A numbers kind of guy

[BDBoop]

Welcome to USMB, Statistikhengst...

Thank you.
Muchas gracias.
Grazie mille.
Danke sehr.
Spacebo.
Toda toda.
Merci!

Felice Navidad!
Cinco de Mayo?
Yo quiero, Taco Bell!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hi!

I used to be on a forum elsewhere - and got burnt out. Haven't decided yet if I want to be on another forum at all, but a dear friend recommended this forum, so I am gonna check out usmb and see what's shaking.

I am a person who loves numbers and statistics. If you llike numbers too, then I bet we will get along famously. This may be hard to describe without sounding completely nuts, but the numbers kind of dance in my head - even while I am dreaming - and allow me to achieve a statistical overview of what is going on in the world.

I do lots of electoral statistics, but am branching out into other statistics realms as well. For me, it is totally relaxing and even helps me to have the energy to concentrate on my real profession in the outside world.

At the moment, for me, statistical probability is less important than actual statistical history of a recurring event, for instance, nuclear power plant security breaches, elections, atlantic storms or polio outbreaks in Asia - for I believe very strongly that knowing our past helps us to form our wished-for future.

I've worked pretty damned hard to be totally impassionate when it comes to numbers and not try to bend them to satisfy my own political leanings.

I am fluent in a number of languages and very much enjoy seeing other members salt-and-pepper their postings with words and phrases from a foreign language, for I believe that each language has it's own flavor and way of describing things that can't always be duplicated in another language. Did you know that the Inuits have about 20 different words for "snow" but no word for "war" in their lexicon?

Finally, I am willing to greet each person of good will with good will in kind, regardless of political leanings. Treat me well, I will definitely treat you well.

Off to the starting gate.....

Statistikhengst

Always good to have people on board who understand stats. I won't pretend to be in your league but I find them useful for trends and benchmarks. I tend to use them sparingly because of the old saw about "lies, damn lies and statistics".

Now I was going to give you some greenies as a welcome gift but I have been informed that I have already given out too many (20) within the last 24 hours so you are just going to have to be patient with me! (Boopsie has the patience of a saint to put up with me.)

Have fun and and make yourself at home in the Coffee Shop and the Tavern.

Peace
DT

Thank you for the very kind message. These are the kind of people I like to associate with.

As soon as I have hit 15 postings and also have some time, I will be putting some interesting threads out there and let people see the numbers and interpret them how they wish to.

I do want to point out a couple of quick facts now:

In 2004, most of the exit polls were actually spot on. The exit poll in Ohio was wrong. So was the Columbus Dispatch poll, for the first time in it's history.

But in 2008, the composite state and national polling, plus the exit polls (minus some whacky polls out of West Virginia and - gasp - North Dakota) were spot on.

And in 2012, in spite of all the "skewed polls" wailing from some on the Right, the state polling composite was absolutely spot on. The national polling was atrocious, mostly because Gallup really, really, really screwed-up badly and we now know in retrospect that Gallup cooked the books and even paid a rather large fine in court for it.

So, if we are talking about polling values, I am among to first to remind that "it is only one poll", but have learned to trust the composite polling averages.

As far as stats in other areas, a lot of this is newland: weather reporting is only about 120 years old, and when compared to the age of this ball of mud and water upon which we live, that is just nothing. Hard to make a real comparision. Likewise, the stats for global warming are all too "young" for us to have any real possible comparisons to the past, but the sheer MASS of statistical data about every possible aspect of possible global warming, part of the rubrik of "climate change", simply cannot be ignored. It's like seeing a train that is 20 times too large for the track it is on, coming at you from a distance. You know you can't compare it to any train, but you know it is coming at you, and it is big!

 

[Drumhead]

Welcome! Hopefully you will find this place fun and informative more than anything else.

 

[editec]

Hi!

I used to be on a forum elsewhere - and got burnt out. Haven't decided yet if I want to be on another forum at all, but a dear friend recommended this forum, so I am gonna check out usmb and see what's shaking.

I am a person who loves numbers and statistics. If you llike numbers too, then I bet we will get along famously. This may be hard to describe without sounding completely nuts, but the numbers kind of dance in my head - even while I am dreaming - and allow me to achieve a statistical overview of what is going on in the world.

I do lots of electoral statistics, but am branching out into other statistics realms as well. For me, it is totally relaxing and even helps me to have the energy to concentrate on my real profession in the outside world.

