AP- new home sales worst on record

[GWV5903]

Toronado, I am a homebuilder, before and after the meltdown the ratio has not really changed on specs (inventory homes), it is a basic rule and today it is incredibly hard for someone to get a line for several reasons...

The housing cycle is long, meaning from land acquisition to final product, for example, we had projects in California that took 7 years to get through lot development alone. I will not get to detailed here, but it constantly changes and when the bottom falls out it takes even the best with it...

The Housing Industry has an enormous impact on our economic well being, and to stay on topic but go in a different direction, a properly regulated Fannie and Freddie must survive, we will all suffer much worse than our current plight without them...

Interesting point on the cycle GVW.

The fast growing areas around St Louis really SEEM to have fewer new Subdivisions popping up. So I ASSUME there are fewer homes being built....

Is there a math trick I am missing in how inventory is calculated? 13 inventory homes in 2012 are going to take 6 months to sell... 13 inventory homes in 2003 might have taken a month to sell?

So you try to stay xx homes ahead of the curve no matter how long it takes them to sell type of a thing?

Forgive my lack of use of the proper terms. I am not in the industry.

We live in the #1 new home market in Houston, our peak was 54,000 starts in '07, we are down to roughly 16,000 now and still ranked #1, so you can imagine what happened to lesser markets, devastation...

With the downfall came large amounts of inventory of homes and lots that get dumped, hence some price correction...

I have changed my mind about the banking bailout, we would be in a more depressed economy had they been allowed to fail, GM & Chrysler are a different story...

A healthy inventory level is 30 to 35%, and yes your analogy about '03 & '12 are close, in today's market 1.5 closing a month per community is doing good...

Prior to the free mortgage money of 1996 from Clinton & FHA DPA and the stretching of CRA, you would rate a solid community with 40+ closings, after '97 the rules changed, the housing market was beginning to walk again, by '99 it was jogging and during the dot com meltdown the moderate to low income housing was starting to really run. From '04 to '06 model home parks grew 72% in the Houston market alone, by this time the free money had morphed to were a 560 FICO could get a stated Zero down, seller paid closing cost (all rolled into the price) no escrow loan with only $500 in the game, talk about a perfect storm...

Yes, you have to have lots and homes on the ground, imagine going to buy a car and all they had were pictures to show, limited success...

So when Washington points at Wall Street and Wall Street points at Washington, they are both to blame, Franklin Raines should have been put in jail IMO, Frank & Dodds as well...

 

[JakeStarkey]

Not material to getting rid of older homes.

You can the dems and the pubs from 1994 to 2006 for this situation.

And you have no workable solutions to the problem. Oh, yelling is not a workable solution.

Irrelevant
This has nothing to do with existing home sales it's about new home sales at an all time low.

Um . . . very relevant. New home sales will lag until the older homes devalued by the melt down are moved.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Along with the senior Republicans and Democrats in the Clinton and Bush administrations and Congresses that supported this monstrosity.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Not material to getting rid of older homes.

You can the dems and the pubs from 1994 to 2006 for this situation.

And you have no workable solutions to the problem. Oh, yelling is not a workable solution.

Irrelevant
This has nothing to do with existing home sales it's about new home sales at an all time low.

Um . . . very relevant. New home sales will lag until the older homes devalued by the melt down are moved.

Not true, this thread is about NEW HOME sales being at an all time low

 

[JakeStarkey]

Irrelevant
This has nothing to do with existing home sales it's about new home sales at an all time low.

Um . . . very relevant. New home sales will lag until the older homes devalued by the melt down are moved.

Not true, this thread is about NEW HOME sales being at an all time low

Which means nothing unless put into context.

You always have trouble with context.

Why is that? Because you always end up looking like an idiot.

When are you going to give up being a racist?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Um . . . very relevant. New home sales will lag until the older homes devalued by the melt down are moved.

Not true, this thread is about NEW HOME sales being at an all time low

Which means nothing unless put into context.

You always have trouble with context.

Why is that? Because you always end up looking like an idiot.

When are you going to give up being a racist?

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Not true, this thread is about NEW HOME sales being at an all time low

Which means nothing unless put into context.

You always have trouble with context.

Why is that? Because you always end up looking like an idiot.

When are you going to give up being a racist?

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Which means nothing unless put into context.

You always have trouble with context.

Why is that? Because you always end up looking like an idiot.

When are you going to give up being a racist?

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

Fine make your case in a thread that you start about existing home sales which are not new home sales and your point is irrelevant to this thread You're dismissed..

 

[JakeStarkey]

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

Fine make your case in a thread that you start about existing home sales which are not new home sales and your point is irrelevant to this thread You're dismissed..

F for Fail for you, bigreb. The two are tied together, and why won't you renounce your racism?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

Fine make your case in a thread that you start about existing home sales which are not new home sales and your point is irrelevant to this thread You're dismissed..

F for Fail for you, bigreb. The two are tied together, and why won't you renounce your racism?

That may or may not be but as to this thread it's about new home sales not existing home sales, per this thread your comments pertaining to existing home sales are irrelevant.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The thread depends on the context of the issue, which is existing stock pulling down the demand for new inventory.

