Clinton's Swing-State Advantage

Discussion in 'Congress' started by Jon, May 29, 2008.

  1. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    God, I love this article. I wish people would look at the math and realize how it plays out:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/107539/Hillary-Clintons-SwingState-Advantage.aspx

    I just wanted to point out for maneal that Clinton IS polling better than McCain in Arkansas. While it is a relatively small number of electoral votes in the general election, it's about the same size as every other swing state Obama won. Clinton at least brings the state into play, Obama does not. And in an election this close, states like Arkansas could make all the difference.
     
  2. ReillyT
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    ReillyT Senior Member

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    How do we have any idea that the election will be close? It is May - probably a bit early to jump to this conclusion.
     
  3. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    If there is any possible way for the Dems to lose, they will try their damnedest to meet that goal.
     
  4. ReillyT
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    ReillyT Senior Member

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    I have to agree with this. We seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
     
  5. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    qft
     
  6. ReillyT
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    ReillyT Senior Member

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    What does qft mean?
     
  7. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    Count the states, put them blue or red, and see.

    http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/calculator.html

    Assume all current polls are right. Do both McCain versus Clinton, and McCain versus Obama. In states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arkansas (where McCain beats Obama but loses to Clinton, according to current polls), and see the difference they make. And likewise, give Wisconsin to Obama over McCain.

    I come up with Clinton winning, and Obama losing. Of course, I did this very quickly based on memory of poll results. I may have made a few mishaps. I'll play with it more accurately when I have more time.
     
  8. Steerpike
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    Steerpike VIP Member

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    But there is no reason to make that assumption, any more than there was to assume the polls 3 months ago were right.

    The polls that are out right now are worthless in terms of November.
     
  9. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    How do we know that? We can't base our choice for November over what MIGHT happen in six months. We have to choose the nominee based on what we know now. What we know now is that Clinton wins swing states, and Obama does not.
     
  10. Steerpike
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    Steerpike VIP Member

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    What we know now is that Obama leads in delegates and votes. They aren't going to upset that. That's the reality of it.
     

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