At the moment, for me, statistical probability is less important than actual statistical history of a recurring event, for instance, nuclear power plant security breaches, elections, atlantic storms or polio outbreaks in Asia - for I believe very strongly that knowing our past helps us to form our wished-for future.

I've worked pretty damned hard to be totally impassionate when it comes to numbers and not try to bend them to satisfy my own political leanings.

I am fluent in a number of languages and very much enjoy seeing other members salt-and-pepper their postings with words and phrases from a foreign language, for I believe that each language has it's own flavor and way of describing things that can't always be duplicated in another language. Did you know that the Inuits have about 20 different words for "snow" but no word for "war" in their lexicon?

Finally, I am willing to greet each person of good will with good will in kind, regardless of political leanings. Treat me well, I will definitely treat you well.

Off to the starting gate.....

Statistikhengst

WElcome.

I too was once statistically obsessed and dreamed about a system I called Quantitative Historical Analysis, a system which I then believed might help us predict national and international events.


Then I learned about the concept chaos theory and sort of realized that as powerful as Stat Analysis is in many circumstances, it will seldom give one a grasp of future events in any circumstances where human choice is also interacting with events REAL TIME.

I hope ya stay because this place really needs less ideological thinking and more pragmatic FACT BASED thinkers.

 

[MisterBeale]

Yes, welcome. I have been here a year, and I can tell you, this place has no need for fact based thinkers. People only like to listen to partisan view points.

They either want to cheer you or hate you. If you are anywhere in between, they will ignore you. Logic and rational thinking doesn't win many friends, and it isn't nearly as exciting as naming calling and combative arguing. So, in many ways, this place is a lot like the American political landscape.



You said you got burnt out at the last place you were at? If you ever begin to feel that way, spend time at the Coffee Shop or the Tavern like Ms. Boop recommended, and stop on in to visit Intense at the The Juke Box. Or stop over to meet the members and view pictures of the users. It makes the whole place seem more personal and less combative.

I really wish everyone would do that. There would be a lot less mean people, folks would discuss solutions to problems rather than demonize groups of society, and I believe working together would be the tone of the board rather than personally blaming each other.

Then again, sometimes I think, on a psychological level, maybe some folks just need that release. Better they unload here than in a school or crowded shopping mall. Who knows.

 

[freedombecki]

Hi!

I used to be on a forum elsewhere - and got burnt out. Haven't decided yet if I want to be on another forum at all, but a dear friend recommended this forum, so I am gonna check out usmb and see what's shaking.

I am a person who loves numbers and statistics. If you llike numbers too, then I bet we will get along famously. This may be hard to describe without sounding completely nuts, but the numbers kind of dance in my head - even while I am dreaming - and allow me to achieve a statistical overview of what is going on in the world.

I do lots of electoral statistics, but am branching out into other statistics realms as well. For me, it is totally relaxing and even helps me to have the energy to concentrate on my real profession in the outside world.

At the moment, for me, statistical probability is less important than actual statistical history of a recurring event, for instance, nuclear power plant security breaches, elections, atlantic storms or polio outbreaks in Asia - for I believe very strongly that knowing our past helps us to form our wished-for future.

I've worked pretty damned hard to be totally impassionate when it comes to numbers and not try to bend them to satisfy my own political leanings.

I am fluent in a number of languages and very much enjoy seeing other members salt-and-pepper their postings with words and phrases from a foreign language, for I believe that each language has it's own flavor and way of describing things that can't always be duplicated in another language. Did you know that the Inuits have about 20 different words for "snow" but no word for "war" in their lexicon?

Finally, I am willing to greet each person of good will with good will in kind, regardless of political leanings. Treat me well, I will definitely treat you well.

Off to the starting gate.....

Statistikhengst

Welcome to USMB, Statistikhengst. Hope you enjoy the boards.

Afrikaans - Welkom
Arabic - ahlan wa sahlan
Bengali - shagotom​

Chinese - fùnyìhng​

Danish - Velkommen
English - Welcome
French - Bienvenue
German - Willkommen
Hawaiian - Aloha
Hebrew - baruch haba
Irish - Cead mile failte
Japanese - yōkoso​

Korean - hwangyong-hamnida​

Latvian - Laipni ludzam
Mongolian - tavtai morilogtun
Norwegian - Velkommen
Polish - Witam
Russian - Dobro pozalovat'!
Scottish - Failte
Spanish - Bienvenido
Swahili - Karibu
Tagalog - Maligayang pagdating
American West & TX - Howdy
Turkish - Hoş geldin​

Ukrainian - Laskavo proschmo
Vietnamese - Hoan nghenh
Welsh - Croeso
Xhosa - Siya namkela nonke
Yucatec Maya - Kíimak 'oolal​

Zulu - Ngiyakwemukela​

 

[Statistikhengst]

WElcome.

