Annual Forecast 2008

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Jan 18, 2008.

  1. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Full Startfor Report as PDF:
    http://www.investorsiraq.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4961&d=1200151440
    Of course i only post things of my special interest.


    Turkey — now the strongest it has been in a century — will re-emerge as a major geopolitical weight in the eastern Mediterranean, albeit one that is somewhat confused about its priorities.

    Largely separate from the ongoing Iraqi drama a new power will arise — or, more accurately, an old power will re-arise. For nearly the past century Turkish power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean has been quiescent as the Cold War has dictated Ankara’s security parameters. But since the Cold War’s end the Balkans have evolved violently, Russia has retreated and now is resurging into the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Arab world has witnessed a huge influx of American power, Iran is seeking to expand its sphere of influence and Iraq has collapsed. In the center of this storm of activity, Turkey has strengthened its military and economy and achieved a degree of political coherence it has not known in decades. For the first time since the end of World War I, Turkey has the
    need to be involved in its immediate neighborhood independent of its alliance structure and the means to be involved decisively. Yet none of the challenges and opportunities clamoring for Turkey’s attention is mission critical; all could be ignored. What Ankara lacks is a direction to focus its efforts. The year 2008 will be about Turkey selecting that direction — specifically, deciding whether its chosen goals can be pursued within the structure of alliance with NATO and the United States. Turkey’s full force will not be brought to bear — and its impact upon the alliance not felt — until at least 2009.
     
  2. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Unlike some months ago there are signs of USA and Turkey will last as friends.
    Off course, like also Stratfor indicates the direction is still not that clear and it can change again. But there are no signs for this.

    After Novermber meeting between Bush and Erdogan, in January also State President Gül and Bush met. In both meetings was Turkish energy minister present.
    The last meeting was for the first time for years a meeting were both countries could concentrate on other issues rather then Kurdish terrorism from North-Iraq.
    Since then there is a lasting bilateral exchange rangeing from persons of Petraeus to Satterfield which came to Ankara, and Turkish Vice-General Staff went to Bagdad last week.

    In Turkish media it is being reported, that in last meeting of Bush and Gül it was decided, that Turkey will join US-led GNEP for nuclear energy
    http://www.gnep.energy.gov/

    Turkish media is also reporting, that Turkey will become uranium enrichment center for Muslim States who want to invest in nuclear power stations. So the uranium will be enriched by Turkey and sent to these countries. From Jordan to Egypt, many Muslim countries declared their intention to build nuclear power stations. Turkey off course will enrich its uranium itself.

    Also in these talks was reached agreements about Oil and Gas production in Iraq and transportation of these ressources to Turkey, where it will be marketed from Ceyhan energy hub.
    http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=93508

    Also it seems that USA definately and finally overlooks the fact, that Turkey is enganging with Iran in an energy-partnership. And Turkish state companies investing in Iran in energy sector will not be sanctioned by USA.

    Also USA helps now over winter months with intelligence to bomb PKK in Iraq, and Kirkuk referendum is postponed. Highly unlikely it will every be held. To the displeasure of Iraqi Kurds. Seems Turkey got everything it wanted from USA inclusive access to CIA database, so USA helps Turkey decide where to direct its path in the future while growing ever more potent.

    As the USA is currently arming up the Mid-East, its dogs like Israel/Egypt/Saudi-Arabia it is also predicatable that Turkey will get a share of this. Not in terms of money or free hardware as we do not shit in our pants and our goals are not dictated by the movements of our nighbours like it is in the case of Iran and US-dogs.
    USA is for years except for airforce procurement sanctioned by Ankara in arms procurement and USA resists any technology transfer so far.
    So i expect pinpoint technology transfer in cases of Turkish indigenous Frigate in terms of anti-aircraft missiles, as these Frigates will be Anti-Airwarfare Frigates and technology transfer of newest Fire-Control System for F-16.
    Turkey is together with Israel the only country which USA transfered in the past the ALQ-178V Fire Control System. We want now ALQ-211V and this is also currently a debate within F-16 procurement, which we will buy another 30 pieces of. With old fire-control system which is produced in Turkey, USA can not meddle in Turkish things for example disableing recognition of Greek F-16 as enemy fighters. US produced fire control system uploads NATO software on it.
    We also equipped all our F-16 with local produced EW-Systems and Night-Systems. Currently we develop mission computer and Targeting Pod for F-16, so either stay with old fire-control system or procure new one without tech-transfer and integration of indigeniously components is a problem.

    Vice-Staff General Saygun, who was also present in November meeting in White House will go to Washington at the end of January and attend bilateral defence group meetings, where these things are discussed.
    In all our other projects (MBT, battle-helis, Corvettes, Satellites, Missiles etc) we need not tech-transfer from USA and these projects advance well.

    So if you ask me, the signs are at "staying friends" and USA accepting that Turkey is not dof of USA and is independent player unlike other dogs in our pivotal region.
    So far Turkey has nothing given in reward. But the position of strength does this motive not require. Maybe we will give some things behind closed doors, but that we will see. No matter what, USA will be Turkey's friend, whilst Turkey is expanding in this region.

    The events in Pakistan show, that Turkey is the only stable, democratic, miltary-potent, economy-potent country capable of being friend to USA also in future. If you look at it, we are the only country not poseing a threat to Israel and USA in the premisse that these countries do not pose a threat to us. And Turkey is the future of this geography, able to architect our surrounding region, which we actually do with first steps of economic expansion into surrounding area.

    To people like onedomino:
    Footage of 4th airstrike into North-Iraq from 15th January:
    Dramatic Footage Of Turkish Air Strike
    http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1301372,00.html?f=rss
    Video:
    [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPXYlD2Wugc[/ame]

    This will go on, and anytime (which is in the decision-sphere of Turkish Army) we will go in. With USA still being our friend.
     

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