Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
Some details that may be very interesting:
In 2012:
1.) Barack Obama and Joe Biden were the were first black President and Catholic Vice-President, respectively, to win a re-election ever in the history of the Union.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2.) Mitt Romney was the first presidential nominee of a major party who was a Mormon, but not the first Mormon candidate for President: George Romney (R-1967), Mo Udall (D-1976), Orrin Hatch (R-2000).
In fact, the founder of the Mormon faith (or subset of Christianity, or sect, if you will, whichever term you prefer), Joseph Smith, was an independent Presidential candidate in 1844, with an extremely exotic platform which included assigning the Vice-President powers to quell mobs, make the USA a one-party state (yes, communism), reduce the Congress by 2/3 (2 Senators per state but only 1 rep per 1,000,000 people!), reduce congressional salaries to $2.00 plus room/board, and release the slaves. Apparently, Mr. Smith's campaign went all of nowhere, because he got no more than 2,083 votes in 1844 (0.08% of the NPV), assuming that every single vote for "other" was for him, and in 1844, only two states had an appreciable amount of votes for "other": Illinois (where he had been released from prison) and Massachusetts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3.) It was the first time ever that two Catholic Vice-Presidential candidates were squared against each other (Joe Biden and Paul Ryan). So, in a major twist of irony, the only candidate on the two major tickets who was listed as a Protestant was: President Obama
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.) Was one of the very few times ever where both candidates from the the losing ticket lost all of their "home" states (states of birth, states of residence), and perhaps the only time ever where this happened during a relatively close election.
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: How often have losing presidential tickets lost their respective home states?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Numbers stuff:
5.) 2012 was the first presidential election in a long while where the incumbent won with a lesser margin of victory than in the cycle before. But this needs some explaining:
In 2008, Obama won by +7.26% in margin in the NPV. In 2012, he won by +3.86%.
3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40
This means that Obama lost 3.40% on margin, or, in electionspeak, the nation "SWUNG" +3.40% to the Right in 2012.
Technically, the last time where a sitting President whose name was one both ballots for the top-slot was re-elected by a lesser margin was: Woodrow Wilson, in 1916. But Wilson went from the most interesting 3-man race in our Union's history to a straight 2-man race in 1916.
Harry Truman's name was on the ballot in both 1944 and 1948, but for Vice-President in 1944 and then for President in 1948, but the stats are very interesting:
In 1944, Roosevelt/Truman won by +7.49%. In 1948, Truman/Barkley won by +4.48%.
4.48 - 7.49 = -3.01
This means that the nation swung +3.01% to the RIGHT in 1948, very, very similar to the 2012 statistic. It's not a perfect comparison, but since Truman served out virtually all of FDR's fourth term upon FDR's death, I am pretty sure that 1948 really felt like a true re-election campaign.
Strangely enough, there is one more possible comparison that most people don't know: Abraham Lincoln.
Lincoln was elected by [B]+10.13%[/COLOR][/B] in 1860 and again by +10.08%[/COLOR] in 1864.
10.08 - 10.13 = -0.05
Technically, the nation swung +0.05% to the LEFT in 1864, but Lincoln went from a bitter four man race in 1860 to a clear cut two man race, with only half the Union present, in 1864. Amazingly, there were only ca. 660,00 less votes in 1864 than in 1860. In fact, the total voter turnout in 1864 looks almost exactly like 1856, 8 years before. And 0.05% is statiistically insignificant, but technically counts as a loss in margin.
Source for the above information:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=national&year=1844&f=1&off=0&elect=0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.) In 2012, there were majority wins in more states than in 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992. The only state that was a minority win in 2012 was Florida, a high minority win: Obama 49.90%[/B] / Romney 49.03%, margin: Obama +0.87%. In 2008, there were 4 minority wins (2 for Obama, 2 for McCain), in 2004 there were 3 minority wins (1 for Bush, 2 for Kerry), in 2000 there were 10 minority wins (6 for Gore, 4 for Bush), in 1996, there were 25 minority wins (13 for Clinton, 12 for Dole) and in 1992 there were a whopping 49 minority wins! You have to go back to 1988, with all majority wins on both sides, and 1984, with only one minority win (Mondale, Minnesota). So, in spite of the margin being leaner in 2012, there were actually more majority wins.
Source: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2012 and the history of MINORITY state wins
There is lots of fascinating reading in the above link, good stuff for all sides of the political spectrum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.) In spite of being called 18 minutes later in 2012 for Obama than the race was called in 2008 - more states were actually settled earlier in the night in 2012 than in 2008:
When Virginia was called for Obama at 12:42 am on November 7th, only Alaska (to be called 18 minutes later) and Florida were still out:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wzpTPiD_ElT2uPNdoHwCkmCJeNLiS6YbqFP7SvtGI9I/edit?usp=sharing
As of 1 am, therefore, only Florida was still not called.