Why won't you renounce racism, bigrebnc? I am going to ask this in every comment to you until you do. Then I will never mention it again unless you recant.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The thread depends on the context of the issue, which is existing stock pulling down the demand for new inventory.

Why won't you renounce racism, bigrebnc? I am going to ask this in every comment to you until you do. Then I will never mention it again unless you recant.

Here's the deal read the title of the thread if it says home sales or existing home sales your point is relevant and should be discussed, if it says New Home sales your point is irrelevant and you need to start a thread of your own.

 

[g5000]

It does not matter who was elected in 2008. It would have made absolutely no difference on what is happening right now in the housing market.

To explain:

We are on the downside of the second wave of mortgage resets. The deeper into the housing bubble we went, the more toxic the loans that were made as the financial institutions scraped the bottom of the barrel to find more borrowers.

It was not until June 2008 that the Pick-A-Payment type of sub-prime loan that was very common was finally banned.

80 percent of borrowers in a Pick-A-Payment mortgage choose to make the lowest payment every month, and the lowest payment is a severely negative amortization mortgage payment. That means with every passing month, the principal grows.

A sub-prime loan resets after three years or when the principal has grown by 10 percent, whichever comes first. Some sub-prime loans reset at five years/25 percent.

When a loan resets, the mortgage then converts to 30-year loan and the borrower must begin making the principal and interest payments required to pay that loan off in 30 years.

So now you have a situation where you owe more than you did when you started and the value of your house has dropped precipitously. You are so underwater it isn't even funny.

Not only that, but your monthly mortgage payment has reset and the amount has gone up by several hundred dollars a month. In some cases, it might even double.

House is worth less, you owe more, plus you took out a HELOC, and your monthly bill just skyrocketed.

A lot of people, if not most, decide to just default at this point.

So now I want you to take a look at this chart and then you will understand exactly what is going on:

http://www.helpingdenvermove.com/agent_files/adjustable-rate-mortgage-reset-schedule.jpg

The chart of mortgage resets starts Month 1 as January 2007.

See that peak at Month 11? January 2008. That is when the first giant wave of mortgage resets hit. And not long after is when people started defaulting in droves and the whole world economy crashed.

Look at those numbers. Look how many sub-prime loans those are. This is why it is a fucking joke when partisan hacks try to say those are all low-income people.

Even as that peak was occuring, Pick-A-Payment and other sub-prime loans were still being made like there was no tomorrow.

Six months later when the reality started to hit of just how bad things were going to be, Pick-A-Payment loans were halted. And the underwriting laws of the Universe were restored by the banks with a vengeance.

June 2008.

Look out three years from there.

Month 42.

The peak of the second wave of resets. June 2011.

And here we are, six months later.

Now take a look out to Month 53. That is going to be April of this year. You see that next peak? Yeah. Even more fun times ahead. Those are all the re-fi's from the first round of resets. And they have a very poor track record when it comes to foreclosures. So there is going to be another dip in the market right about then, too.

This is why there is a MASSIVE shadow inventory of foreclosed houses. And it will take YEARS before they are all off the books.

The bottom will arrive before that, but we are not there yet. Not at least until spring.

This is simple economic reality. It has nothing to do with who is in the White House.

 

[JakeStarkey]

bigreb is a concrete learner. Do not expect abstract thinking from him. That is why he has trouble with this OP, not understanding one is tied to the other.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

bigreb is a concrete learner. Do not expect abstract thinking from him. That is why he has trouble with this OP, not understanding one is tied to the other.

Who are you talking too? No one is paying attention to you nor is anyone but me posting too you.
Your point of existing home sales are irrelevant to a thread discussing New home sales at an all time low. If you want to discussion existing home sales start your own thread.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Several people are paying attention, not the least you.

It is has been pointed out to you existing home sales are weak because of the back log, which is not this administration's fault.

OP fail.

ps: please give up racism.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Several people are paying attention, not the least you.

It is has been pointed out to you existing home sales are weak because of the back log, which is not this administration's fault.

OP fail.

ps: please give up racism.

Several people are paying attention, not the least you.

No one has posted to you but me so no one is paying any attention to you but me, They must think you are irrelevant because they haven't posted anything. Or are you talking about your alter ego?

It is has been pointed out to you existing home sales are weak because of the back log, which is not this administration's fault.

Only by you and I told you as for this thread your point is irrelevant. If you want to talking about existing home sales start your own thread.

please give up racism.

When are you going to stop being a racist?

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Which means nothing unless put into context.

You always have trouble with context.

Why is that? Because you always end up looking like an idiot.

When are you going to give up being a racist?

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

Racism?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Irrelevant if you want to talk about existing homes sales start a thread this thread is about new home sales being at an all time low.
Oh I forgot you don't start new threads do you?

Home sales are related to existing inventory in relation to the need and demand for new inventory.

This is why you look silly.

Now will you give up racism? Just say yes, please.

Racism?

Yell you know how lefties use the race card against those who oppose obama.

 

[JakeStarkey]

bigreb is a racist, and all of us who have been here for some time, know it.

He is having trouble understanding the slow new housing stats are directly the result of the existing inventory.

He does not grok they are related.