I too was once statistically obsessed and dreamed about a system I called Quantitative Historical Analysis, a system which I then believed might help us predict national and international events.


Then I learned about the concept chaos theory and sort of realized that as powerful as Stat Analysis is in many circumstances, it will seldom give one a grasp of future events in any circumstances where human choice is also interacting with events REAL TIME.

I hope ya stay because this place really needs less ideological thinking and more pragmatic FACT BASED thinkers.

Perfect prediction is never possible, but guestimations are often quite helpful. And numbers themselves are neutral, they are neither Left nor Right nor do they feel pleasure or pain.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Yes, welcome. I have been here a year, and I can tell you, this place has no need for fact based thinkers. People only like to listen to partisan view points.

They either want to cheer you or hate you. If you are anywhere in between, they will ignore you. Logic and rational thinking doesn't win many friends, and it isn't nearly as exciting as naming calling and combative arguing. So, in many ways, this place is a lot like the American political landscape.



You said you got burnt out at the last place you were at? If you ever begin to feel that way, spend time at the Coffee Shop or the Tavern like Ms. Boop recommended, and stop on in to visit Intense at the The Juke Box. Or stop over to meet the members and view pictures of the users. It makes the whole place seem more personal and less combative.

I really wish everyone would do that. There would be a lot less mean people, folks would discuss solutions to problems rather than demonize groups of society, and I believe working together would be the tone of the board rather than personally blaming each other.

Then again, sometimes I think, on a psychological level, maybe some folks just need that release. Better they unload here than in a school or crowded shopping mall. Who knows.

Thanks for the insights, I will reflect on them.

 

[Mertex]

Sure glad to have you here. You will find this place much more consistent, for one thing....

hope you stay and share your expertise with stats.

 

[April]

Welcome to USMB, Statistikhengst...

Thank you.
Muchas gracias.
Grazie mille.
Danke sehr.
Spacebo.
Toda toda.
Merci!

Oooooh a multi-linguist !

You're welcome
De Nada
Prego

and bla bla bla = you're welcome..

Enjoy your time here at USMB, Stat..

 

[Pogo]

Beinvenue amigo! Como vai? Look forward to your presents.

Tschüß/ciao/sláinte

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sure glad to have you here. You will find this place much more consistent, for one thing....

hope you stay and share your expertise with stats.

I am just thrilled to find you and bdboop and davocrat here! It really is like an early Christmas for me!!

 

[TemplarKormac]

Howdy! I am TemplarKormac.

Suit up and prepare for battle! Diablo waits for no one in his quest to conquer Sanctuary! His minions strengthen with each new member!

 

[BDBoop]

Hey, Stat - TK is a friend. You'll probably see him in the Tavern and Coffee Shop aside from all over the board.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Welcome to USMB, Statistikhengst...

Thank you.
Muchas gracias.
Grazie mille.
Danke sehr.
Spacebo.
Toda toda.
Merci!

Oooooh a multi-linguist !

You're welcome
De Nada
Prego

and bla bla bla = you're welcome..

Enjoy your time here at USMB, Stat..

[MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] - thank you for the kind words!

I tend to like to use the mention function with people I really like or when I want to share an especially informative posting with a lot of people. Is that acceptable behaviour here in USMB, or is that unusual?


I really do love many different foreign languages, and for a lot of reasons. I would like to list a few to see if it resonates with people here:

1.) It's just plain old fun. I mean, lots of fun.

2.) Each language (or language group) has a certain set of phonemes that are central to that language, but heard less or perhaps even not at all in other languages. For instance, the English "th", both silent (stimmlos) and voiced (stimmhaft) doesn't even exist in German. In fact, there was once an incredibly talented comedian in German TV with the stage name of "Loriot", and his wife also played on the show. She often had a segment where she played a German newscaster who was trying to be authentic about speaking English names and always stumbled over the name "Widdlethorpe", because when Germans see a "W", they want to pronouce a "V", the American or British "r" is very hard for them, and the "th" does not even exist in their language. So, a name like "Widdlethorpe" is a form of triple-threat. This comedy shows of Loriot's have become absolute cult in Germany.