In 2008, at 1 am during election night, Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska-02 were still not called. (5 states)
In 2004, at 1 am during election night, Washington State, Hawaii, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and ME-02 were still not called (11 states).
In 2000, at 1 am during election night, Oregon, Florida and Wisconsin were not called (3 states). Then Florida was called for Bush and then the call was retracted. And the AP retracted the call for New Mexico on November 10th and then NM SOS called the race for Gore in that state on November 30.
In 1996, at 1 am on election night, Nevada, Montana, Colorado and Georgia were not yet called (4 states).
In 1992, at 1 am on election night, Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Texas, Kansas, North Carolina and Florida were not yet called (8 states).
So, in spite of the fact that 2012 was a leaner Obama win that in 2008, the night was actually settled early in 2012 than in the five presidential cycles before it!
Source:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: CNN Presidential Election calls 1992-2012: a timeline study
(lots and lots of interesting information in the link above, really unique stuff).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.) Obama is the first re-elected incumbent since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 to win both of his elections with over 51% of the NPV. Ronald Reagan did not hit 51% in 1980, both of Bill Clinton's and Woodrow Wilson's wins were minority wins, Richard Nixon's first win was a low minority win, Harry Truman was elected in his own right with a minority win, LBJ won in 1964 with the highest winning percentage ever in our history (61.04%), but on the Kennedy/LBJ ticket of 1960, it was a minority win.
In fact, only four presidents in all of our history have been elected twice (or more) with over 51% of the NPV both time:
Obama (2008, 2012), Eisenhower (1952, 1956), FDR (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944) and Grant (1868, 1872). So, history has shown us that getting over 51% nationally is more of a feat than people may realize.
Reference source: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9.) Obama is the only president in history to take the oath of office twice for each term:
In January 2009, when Chief Justice Roberts botched the reciting of the oath of office, Obama re-took the oath the next day.
And in January 2013, since January 20th fell on a Sunday and the Inauguration was held on Monday, January 21st, Obama took the oath in private on that Sunday and then again in public on Monday. Ditto for VP Biden.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hope you enjoyed those statistical tidbits!
In 2012:
1.) Barack Obama and Joe Biden were the were first black President and Catholic Vice-President, respectively, to win a re-election ever in the history of the Union.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2.) Mitt Romney was the first presidential nominee of a major party who was a Mormon, but not the first Mormon candidate for President: George Romney (R-1967), Mo Udall (D-1976), Orrin Hatch (R-2000).
In fact, the founder of the Mormon faith (or subset of Christianity, or sect, if you will, whichever term you prefer), Joseph Smith, was an independent Presidential candidate in 1844, with an extremely exotic platform which included assigning the Vice-President powers to quell mobs, make the USA a one-party state (yes, communism), reduce the Congress by 2/3 (2 Senators per state but only 1 rep per 1,000,000 people!), reduce congressional salaries to $2.00 plus room/board, and release the slaves. Apparently, Mr. Smith's campaign went all of nowhere, because he got no more than 2,083 votes in 1844 (0.08% of the NPV), assuming that every single vote for "other" was for him, and in 1844, only two states had an appreciable amount of votes for "other": Illinois (where he had been released from prison) and Massachusetts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3.) It was the first time ever that two Catholic Vice-Presidential candidates were squared against each other (Joe Biden and Paul Ryan). So, in a major twist of irony, the only candidate on the two major tickets who was listed as a Protestant was: President Obama
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.) Was one of the very few times ever where both candidates from the the losing ticket lost all of their "home" states (states of birth, states of residence), and perhaps the only time ever where this happened during a relatively close election.
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: How often have losing presidential tickets lost their respective home states?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Numbers stuff:
5.) 2012 was the first presidential election in a long while where the incumbent won with a lesser margin of victory than in the cycle before. But this needs some explaining:
In 2008, Obama won by +7.26% in margin in the NPV. In 2012, he won by +3.86%.
3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40
This means that Obama lost 3.40% on margin, or, in electionspeak, the nation "SWUNG" +3.40% to the Right in 2012.
Technically, the last time where a sitting President whose name was one both ballots for the top-slot was re-elected by a lesser margin was: Woodrow Wilson, in 1916. But Wilson went from the most interesting 3-man race in our Union's history to a straight 2-man race in 1916.
