A ‘head scratcher’ – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

[daveman]

A ‘head scratcher’ – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

Bloomberg News: August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.

The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.​

The forecast:

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.​

The models are simply wrong.

 

[Abraham3]

It's no head scratcher. It's a kick ass la Nina; the same thing that's cut down surface warming and sliding heat into the deep ocean.

 

[daveman]

It's no head scratcher. It's a kick ass la Nina; the same thing that's cut down surface warming and sliding heat into the deep ocean.

Ahh, yes, in violation of the laws of physics, warm water is sinking.

 

[Saigon]

The models are simply wrong.

And yet the IIPC have specifically said that climate change is not linked to the frequency of hurricanes.

I posted a thread on this some months back.

As per usual, 90% of the attacks on climate change science are made by people who have no idea at all what scientists are saying.

 

[Politico]

Not a head scratcher at all.

 

[Abraham3]

It's no head scratcher. It's a kick ass la Nina; the same thing that's cut down surface warming and sliding heat into the deep ocean.

Ahh, yes, in violation of the laws of physics, warm water is sinking.

Do something for us Dave. Look at the graph below me here. Now turn your gaze to the left hand edge. Good, that's it. Now read the label there. Got it?

Now examine the three line legend there in the upper left. Do you see it? Good.

The average depth of the world's oceans is 3,890 meters. So, the three lines of the graph represent the total heat content of a layer 300 meters thick, a larger layer 700 meters thick and a much larger layer, effectively 7,780 meters thick. Are you actually surprised that this last layer has the largest heat content?

The point the graphic was attempting to convey is that while the entire ocean is warming at a pretty rapid pace (particularly since 1998 when the surface seems to have stabilized in temperature), it is the ocean below 700 meters that has acquired energy the quickest.

But, if you think that three PhDs who did this work and all the other PhDs who reviewed it have all missed that incredibly subtle and little known relationship between temperature and density (having a total of seven syllables twixt the two terms, so we're way out on the edge here), then feel free to write them and warn them that they made a boo-boo.

 

[editec]

A ‘head scratcher’ – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

Bloomberg News: August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.

The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.​

The forecast:

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013

We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.​

The models are simply wrong.

That's right...no hurricanes this August.


Interesting.

All these models are wrong because they are attempting to model a system that is highly complex and one that I strongly suspect we barely understand.

Throw in the *CHAOS factor and making predictions is a real challenge.

* Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.

 

[daveman]

The models are simply wrong.

And yet the IIPC have specifically said that climate change is not linked to the frequency of hurricanes.

I posted a thread on this some months back.

As per usual, 90% of the attacks on climate change science are made by people who have no idea at all what scientists are saying.

The IPCC said that climate change is linked to the intensity of hurricanes.

How's that worked out?

Not so good, looks like.

 

[daveman]

It's no head scratcher. It's a kick ass la Nina; the same thing that's cut down surface warming and sliding heat into the deep ocean.

Ahh, yes, in violation of the laws of physics, warm water is sinking.

Do something for us Dave. Look at the graph below me here. Now turn your gaze to the left hand edge. Good, that's it. Now read the label there. Got it?

Now examine the three line legend there in the upper left. Do you see it? Good.

The average depth of the world's oceans is 3,890 meters. So, the three lines of the graph represent the total heat content of a layer 300 meters thick, a larger layer 700 meters thick and a much larger layer, effectively 7,780 meters thick. Are you actually surprised that this last layer has the largest heat content?

The point the graphic was attempting to convey is that while the entire ocean is warming at a pretty rapid pace (particularly since 1998 when the surface seems to have stabilized in temperature), it is the ocean below 700 meters that has acquired energy the quickest.

But, if you think that three PhDs who did this work and all the other PhDs who reviewed it have all missed that incredibly subtle and little known relationship between temperature and density (having a total of seven syllables twixt the two terms, so we're way out on the edge here), then feel free to write them and warn them that they made a boo-boo.

Like I said: Warm water is sinking.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

AGWCult wins Olympic Gold Medal for back peddling!

Let's drag out those post Katrina quotes

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The ocean ate all the Global Warming

 

[Abraham3]

The models are simply wrong.

And yet the IIPC have specifically said that climate change is not linked to the frequency of hurricanes.

I posted a thread on this some months back.

As per usual, 90% of the attacks on climate change science are made by people who have no idea at all what scientists are saying.

The IPCC said that climate change is linked to the intensity of hurricanes.

How's that worked out?

Not so good, looks like.

The number of hurricanes and the average intensity of hurricanes are two, different and relatively independent parameters.

 

[Abraham3]

Like I said: Warm water is sinking.

No. Warm water is being driven down by altered wind patterns and a reduced amount of cold water is moving down due to disruptions of the Meridional Overturning Current caused by warming and melt water at the poles.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Lol

Sure it is

 

[Abraham3]

This is the sort of thing that convinced me to put you on my Ignore List. I'm glad I made the right decision.

 

[Saigon]

The models are simply wrong.

And yet the IIPC have specifically said that climate change is not linked to the frequency of hurricanes.

I posted a thread on this some months back.

As per usual, 90% of the attacks on climate change science are made by people who have no idea at all what scientists are saying.

The IPCC said that climate change is linked to the intensity of hurricanes.

How's that worked out?

Not so good, looks like.

To the INTENSITY.

NOT to the frequency.

Is that difficult to understand?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

And yet the IIPC have specifically said that climate change is not linked to the frequency of hurricanes.

I posted a thread on this some months back.

As per usual, 90% of the attacks on climate change science are made by people who have no idea at all what scientists are saying.

The IPCC said that climate change is linked to the intensity of hurricanes.

How's that worked out?

Not so good, looks like.

To the INTENSITY.

NOT to the frequency.

Is that difficult to understand?

I see, they're INTENSELY at a record low

 

[ScienceRocks]

It's no head scratcher. It's a kick ass la Nina; the same thing that's cut down surface warming and sliding heat into the deep ocean.

I am a hurricane nut that spent the better part of his youth watching these things...You're talking about NINO for a slow Atlantic.

We currently have a nina.

Stable air is killing this season. Weird season.

 

[skookerasbil]

More k00k losing..........nobody is keeping score, but shit......how many times have these people fucked up their predictions that have crashed and burned? On snow. Drought. Floods.......tornados.......hurricane. These fucks are wrong all the time and it brings zero level of curiosity to the true believers. Fascinating.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

More k00k losing..........nobody is keeping score, but shit......how many times have these people fucked up their predictions that have crashed and burned? On snow. Drought. Floods.......tornados.......hurricane. These fucks are wrong all the time and it brings zero level of curiosity to the true believers. Fascinating.

Then they say, "Oh yeah, just like our model predicted"

More kooks losing, sOn