3.) There are idiomatic expressions in one language that don't necessarily translate perfectly into another, because one culture's way of looking at life is not necessarily the same as another's. For instance, au Francais (in French), the expression "Au pif" literally means "at the nose" and makes no sense when literally translated, but it is used to mean a good guestimate. When we English speakers would say "off the top of my head" to indicate a spontaneous guestimate, the french say "off the tip of my nose" and the Germans would often say, in order to guestimate, "aus dem Bauch heraus" - or "from my stomach". So, in order to express an instantaneous guestimate based on, well, essentially, intuition, three of the world's best known languages use three different parts of the body to represent "spontaneous". Kinesthetically Cool, eh?

4.) Studies are proving more and more that switching out between two or more languages during the day stimulates more and more parts of the human brain that have barely been researched, and these studies are continuing to show that going back and forth between many languages improves a person's concentration span, both in intensity and in length. In my profession (which I have decided to be a little more mute about on this forum, it was used against me on a former forum, so I have learned my lesson from that one), I often work in 5 or 6 languages a day, including weekends. My little daughter, soon to be 7 years old, is being raised bi-lingually. From me, since the very first moments of her life, she had heard and still hears only English, and from her mother, she hears German. This is something I have been very, very consistent about, in spite of the fact that most of the day, I speak German. This is also part of the reason why I contribute to English speaking boards: it keeps my mother-tongue honed-up, so to speak. And my daughter is really coming along in perfect English these days.

That doesn't mean to me that people who only speak one language are somehow limited. They are not. I know people who speak only English or only German or only Polish, etc., who are absolutely brilliant, but the ability to master more than one language can only be an added plus for anyone who decides to do the shovel-work needed to become fluent in one or more foreign language(s).

So, I just threw four ideas out there and maybe some of my newfound friends and acqaintances here in USMB can add some thoughts - pro and con.

[MENTION=31258]BDBoop[/MENTION] - glad you invited me over, a pleasure. Wait and see if I really fit in here or not.
[MENTION=46181]Davocrat[/MENTION] - one of the finest members the other forum ever had.
[MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] - I have really, really missed you. What a joy to find you again.
[MENTION=45412]Drumhead[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=39702]MisterBeale[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] - freedom, I really like your avatar and your words about our vets!
[MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] - the same, and I like your avatar very much.
[MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] - my instinct tells me that you are a mega-brain. My instincts are not often wrong.
[MENTION=20452]theDoctorisIn[/MENTION] - do I come to you when I have an internet cold?
[MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] - if you are only 1/2 as sweet as bdboop, then we will get along famously.

 

[Drumhead]

Thank you.
Muchas gracias.
Grazie mille.
Danke sehr.
Spacebo.
Toda toda.
Merci!

Oooooh a multi-linguist !

You're welcome
De Nada
Prego

and bla bla bla = you're welcome..

Enjoy your time here at USMB, Stat..

[MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] - thank you for the kind words!

I tend to like to use the mention function with people I really like or when I want to share an especially informative posting with a lot of people. Is that acceptable behaviour here in USMB, or is that unusual?


I really do love many different foreign languages, and for a lot of reasons. I would like to list a few to see if it resonates with people here:

1.) It's just plain old fun. I mean, lots of fun.

2.) Each language (or language group) has a certain set of phonemes that are central to that language, but heard less or perhaps even not at all in other languages. For instance, the English "th", both silent (stimmlos) and voiced (stimmhaft) doesn't even exist in German. In fact, there was once an incredibly talented comedian in German TV with the stage name of "Loriot", and his wife also played on the show. She often had a segment where she played a German newscaster who was trying to be authentic about speaking English names and always stumbled over the name "Widdlethorpe", because when Germans see a "W", they want to pronouce a "V", the American or British "r" is very hard for them, and the "th" does not even exist in their language. So, a name like "Widdlethorpe" is a form of triple-threat. This comedy shows of Loriot's have become absolute cult in Germany.

3.) There are idiomatic expressions in one language that don't necessarily translate perfectly into another, because one culture's way of looking at life is not necessarily the same as another's. For instance, au Francais (in French), the expression "Au pif" literally means "at the nose" and makes no sense when literally translated, but it is used to mean a good guestimate. When we English speakers would say "off the top of my head" to indicate a spontaneous guestimate, the french say "off the tip of my nose" and the Germans would often say, in order to guestimate, "aus dem Bauch heraus" - or "from my stomach". So, in order to express an instantaneous guestimate based on, well, essentially, intuition, three of the world's best known languages use three different parts of the body to represent "spontaneous". Kinesthetically Cool, eh?

4.) Studies are proving more and more that switching out between two or more languages during the day stimulates more and more parts of the human brain that have barely been researched, and these studies are continuing to show that going back and forth between many languages improves a person's concentration span, both in intensity and in length. In my profession (which I have decided to be a little more mute about on this forum, it was used against me on a former forum, so I have learned my lesson from that one), I often work in 5 or 6 languages a day, including weekends. My little daughter, soon to be 7 years old, is being raised bi-lingually. From me, since the very first moments of her life, she had heard and still hears only English, and from her mother, she hears German. This is something I have been very, very consistent about, in spite of the fact that most of the day, I speak German. This is also part of the reason why I contribute to English speaking boards: it keeps my mother-tongue honed-up, so to speak. And my daughter is really coming along in perfect English these days.

That doesn't mean to me that people who only speak one language are somehow limited. They are not. I know people who speak only English or only German or only Polish, etc., who are absolutely brilliant, but the ability to master more than one language can only be an added plus for anyone who decides to do the shovel-work needed to become fluent in one or more foreign language(s).

So, I just threw four ideas out there and maybe some of my newfound friends and acqaintances here in USMB can add some thoughts - pro and con.

[MENTION=31258]BDBoop[/MENTION] - glad you invited me over, a pleasure. Wait and see if I really fit in here or not.
[MENTION=46181]Davocrat[/MENTION] - one of the finest members the other forum ever had.
[MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] - I have really, really missed you. What a joy to find you again.
[MENTION=45412]Drumhead[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=39702]MisterBeale[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] - freedom, I really like your avatar and your words about our vets!
[MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] - don't know you yet, hope to know you quite well with time.
[MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] - the same, and I like your avatar very much.
[MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] - my instinct tells me that you are a mega-brain. My instincts are not often wrong.
[MENTION=20452]theDoctorisIn[/MENTION] - do I come to you when I have an internet cold?
[MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] - if you are only 1/2 as sweet as bdboop, then we will get along famously.

I think I can safely say I am the newest of the people you listed, but I am damn happy to be in such good company! I am still learning things here, and have not mastered anything really. Even the mention thing, while simple, seems to challenge me. So doing [MENTION=46168]Statistikhengst[/MENTION] may or may not work.

Oh, and - je ne parle pas Francais.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I think I can safely say I am the newest of the people you listed, but I am damn happy to be in such good company! I am still learning things here, and have not mastered anything really. Even the mention thing, while simple, seems to challenge me. So doing [MENTION=46168]Statistikhengst[/MENTION] may or may not work.

Oh, and - je ne parle pas Francais.

[MENTION=45412]Drumhead[/MENTION] - it worked!!!


Enchantee!!!

 

[Drumhead]

OK, I have to admit, when I saw the title of this thread - A numbers kind of guy - the first thing that popped into my head before reading the actual message was - Oh, a pot smoker! Then I read the message, and numbers meant numbers, not the old slang reference to a joint. (Aging myself here with these terms aren't I?)

Have a great day everyone, or night if you are so inclined.

 

[Statistikhengst]

OK, I have to admit, when I saw the title of this thread - A numbers kind of guy - the first thing that popped into my head before reading the actual message was - Oh, a pot smoker! Then I read the message, and numbers meant numbers, not the old slang reference to a joint. (Aging myself here with these terms aren't I?)

Have a great day everyone, or night if you are so inclined.

Damn! I didn't even know that that word was even remotely associated with pot. Am not the tokin type at all....

lol...

 

[Drumhead]

Yeah, I have useless facts that will never win me a dime on Jeopardy.

For those familiar with the song by Steely Dan called "Rikki don't lose that number" - you will know that the song takes on a whole new meaning, when you understand what they were really referring to.
There is also a quick mention of "numbers" in the Cheap Trick song "Surrender", just as another reference point.

It is payday for me, so I am especially happy about numbers (real numbers) today.