Harry Truman's name was on the ballot in both 1944 and 1948, but for Vice-President in 1944 and then for President in 1948, but the stats are very interesting:
In 1944, Roosevelt/Truman won by +7.49%. In 1948, Truman/Barkley won by +4.48%.
4.48 - 7.49 = -3.01
This means that the nation swung +3.01% to the RIGHT in 1948, very, very similar to the 2012 statistic. It's not a perfect comparison, but since Truman served out virtually all of FDR's fourth term upon FDR's death, I am pretty sure that 1948 really felt like a true re-election campaign.
Strangely enough, there is one more possible comparison that most people don't know: Abraham Lincoln.
Lincoln was elected by [B]+10.13%[/COLOR][/B] in 1860 and again by +10.08%[/COLOR] in 1864.
10.08 - 10.13 = -0.05
Technically, the nation swung +0.05% to the LEFT in 1864, but Lincoln went from a bitter four man race in 1860 to a clear cut two man race, with only half the Union present, in 1864. Amazingly, there were only ca. 660,00 less votes in 1864 than in 1860. In fact, the total voter turnout in 1864 looks almost exactly like 1856, 8 years before. And 0.05% is statiistically insignificant, but technically counts as a loss in margin.
Source for the above information:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=national&year=1844&f=1&off=0&elect=0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.) In 2012, there were majority wins in more states than in 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992. The only state that was a minority win in 2012 was Florida, a high minority win: Obama 49.90%[/B] / Romney 49.03%, margin: Obama +0.87%. In 2008, there were 4 minority wins (2 for Obama, 2 for McCain), in 2004 there were 3 minority wins (1 for Bush, 2 for Kerry), in 2000 there were 10 minority wins (6 for Gore, 4 for Bush), in 1996, there were 25 minority wins (13 for Clinton, 12 for Dole) and in 1992 there were a whopping 49 minority wins! You have to go back to 1988, with all majority wins on both sides, and 1984, with only one minority win (Mondale, Minnesota). So, in spite of the margin being leaner in 2012, there were actually more majority wins.
Source: Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2012 and the history of MINORITY state wins
There is lots of fascinating reading in the above link, good stuff for all sides of the political spectrum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.) In spite of being called 18 minutes later in 2012 for Obama than the race was called in 2008 - more states were actually settled earlier in the night in 2012 than in 2008:
When Virginia was called for Obama at 12:42 am on November 7th, only Alaska (to be called 18 minutes later) and Florida were still out:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wzpTPiD_ElT2uPNdoHwCkmCJeNLiS6YbqFP7SvtGI9I/edit?usp=sharing
As of 1 am, therefore, only Florida was still not called.
In 2008, at 1 am during election night, Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska-02 were still not called. (5 states)
In 2004, at 1 am during election night, Washington State, Hawaii, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and ME-02 were still not called (11 states).
In 2000, at 1 am during election night, Oregon, Florida and Wisconsin were not called (3 states). Then Florida was called for Bush and then the call was retracted. And the AP retracted the call for New Mexico on November 10th and then NM SOS called the race for Gore in that state on November 30.
In 1996, at 1 am on election night, Nevada, Montana, Colorado and Georgia were not yet called (4 states).
In 1992, at 1 am on election night, Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Texas, Kansas, North Carolina and Florida were not yet called (8 states).
So, in spite of the fact that 2012 was a leaner Obama win that in 2008, the night was actually settled early in 2012 than in the five presidential cycles before it!
Source:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: CNN Presidential Election calls 1992-2012: a timeline study
(lots and lots of interesting information in the link above, really unique stuff).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8.) Obama is the first re-elected incumbent since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 to win both of his elections with over 51% of the NPV. Ronald Reagan did not hit 51% in 1980, both of Bill Clinton's and Woodrow Wilson's wins were minority wins, Richard Nixon's first win was a low minority win, Harry Truman was elected in his own right with a minority win, LBJ won in 1964 with the highest winning percentage ever in our history (61.04%), but on the Kennedy/LBJ ticket of 1960, it was a minority win.
In fact, only four presidents in all of our history have been elected twice (or more) with over 51% of the NPV both time:
Obama (2008, 2012), Eisenhower (1952, 1956), FDR (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944) and Grant (1868, 1872). So, history has shown us that getting over 51% nationally is more of a feat than people may realize.
Reference source: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9.) Obama is the only president in history to take the oath of office twice for each term:
In January 2009, when Chief Justice Roberts botched the reciting of the oath of office, Obama re-took the oath the next day.
And in January 2013, since January 20th fell on a Sunday and the Inauguration was held on Monday, January 21st, Obama took the oath in private on that Sunday and then again in public on Monday. Ditto for VP Biden.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hope you enjoyed those statistical tidbits!
Last edited:
