9.8 ...Unemployment

[georgephillip]

You couldn't be more wrong.

The economy has not recovered. 2.5% economic growth is not a recovery; we need 3% just to keep up with population growth.

The reason it has not recovered is because the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP has increased by 25% in the past two years. The Feds sucked the oxygen out of the private sector.

We're in agreement that the economy has not recovered; however, I'm not sure if your reason about the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP makes as much sense as Dean Baker's autopsy of the President's Fiscal Commission:

"The country has a large deficit today because the collapse of the housing bubble wrecked the economy.

"This is simple and obvious to everyone familiar with the dynamics of the budget and the economy.

"If the unemployment rate were at its pre-recession level of 4.5 percent, we would have, at most, a modest deficit.

"Furthermore, the story of out of control government spending is entirely an invention of people with an agenda to pursue. In 1980, non-interest spending (?) was 19.8 percent of GDP.

"The Congressional Budget Office projects that it will rise to 21.1 percent of GDP in 2020 under President Obama's budget.

"An increase in spending of 1.3 percentage points of GDP over 40 years hardly qualifies as out of control.

"Much of any additional revenue needed can be obtained by a tax on Wall Street financial speculation.

"Remarkably, the commission's co-director's apparently never considered this obvious source of revenue."

* And who was it that forced that condition? Whom caused it? Gubmint threatening banks to comply to give loans to people that couldn't repay the loans.

Care to explain how legislation passed in 1977 led to a housing bubble's collapse in 2008?

In December 2008 FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair argued the exact opposite:

"'I want to give you my verdict on CRA: NOT guilty,' said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, according to a press release by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

"Before the Consumer Federation of America, Bair said Thursday she wanted to clear up the 'myth' that the Community Reinvestment Act caused the financial crisis — and she set out to do so with vigor.

"The Community Reinvestment Act — or CRA — is a federal law designed to encourage commercial banks and savings associations to meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

"It has largely been criticized by conservative members of the GOP as promoting predatory lending practices."

"'Point in fact,'" she said, "'only one in four higher-priced first mortgage loans were made by CRA-covered banks during the hey-day years of subprime mortgage lending.

"'The rest were made by private independent mortgage companies and large bank affiliates not covered by CRA rules.'"

FDIC's Bair Sets...

 

[boedicca]

How is posting the different levels of unemployment calculated by the BLS - which pinqy has explained many times - evidence that the government is manipulating and lying about its data?

can you link to where he has explained this please?

Search through all of his posts. You will find it. Most of pinqy's posts are correcting people's misconceptions about how the economic numbers - usually unemployment - are calculated, at least what I've read.

Scuze me, but you are the one making this claim.

It's up to you to search and link to the posts that you believe prove pinqy to be a shining light of economic and statistical expertise.

 

[boedicca]

The economy has recovered. There are no jobs because thanks to you free traders, we have an economy that doesn't require mass amounts of labor to run, and expand.

You couldn't be more wrong.

The economy has not recovered. 2.5% economic growth is not a recovery; we need 3% just to keep up with population growth.

The reason it has not recovered is because the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP has increased by 25% in the past two years. The Feds sucked the oxygen out of the private sector.

We're in agreement that the economy has not recovered; however, I'm not sure if your reason about the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP makes as much sense as Dean Baker's autopsy of the President's Fiscal Commission:

"The country has a large deficit today because the collapse of the housing bubble wrecked the economy.

"This is simple and obvious to everyone familiar with the dynamics of the budget and the economy.

"If the unemployment rate were at its pre-recession level of 4.5 percent, we would have, at most, a modest deficit.

"Furthermore, the story of out of control government spending is entirely an invention of people with an agenda to pursue. In 1980, non-interest spending (?) was 19.8 percent of GDP.

"The Congressional Budget Office projects that it will rise to 21.1 percent of GDP in 2020 under President Obama's budget.

"An increase in spending of 1.3 percentage points of GDP over 40 years hardly qualifies as out of control.

"Much of any additional revenue needed can be obtained by a tax on Wall Street financial speculation.

"Remarkably, the commission's co-director's apparently never considered this obvious source of revenue."

You're overooking the fact that the Housing Bubble and Collapse are due to Big Government mangling of the economy in the first place.

 

[Lumpy 1]

BLS publishes their methodology. Shadowstats' John Williams does not collect his own data (they use BLS data) and doesn't publish his methodology. To get his 22 percent he would have to include more people as unemployed than people who say they want to work (regardless of other factors/classifications). And that makes no sense at all.

okay, so what number would you stand by?

Here's U-6 from 1994:

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

 

[Trajan]

And for political gain.

Post proof.

He means that the Bush administration did it for 8 years to conceal the fact that unemployment never really got below 8% for almost the entire time of the Bush 'prosperity'.

looking at that graph pinqy, it looks pretty much a wash between the 2...so if one concealed so did the other...and it did get enacted under who?

 

[Mr Natural]

With an increasing population and a decreasing job base, ten percent unemployment is the new norm. And neither government or business is willing or able to do anything about it.

Better get used to it.

