Statistikhengst
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This OP was updated with more information on 12 February 2014
McClatchy/Marist poll, released 02/11/2014:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con... McClatchy_Marist Poll Release and Tables.pdf
( ) = values from the McClatchy/Marist poll prior to this one for that particular match-up:
Clinton 52 (56)
Ryan 44 (40)
Margin: Clinton +8 (+16)
Clinton 53
Romney 44
Margin: Clinton +9
Clinton 55
Huckabee 41
Margin: Clinton +14
Clinton 56 (57)
Cruz 39 (35)
Margin: Clinton +17 (+22)
Clinton 58 (55)
Paul 38 (40)
Margin: Clinton +20 (+15)
Clinton 58 (53)
Bush, Jeb 38 (41)
Margin: Clinton +20 (+12)
Clinton 58 (50)
Christie 37 (37)
Margin: Clinton +21 (+13)
Clinton 58 (52)
Rubio 37 (42)
Margin: Clinton +21 (+10)
Clinton 62 (59)
Palin 37 (36)
Margin: Clinton +25 (+23)
So, the margins, in ascending order:
Hillary vs. Ryan: +8
Hillary vs. Romney: +9
Hillary vs. Huckabee: +14
Hillary vs. Cruz: +17
Hillary vs. Paul: +20
Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb: +20
Hillary vs. Christie: +21
Hillary vs. Rubio: +21
Hillary vs. Palin: +25
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When you analyse the CHANGE in the margin from this Marist/McClatchy poll over the last time each pair was matched up, then the change looks like this:
Hillary vs. Ryan: from +16 to +8 = Ryan +8
Hillary vs. Romney: no comparison possible
Hillary vs. Huckabee: no comparison possible
Hillary vs. Cruz: +22 to +17 = Cruz +5
Hillary vs. Paul: +15 to +20 = Hillary +5
Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb: +12 to +20 = Hillary +8
Hillary vs. Christie: +13 to +21 = Hillary +8
Hillary vs. Rubio: +10 to +21 = Hillary +11
Hillary vs. Palin: +23 to +25 = Hillary +2
So, Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz have actually improved their standing since their last match-up against Hillary. Still, I don't remember the last time that a Democrat polled so strongly against all takers, from between +8 to +25.
Now, some of this is unrealistic: it is highly unlikely that the GOP will select Palin to be it's Presidential candidate. The only time in history that a failed Vice Presidential nominee went on to win the presidency on his own was: FDR, who was the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee in 1920, and came back to win the presidency in 1932.
It is also somewhat unrealistic that Mitt Romney will become the GOP's standard bearer in 2016. The last time that a party nominated the same candidate twice in a row in spite of the fact that he lost the first time (back to back) was: Adlai Stevenson III (D), 1956. True, Richard Nixon (R) won the nomination in 1968, 8 years after his unsuccessful presidential bid in 1960, but that was not back to back. Also, John Dewey (R) was the GOP nominee twice in a row, in 1944 and 1948. It's possible that Mitt could be in the running, but it is very unlikely these days.
So, of the nine prospective GOP candidates, only seven are likely to have a realistic chance at the GOP nomination in 2016 - at least based on this list of match-ups.
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How well did Marist do in 2012?
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?
Marist nailed it in 7 of 8 battlegrounds (automatic misscall in CO, since Marist called a tie there:
Marist's mathematical bias in 2012, the average of the 8 end polls: R +2.00.
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