Climate effects of Arctic hurricanes

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Trakar, Jan 1, 2013.

  1. Trakar
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    Trakar VIP Member

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    Public release date: 16-Dec-2012
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    Contact: Janet Lathrop
    jlathrop@admin.umass.edu
    413-545-0444
    University of Massachusetts at Amherst

    Climate model is first to study climate effects of Arctic hurricanes

    Now climate scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and in England report the first conclusive evidence that Arctic hurricanes, also known as polar lows, play a significant role in driving ocean water circulation and climate


    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]IMAGE:These polar storms can have hurricane-strength winds and are common over the polar North Atlantic, but are missing from climate prediction models due to their small size.
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    AMHERST, Mass. – Though it seems like an oxymoron, Arctic hurricanes happen, complete with a central "eye," extreme low barometric pressure and towering 30-foot waves that can sink small ships and coat metal platforms with thick ice, threatening oil and gas exploration. Now climate scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and in England report the first conclusive evidence that Arctic hurricanes, also known as polar lows, play a significant role in driving ocean water circulation and climate.
    Results point to potentially cooler conditions in Europe and North America in the 21st century than other models predict.
    Geoscientist Alan Condron at UMass Amherst and Ian Renfrew at the University of East Anglia, U.K., write in the current issue of Nature Geoscience that every year thousands of these strong cyclones or polar lows occur over Arctic regions in the North Atlantic, but none are simulated by the latest climate prediction models, which makes it difficult to reliably forecast climate change in Europe and North America over the next couple of decades.
    "Before polar lows were first seen by satellites, sailors frequently returned from the Arctic seas with stories of encounters with fierce storms that seemed to appear out of nowhere," says Condron, a physical oceanographer. "Because of their small size, these storms were often missing from their weather charts, but they are still capable of producing hurricane-force winds and waves over 11 meters high (36 feet)."
    He and Renfrew say that despite the fact that literally thousands of polar lows occur over the Arctic region of the North Atlantic ocean every year, none are simulated by even the most sophisticated climate models. To understand the importance of these storms on climate, Condron and Renfrew therefore turned to a new, state-of-the-art climate model to simulate the high wind speeds associated with these "missing" storms.
    "By using higher resolution modeling we can more accurately simulate the high wind speeds and influence of polar lows on the ocean," Condron says. "The lower-resolution models currently used to make climate predictions very much miss the level of detail required to accurately simulate these storms."
    He and Renfrew find that by removing heat from the ocean, polar lows influence the sinking of the very dense cold water in the North Atlantic that drives the large-scale ocean circulation or "conveyer belt" that is known as the thermohaline circulation. It transports heat to Europe and North America.
    "By simulating polar lows, we find that the area of the ocean that becomes denser and sinks each year increases and causes the amount of heat being transported towards Europe to intensify," Condron points out.
    "The fact that climate models are not simulating these storms is a real problem," he adds, "because these models will wrongly predict how much heat is being moving northward towards the poles. This will make it very difficult to reliably predict how the climate of Europe and North America will change in the near future."
    Condron also notes that other research groups have found that the number of polar lows might decrease in the next 20 to 50 years. "If this is true, we could expect to see an accompanying weakening of the thermohaline circulation that might be able to offset some of the warming predicted for Europe and North America in the near future."

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  2. SSDD
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    Yet another example of how those who believe in climate modelling at present have put thier faith in a "science" that has scratched so little of the surface that it, at this point in time, can at best be called pseudoscience and with regards to making any prediction beyond the next few days can at best be called fraud.

    Attempting to present itself as even being solidly in the first stages of understanding the forces that drive the climate is dishonest in the extreme.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2013
  3. Old Rocks
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    What is dishonest is that you people are still denigrating the efforts of the scientists to understand and predict what the effects of AGW will be. In 1896, Arnnhenius said that increasing the atmospheric CO2 would cause the Earth to warm. He was correct, even if you people were in total denial that there was any warming going on until 2000, when it was too apperant to everybody to deny any longer.

    Then you people went into your, "oh, it's natural cycles" bullshit. Even though you cannot name said cycles. In fact, by the Milankovic Cycles, we should be slowly cooling.

    In his 1981 paper Hansen made a number of predictions. Most have now come true. Sooner than expected. Yet you flap-yaps continually deny that the scientists have made a correct predictions at all. You lie purposely to prevent people from realizing just how far from reality your little political world has gone.
     
  4. SSDD
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    What is dishonest is for climate science, at present to claim that it can make reliable predictions at all.

    Which of hansen's predictions have come true?
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    In 1896, people thought this was real science too

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  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Old Rocks why is the planet 8 degrees warmer than it was 14,000 years ago?
     
  7. IanC
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    climate models are useful and necessary to further our understanding of the climate. projections from those models are useless to predict the future but are a good indicator to see if our assumptions are somewhat correct. if the projections are correct then we may be getting closer to understanding some aspects of what controls the climate. unfortunately the projections have not come to pass therefore we need to rethink our assumptions.
     
  8. Dubya
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    Dubya Senior Member

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    Speaking of dishonest, I've been to sites where scientists discuss climate modeling and have never seen one of them claim the models were great or could actually predict the future. In fact they criticize the models on a regular basis.

    If you aren't being dishonest, find me evidence of a scientist saying the models can predict the future!

    It's the common theme of a Denialista to make a baseless claim and then state his indignation to what is a product of his own imagination. If it bothers you that much, stop inventing the crap you object to!
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2013
  9. Trakar
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    Actually, most projections made by current climate models are accurate within the range of accuracy of the factors they analyze. Of course they tend to be conservative in their estimations of these factors, and the greatest error thus far noticed in many generalized projections is that they tend to understimate speed and magnitude of changes occurring.

    IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 - Complete online versions | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Other

    http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_HIGH.pdf

    National Academy of Sciences - climate modelling - Climate Modeling 101
     
  10. Dubya
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    I'm not aware of any past prediction by Hansen that could come true and haven't, so why don't you post one that hasn't come true? If Hansen is predicting things like Greenland can melt faster than expected, there is evidence to support that, but how can you logically ask for a future prediction to be proven at the present? You've made the case insinuating Hansen's predictions are lacking, so post where they have been wrong!

    You Denialistas always manage to talk and not say or prove anything. There are serious issues in your positions, when it comes to using logic and it's generally disguised babble. If you were aware of something of substance to support your claims, you would post it.
     

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