It is patently unacceptable. Government needs to cease spending on the forced utopia and get out of the way of the producers of this nation that know how to get things done.

You people need to face reality.

Americans workers cannot compete with Chinese workers. Unless of course they're willing to work for a lot less.

 

[boedicca]

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

It's also quite telling that Bush didn't spend the first two years of his administration whinging about how he Inherited The Recession from Clinton.

 

[loosecannon]

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

It's also quite telling that Bush didn't spend the first two years of his administration whinging about how he Inherited The Recession from Clinton.

no, his board bushbots did that for him.....

 

[The T]

We're in agreement that the economy has not recovered; however, I'm not sure if your reason about the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP makes as much sense as Dean Baker's autopsy of the President's Fiscal Commission:

"The country has a large deficit today because the collapse of the housing bubble wrecked the economy.

"This is simple and obvious to everyone familiar with the dynamics of the budget and the economy.

"If the unemployment rate were at its pre-recession level of 4.5 percent, we would have, at most, a modest deficit.

"Furthermore, the story of out of control government spending is entirely an invention of people with an agenda to pursue. In 1980, non-interest spending (?) was 19.8 percent of GDP.

"The Congressional Budget Office projects that it will rise to 21.1 percent of GDP in 2020 under President Obama's budget.

"An increase in spending of 1.3 percentage points of GDP over 40 years hardly qualifies as out of control.

"Much of any additional revenue needed can be obtained by a tax on Wall Street financial speculation.

"Remarkably, the commission's co-director's apparently never considered this obvious source of revenue."

* And who was it that forced that condition? Whom caused it? Gubmint threatening banks to comply to give loans to people that couldn't repay the loans.

Care to explain how legislation passed in 1977 led to a housing bubble's collapse in 2008?

In December 2008 FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair argued the exact opposite:

"'I want to give you my verdict on CRA: NOT guilty,' said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, according to a press release by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

"Before the Consumer Federation of America, Bair said Thursday she wanted to clear up the 'myth' that the Community Reinvestment Act caused the financial crisis — and she set out to do so with vigor.

"The Community Reinvestment Act — or CRA — is a federal law designed to encourage commercial banks and savings associations to meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

"It has largely been criticized by conservative members of the GOP as promoting predatory lending practices."

"'Point in fact,'" she said, "'only one in four higher-priced first mortgage loans were made by CRA-covered banks during the hey-day years of subprime mortgage lending.

"'The rest were made by private independent mortgage companies and large bank affiliates not covered by CRA rules.'"

FDIC's Bair Sets...

Just forget Gubmint manipulation. I'll Take "What is the FAIR HOUSING ACT" For $1,000 Alex.

Would you please stop? What does FDIC have to do with FHA? Oh yeah...they're GUBMINT

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Democrats just don't have credibility on Economic issues. They lost all their credibility back when they claimed we were in a "Depression" with Bush's 4% Unemployment Rate. They screeched that 'Sky is Falling' gloom & doom 24/7. They undermined everything. Now look at em spinning their disastrous 10% Unemployment Rate. I wont trust Democrats on Economic issues ever again. That's just how i feel anyway.

 

[georgephillip]

* And who was it that forced that condition? Whom caused it? Gubmint threatening banks to comply to give loans to people that couldn't repay the loans.

Care to explain how legislation passed in 1977 led to a housing bubble's collapse in 2008?

In December 2008 FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair argued the exact opposite:

"'I want to give you my verdict on CRA: NOT guilty,' said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, according to a press release by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

"Before the Consumer Federation of America, Bair said Thursday she wanted to clear up the 'myth' that the Community Reinvestment Act caused the financial crisis — and she set out to do so with vigor.

"The Community Reinvestment Act — or CRA — is a federal law designed to encourage commercial banks and savings associations to meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

"It has largely been criticized by conservative members of the GOP as promoting predatory lending practices."

"'Point in fact,'" she said, "'only one in four higher-priced first mortgage loans were made by CRA-covered banks during the hey-day years of subprime mortgage lending.

"'The rest were made by private independent mortgage companies and large bank affiliates not covered by CRA rules.'"

FDIC's Bair Sets...

Just forget Gubmint manipulation. I'll Take "What is the FAIR HOUSING ACT" For $1,000 Alex.

Would you please stop? What does FDIC have to do with FHA? Oh yeah...they're GUBMINT

Has any Federal legislation ever required banks to NOT verify income or payment history of mortgage applicants?

Did the FHA force Moody's, S&P, and Fitch to rate junk paper as Triple AAA?

What arm of "Gubmint" required "No Money Down" mortgages?

The housing bubble formed because big business (Wall Street) and big government (Republicans AND Democrats) knew how to socialize cost and privatize profit.

And they are still at it while we argue about big vs little government or the distinctions without differences between Republicans AND Democrats.

 

[asterism]

That's not how I would classify underemployed. Underemployed is working materially below one's skill and knowledge level. If someone is unskilled and only able to earn a low wage, then that's the value of his abilities.

A reasonable paying low-skill job is either available, or isn't available. Most low-skill people (And some skilled, but unable to find appropriate work) wind up in retail, if employed at all. Wages are low and advancement opportunities few. Since manufacturing is gone, that's virtually all that's available, and corresponding wages have been driven down.

