China, how bad how soon?

[william the wie]

China has:

decreasing GDP growth

Increasing debt

and more angry and motivated ethnic minorities and neighbors that are also busy buying/building weapons.

This is not a good thing for Asian economies.

 

[jwoodie]

The Chinese are playing a waiting game with Trump. They know that the Dems will blame him for a "trade war" and actually hope for a downturn in our economy prior to the 2020 election. Trump may have to accept a face-saving trade agreement before the election and then drop the hammer if he gets reelected.

 

[william the wie]

The Chinese are playing a waiting game with Trump. They know that the Dems will blame him for a "trade war" and actually hope for a downturn in our economy prior to the 2020 election. Trump may have to accept a face-saving trade agreement before the election and then drop the hammer if he gets reelected.

while I see your point backing India as the great hegemonic power of Asia is likely to be the better move.

 

[MarathonMike]

The arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada has me more concerned than the tit for tat trade conflicts with China. China is super pissed off and have already used language like "Act of War" and demanding her immediate release. I have no doubt Huawei ignored the sanctions on Iran and did business with them. That how China rolls whether it's the WTO or sanctions or whatever. They smile and agree and then cheat. I wonder if Canada will follow through and extradite her to the US or cave to China's pressure. I kind of think they will cave.

What is Huawei, and why the arrest of its CFO matters - CNN

 

[william the wie]

This will blow over but China's debt mountain will not and the Communist/Legalist dynasty is hitting over extension. A possibly nuclear warring states period is the next stage.

 

[Likkmee]

 

[Marion Morrison]

This will blow over but China's debt mountain will not and the Communist/Legalist dynasty is hitting over extension. A possibly nuclear warring states period is the next stage.

What does that mean?

 

[william the wie]

This will blow over but China's debt mountain will not and the Communist/Legalist dynasty is hitting over extension. A possibly nuclear warring states period is the next stage.

What does that mean?

When governments fail in China it is usually due to either inflation or default. In this case capital flight is massive. That makes default a more likely cause of collapse.

Right now China is losing an undeclared war with India due to a border dispute in Assam. The cause of the losses is under budgeting the military in southeast China. India has much better relations with the US, Russia and Japan (Can go nuke in a heartbeat) than China does. So, even if it was properly funded this border dispute was stupid from the get-go.

That kind of error gets nuclear armed generals really but quietly upset.
(Had to set up a routine medical appointment right in the middle of posting, sorry for the slow reply.)