learn how to play the game. Trump can carry 47 states if they wise the fuck up.

 

[theHawk]

Who would have thought CNN would have had one of the more interesting political reads of the day?

This not only portends Democrats maybe want to panic about the upcoming election, but it also helps explain the GOP's disappointing mid-term; despite winning the national popular vote by three points.

















To predict GOP performance next year, one can compare 2020 vs. 2022:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/31/opinions/2024-presidential-election-republican-voter-turnout-shields/index.html

Then there is this from the Washington Examiner:

Alarm goes out: Trump could win - Washington Examiner

ALARM GOES OUT: TRUMP COULD WIN. In the past few days, we've seen a number of political analysts come to a momentous conclusion. Actually, two momentous conclusions. The first is that it is unlikely anyone can catch former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Plenty of nice juicy tidbits of fear from the Left Wing Commentariat slowly beginning to acknowledge that a second Trump term could be all but inevitable.

Game on, I say.

Don’t forget, Biden LOST house seats when he ”won” in 2020, while President Trump WON house seats when he “lost”.

This is because Dems strategically dumped hundreds of thousands of votes at 3am in Dem strongholds in the swing states they needed.

And don’t be fooled by the 5 million vote difference. All those extra 5 million came from CA and NY alone. Outside those blue shit holes, President Trump won handily.

 

[mamooth]

The Conservative News Network is shilling for conservatives? What a surprise.

Meanwhile, back in reality, it's Democrats who are turning out in unexpected numbers. That's why the Republicans haver been getting slaughtered in special elections and abortion referendums.

 

[SweetSue92]

Who would have thought CNN would have had one of the more interesting political reads of the day?

This not only portends Democrats maybe want to panic about the upcoming election, but it also helps explain the GOP's disappointing mid-term; despite winning the national popular vote by three points.

















To predict GOP performance next year, one can compare 2020 vs. 2022:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/31/opinions/2024-presidential-election-republican-voter-turnout-shields/index.html

Then there is this from the Washington Examiner:

Alarm goes out: Trump could win - Washington Examiner

ALARM GOES OUT: TRUMP COULD WIN. In the past few days, we've seen a number of political analysts come to a momentous conclusion. Actually, two momentous conclusions. The first is that it is unlikely anyone can catch former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Plenty of nice juicy tidbits of fear from the Left Wing Commentariat slowly beginning to acknowledge that a second Trump term could be all but inevitable.

Game on, I say.

Black and Hispanic men, 100%. Does anyone think they want to vote for the party of Joe Biden and trans beer? Moreover, YOUNG men...I'm talking high school seniors, trending heavily conservative. They saw the ravages of Big Govt in the covid era and said no thanks.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

I'm talking high school seniors, trending heavily conservative.

Fact check true.

Report: High School Boys Trending Conservative

High school senior boys are nearly twice as likely to say they are conservative, while high school girls continue to drift leftward.

www.breitbart.com

This GOP voter shift story is a sleeper.

After all the indictments, appeals, and ultimately exonerations of Orange Man Rad - this story will be remembered as the first sign the tide was turning against the evil Deep State.

The 2022 mid terms have given the Dems a false sense of security.

And since revenge is a dish best served cold - I ain't complainin'.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

More Leftist freakout over Trump's pending comeback:

CNN's Harry Enten, who took the Politico assessment a step further. "Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle," Enten wrote.

Enten suggested it is a little surprising that Trump is leading the Republican race, given everything that has happened. "What should arguably be more amazing," he wrote, "is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump's two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden."

Emphasis mine:

Enten noted recent polls that show Trump evenly matched with Biden or even ahead of the sitting president. "To put that in perspective," Enten continued, "Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNN's standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign. Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019. Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today."

MAGA crew: Don't despair.

Lefties? Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

I'm good with all that, but the GOP needs to learn about the difference between votes and ballots... whether they're digital or physical, they need to learn how to play the game. Trump can carry 47 states if they wise the fuck up.


View attachment 810207

Ronna McDaniel claims they're going into hyper drive on ballot harvesting, early voting, mail ins etc.

