Are we approaching a Romney blowout?

[JustSomeGuy]

I come bearing pictures! Below are both Rasmussen's and Gallup's final numbers on party ID for 2004 and 2008 versus the actual breakdown on election day as well as their breakdowns for this year.

Rasmussen is a bit more accurate than Gallup, but the important thing to note is that they both show that Republicans have the edge going into the the final week before the election. If Romney wins Indies by 8+ percentage points as most of the national polls are showing, he wins in a landslide.

Discuss.

 

[elvis]

It's going to be one of the closest elections in history.

 

[Charles_Main]

I come bearing pictures! Below are both Rasmussen's and Gallup's final numbers on party ID for 2004 and 2008 versus the actual breakdown on election day as well as their breakdowns for this year.

Rasmussen is a bit more accurate than Gallup, but the important thing to note is that they both show that Republicans have the edge going into the the final week before the election. If Romney wins Indies by 8+ percentage points as most of the national polls are showing, he wins in a landslide.

Discuss.

I have been trying to explain this for weeks, not we have the Final Numbers. Most of the polls were looking at right now are based on the 2008 Turn out numbers. Which was Dems plus 7. I have been saying for some time it will likely be more like Dems plus 3. This seems to suggest it might even be far worse than that for Dems this time around.

 

[TruthSeeker56]

The most EXCITING thing about a Romney victory is watching the egomaniacal, fractious, America-hating, unqualified IDIOT, Barack Obama, slither off into the sunset.

The four year nightmare will be OVER.

 

[rightwinger]

It's going to be one of the closest elections in history.

Bush/Gore II???

Highly unlikely

 

[JustSomeGuy]

It's going to be one of the closest elections in history.

As we get closer and closer to election day, I become slightly more convinced that the election won't be all that close. Assuming Republicans do have the edge going into the final week, and assuming Romney has flipped Independents from 2008, it's hard for me to believe that Obama can win, or even keep it close, without a great deal of R's crossing the isle to vote for him.

 

[CaféAuLait]

It's going to be one of the closest elections in history.

Bush/Gore II???

Highly unlikely

That is exactly what I see given polling and early voting results. Why do you think it unlikely?

 

[tyroneweaver]

I'm really apprehensive about this. I'm afraid minorities and woman will put barry over the top.

 

[Dutch]

You guys remind me of what I was thinking like back in 2004. I tried to convince myself Kerry was going to win but alas it was not to be. But please continue with your fantasies it's fun to watch

 

[rightwinger]

As we get closer to the election, Rassmussen will more closely match other polls. Romneys leads will gradually diminish

 

[elvis]

You guys remind me of what I was thinking like back in 2004. I tried to convince myself Kerry was going to win but alas it was not to be. But please continue with your fantasies it's fun to watch

So who do you think is going to win?

 

[occupied]

Blowout, in the sense of an explosion due to excessive pressure? It's highly possible.

 

[CaféAuLait]

As we get closer to the election, Rassmussen will more closely match other polls. Romneys leads will gradually diminish

Yet, it's not just Rassmussen that has Romney up. BTW did you know that Rassmussen and 538 are partnered and using the same methodolgy?

With that said, I believe it will be close, very close but in Obama's favor.

 

[mamooth]

Princeton Election Consortium puts Obama's odds of winning at around 90% now.
History of the Meta-analysis

Nate Silver merely has it at 74.4%, up from 73.1% yesterday.
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Intrade currently has Obama at 63.2%
US Presidential Election 2012

BetFair shows 1.48:1, which is 67%
2012 Presidential Election - Next President bet | US Politics odds | betfair.com

Funny, but that all doesn't look like a Romney blowout. Probably because Dem turnout numbers are looking stronger than 2008.

 

[Oddball]

I'm really apprehensive about this. I'm afraid minorities and woman will put barry over the top.

How is it you came to believe that the democrats treating women like a collection of dissociated body parts is going to put them over the top?

 

[OODA_Loop]

Princeton Election Consortium puts Obama's odds of winning at around 90% now.
History of the Meta-analysis

From your link:

For the EV estimator, the gray shaded region indicates the calculated 95% confidence interval. This confidence interval includes sampling error, variation in biases among pollsters, and changes in opinion during the period when the polls were taken. Because pollster biases tend to cancel one another on average, the true 95% confidence interval is smaller, typically less than +/-10 EV.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Princeton Election Consortium puts Obama's odds of winning at around 90% now.
History of the Meta-analysis

Nate Silver merely has it at 74.4%, up from 73.1% yesterday.
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Intrade currently has Obama at 63.2%
US Presidential Election 2012

BetFair shows 1.48:1, which is 67%
2012 Presidential Election - Next President bet | US Politics odds | betfair.com

Funny, but that all doesn't look like a Romney blowout. Probably because Dem turnout numbers are looking stronger than 2008.

And most of the above, such as FiveThirtyEight, predicate their analysis on a comprehensive sampling of polls, including swing state polls, where the election will be decided.

 

[mamooth]

From your link:

For the EV estimator, the gray shaded region indicates the calculated 95% confidence interval. This confidence interval includes sampling error, variation in biases among pollsters, and changes in opinion during the period when the polls were taken. Because pollster biases tend to cancel one another on average, the true 95% confidence interval is smaller, typically less than +/-10 EV.

That's why I said "around" 90%. The Obama lead was a little shy of the 95% interval. Exact figures weren't given, so I eyeballed an estimate.

 

[mamooth]

And most of the above, such as FiveThirtyEight, predicate their analysis on a comprehensive sampling of polls, including swing state polls, where the election will be decided.

It's interesting that the financial markets lag behind the poll probabilities. I think that's because the financial markets are less rational. With any "stock", people tend get a sort of emotional attachment to the stock. Instead of selling a loser off and taking the small hit, they'll ride it all the way to the bottom, in a vain hope of recouping the loss later.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Barring no major negative developments for Romney; he is set to get a minimum of 257 electoral votes. So by definition, Obama can only win a close election. That concept is certainly validated by the reality that he is an incumbent who is down by 5 points in the national polls.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Romney will break the 300 electoral vote threshold. The indicators are there.