JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,756
- 2,220
Alot of these clues are already much discussed, but Tom brings it all together pretty well.
www.foxnews.com
1. Pennsylvania Voter Registration (Republicans gain 300k vote diff compare with 2016)
American presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College as President Trump and Joe Biden both know.
In 2016, Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes were key to President Trump’s victory. He won Pennsylvania by a slim 44,292 votes out of nearly 6 million. That November, the Democrats had nearly a 900,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. That number is now down to a 700,000 registration advantage and has narrowed by 100,000 in the last year.....
2. Florida, too. (Trump +200k)
....In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes.
Now the Democrats' voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 lead, which Politico called a “historic low.”
....
3. Latinos for Trump. (+15%)
Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.....
4. African Americans For Trump. (Trump +37%)
...In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016.
5. Biden the Tax Increaser.
Candidates who promise tax increases, or have a history of supporting tax increases, tend to lose versus those pushing for tax cuts.
President Jimmy Carter lost to challenger Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale lost to President Reagan, Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush 41 and then 41 lost his reelection after his tax increase became a reality. George W. Bush beat Al Gore and then John Kerry....
6. Enthusiasm Matters. (Trump +7%)
As the New York Post has reported, “just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump’s base.”
That is a 20 point gap. In 2016, Trump had only a 13 point gap over Hillary. That increase of 7% bodes well for Trump, not Biden....
7. Early Voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
National polling from Pew Research indicates that “55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.”
However, in the key battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the early voting indicates that “registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats.” The parties are even in Michigan, Democrats up 2% in Wisconsin and the Republicans up 2% in Ohio.
8. American Voters Are More Satisfied in 2020 than they were in 2016.
A new Gallup poll shows that 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago. That could well be the telling in this case given that just four years ago marked the end of the Biden vice presidency. Why would voters return to Biden if they are happier now than when he was in office?
9. Party Identification.
According to Gallup, by the end of September, when the polling firm asked voters this question, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?” the answer came back as follows: 28% said Republican, 27% said Democrat and 42% said independent. (polls oversample Dems by double digits, typically)
Tom Del Beccaro: A Trump 'surprise' victory is in the offing -- here are the 10 tea leaves pointing to it
As November 3 approaches, many prognosticators are trying to convince Americans that Joe Biden is a lock to win the presidency.
www.foxnews.com
1. Pennsylvania Voter Registration (Republicans gain 300k vote diff compare with 2016)
American presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College as President Trump and Joe Biden both know.
In 2016, Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes were key to President Trump’s victory. He won Pennsylvania by a slim 44,292 votes out of nearly 6 million. That November, the Democrats had nearly a 900,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. That number is now down to a 700,000 registration advantage and has narrowed by 100,000 in the last year.....
2. Florida, too. (Trump +200k)
....In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes.
Now the Democrats' voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 lead, which Politico called a “historic low.”
....
3. Latinos for Trump. (+15%)
Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.....
4. African Americans For Trump. (Trump +37%)
...In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016.
5. Biden the Tax Increaser.
Candidates who promise tax increases, or have a history of supporting tax increases, tend to lose versus those pushing for tax cuts.
President Jimmy Carter lost to challenger Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale lost to President Reagan, Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush 41 and then 41 lost his reelection after his tax increase became a reality. George W. Bush beat Al Gore and then John Kerry....
6. Enthusiasm Matters. (Trump +7%)
As the New York Post has reported, “just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump’s base.”
That is a 20 point gap. In 2016, Trump had only a 13 point gap over Hillary. That increase of 7% bodes well for Trump, not Biden....
7. Early Voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
National polling from Pew Research indicates that “55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.”
However, in the key battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the early voting indicates that “registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats.” The parties are even in Michigan, Democrats up 2% in Wisconsin and the Republicans up 2% in Ohio.
8. American Voters Are More Satisfied in 2020 than they were in 2016.
A new Gallup poll shows that 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago. That could well be the telling in this case given that just four years ago marked the end of the Biden vice presidency. Why would voters return to Biden if they are happier now than when he was in office?
9. Party Identification.
According to Gallup, by the end of September, when the polling firm asked voters this question, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?” the answer came back as follows: 28% said Republican, 27% said Democrat and 42% said independent. (polls oversample Dems by double digits, typically)