I'd prefer Scott Pressler, but the GOP establishment at least seems to have gotten the message.

Remember, the only reason we control the House right now is because of ballot harvesting victories in deep blue NY and CA.

That says it all for what happens when we take this universal in '24.

 

[candycorn]

Don’t forget, Biden LOST house seats when he ”won” in 2020, while President Trump WON house seats when he “lost”.


View attachment 810210

This is because Dems strategically dumped hundreds of thousands of votes at 3am in Dem strongholds in the swing states they needed.

And don’t be fooled by the 5 million vote difference. All those extra 5 million came from CA and NY alone. Outside those blue shit holes, President Trump won handily.

And somehow the GOP gained seats in the House in 2020 and took the House in 2023.

Care to explain how that happened?

 

[RhodyPatriot]

And somehow the GOP gained seats in the House in 2020 and took the House in 2023.

Care to explain how that happened?

Yeah, it's called you idiots only rigged the Presidential election.

There were an abundance of reports at polling stations in blue city centers all over the nation in 2020 signaling tons of last minute ballots that only had the choice for President filled out - with all the lower races left blank. And they predominantly went for Biden. After the polling stations shut down at like 1 am.

That both answers your question, and casts yet another significant shadow over any preconception that 2020 was anything close to a "normal" election.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Isn’t this what we heard in the 2022 midterms?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

There were an abundance of reports at polling stations in blue city centers all over the nation in 2020 signaling tons of last minute ballots that only had the choice for President filled out - with all the lower races left blank.

no, there weren’t

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Isn’t this what we heard in the 2022 midterms?

No.

We did not hear that mid term performance betwixt the two parties had switched to polar opposites, and that now GOP turnout was lower with this new dynamic.

In fact, we heard quite the opposite.

But thanks for playin.

Bro.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

No.

We did not hear that mid term performance betwixt the two parties had switched to polar opposites, and that now GOP turnout was lower with this new dynamic.

In fact, we heard quite the opposite.

But thanks for playin.

Bro.

Sure we did. We heard it all year long. The Republicans had huge leads in the polls until the Dobbs decision came out.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Sure we did. We heard it all year long. The Republicans had huge leads in the polls until the Dobbs decision came out.

Try reading what I typed again.

You clearly didn't comprehend it the first time.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

And now, according to none other than WaPo - the Black Messiah himself is panicking.

It has been revealed that Barack Obama voiced concerns over the popularity and strengths of fellow former president Donald Trump during a private lunch with current commander-in-chief Joe Biden.

Obama allegedly warned his successor at the June 27 meeting in the White House residence that Trump wielded more political power among Republicans and their supporters than many on the left have cared to admit.

Two people familiar with the meeting told the Washington Post that Obama cited the 45th president's devoted fanbase, apparent control over the GOP, and the increasingly pro-Trump conservative media ecosystem as causes for concern going into 2024.

REVEALED: Obama expressed worry about President Trump’s political strength during private lunch with Biden

Obama has good reason to fear Trump’s abilities.

thepostmillennial.com

This plethora of BS indictments isn't some form of 4D chess the Dems are playing.

It's called: They're desperate.

And the last morons to wake up and smell the coffee will be the Left wing base.

And by then?

It'll be too late.

 

[g5000]

Plenty of nice juicy tidbits of fear from the Left Wing Commentariat slowly beginning to acknowledge that a second Trump term could be all but inevitable.

Just like the 2022 Red Tsunami™.

Oh wait...

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Just like the 2022 Red Tsunami™.

Oh wait...

Listen, I know you simpletons don't do "nuance" - but as always you're missing the fucking point.

Prominent voices in the Left wing media are now admitting they badly predicted the mid term election outcomes (where the GOP did win the national popular vote by 3 - but I digress) - because the Parties have completely switched sides in terms of turnout behavior.

So you're saying Barack Obama, the Washington Post, CNN and Politico are all wrong?

I'll take it.

 

[g5000]

This is just how insane Trumptards have become. They bleev in this scenario.

In the year 2020:

I'm voting against Trump.

CHARGE!!!​

Gee, this makes me want to change my vote to Trump for 2024!