I'd describe such people as underemployed.

Meanwhile migrant workers here are making $10 an hour picking fruit. "I'm not going to do that, I have a college degree."

Let's not forget the group who are choosing to be unemployed.

 

[asterism]

With an increasing population and a decreasing job base, ten percent unemployment is the new norm. And neither government or business is willing or able to do anything about it.

Better get used to it.

It is patently unacceptable. Government needs to cease spending on the forced utopia and get out of the way of the producers of this nation that know how to get things done.

You people need to face reality.

Americans workers cannot compete with Chinese workers. Unless of course they're willing to work for a lot less.

Then perhaps we need to stop trying to resurrect a business model that isn't viable. If we can't compete with China (I disagree, I think we can), let's do something else.

 

[Trajan]

Has any Federal legislation ever required banks to NOT verify income or payment history of mortgage applicants?

Did the FHA force Moody's, S&P, and Fitch to rate junk paper as Triple AAA?

What arm of "Gubmint" required "No Money Down" mortgages?

The housing bubble formed because big business (Wall Street) and big government (Republicans AND Democrats) knew how to socialize cost and privatize profit.

And they are still at it while we argue about big vs little government or the distinctions without differences between Republicans AND Democrats.

yes that is all true imho.

you are however George missing one important, point imho; there is one sect, grp. clique of folks with a common ideology/ political philosophy which simply put is; they will transfer as much as they can wring from the 'haves', via gov. machinations to the 'have nots', and despite any overall harm to the collective body they can,
even in the face of evidence of such.


Have others whom don't believe in same gone along(?), certainly ( and they were certainly equally craven). But in the end its a matter of ideological identity, as you can see right this moment over the tax issue.

Tis but a step from the sublime to the ridiculous.

 

[NYcarbineer]

okay, so what number would you stand by?

Here's U-6 from 1994:

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

What Bush inherited wasn't anything even close to the economic mess that we fell into in the years prior to Obama's election. To suggest the two are comparable is ludicrous.

 

[NYcarbineer]

You couldn't be more wrong.

The economy has not recovered. 2.5% economic growth is not a recovery; we need 3% just to keep up with population growth.

The reason it has not recovered is because the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP has increased by 25% in the past two years. The Feds sucked the oxygen out of the private sector.

We're in agreement that the economy has not recovered; however, I'm not sure if your reason about the size of the Federal Government as a % of GDP makes as much sense as Dean Baker's autopsy of the President's Fiscal Commission:

"The country has a large deficit today because the collapse of the housing bubble wrecked the economy.

"This is simple and obvious to everyone familiar with the dynamics of the budget and the economy.

"If the unemployment rate were at its pre-recession level of 4.5 percent, we would have, at most, a modest deficit.

"Furthermore, the story of out of control government spending is entirely an invention of people with an agenda to pursue. In 1980, non-interest spending (?) was 19.8 percent of GDP.

"The Congressional Budget Office projects that it will rise to 21.1 percent of GDP in 2020 under President Obama's budget.

"An increase in spending of 1.3 percentage points of GDP over 40 years hardly qualifies as out of control.

"Much of any additional revenue needed can be obtained by a tax on Wall Street financial speculation.

"Remarkably, the commission's co-director's apparently never considered this obvious source of revenue."

You're overooking the fact that the Housing Bubble and Collapse are due to Big Government mangling of the economy in the first place.

No. The housing bubble was caused by a combination of seller's greed and buyer's ignorance.

 

[Meister]

Here's U-6 from 1994:

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

What Bush inherited wasn't anything even close to the economic mess that we fell into in the years prior to Obama's election. To suggest the two are comparable is ludicrous.

Interesting things look pretty good on that graph, until the Dems took over both Houses. Just an observation.......

 

[boedicca]

Has any Federal legislation ever required banks to NOT verify income or payment history of mortgage applicants?

Did the FHA force Moody's, S&P, and Fitch to rate junk paper as Triple AAA?

What arm of "Gubmint" required "No Money Down" mortgages?

The housing bubble formed because big business (Wall Street) and big government (Republicans AND Democrats) knew how to socialize cost and privatize profit.

And they are still at it while we argue about big vs little government or the distinctions without differences between Republicans AND Democrats.

The Boston Fed wrote a paper that said banks should disregard standard credit worthiness criteria for low income minorities. The regulatory bodies then used that as a hammer to deny charters for banks that did not comply.

And so credit standards for everyone ended up being eliminated.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Bush inherited a recession.. I'm thinking he handled it far better than Obama/Democrats...but interestingly the Democrats still bitched about Bush.. makes you wonder..

What Bush inherited wasn't anything even close to the economic mess that we fell into in the years prior to Obama's election. To suggest the two are comparable is ludicrous.

Interesting things look pretty good on that graph, until the Dems took over both Houses. Just an observation.......

A meaningless observation.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

If the Democrats called Bush's 4% Unemployment Rate a "Depression",what the hell are they calling their 10% Unemployment mess? Yikes!