5.7 million illegal votes

[eagle1462010]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

 

[eagle1462010]

Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates

The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?

The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”

While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.



I again ask how we 68 million into this country over 3 decades from the report I already posted.

This Yale study disagrees..........for the DHS numbers.

 

[eagle1462010]

How many illegal aliens reside in the United States? | CAIRCO - Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform | issues legislation projects research

Nancy Boulton observes that:

Estimates of the size of the illegal alien population currently living in the U.S. range from about 12 million to over 20 million. The lower number is based on Census Bureau estimates of the foreign-born population in various Census Bureau surveys. The larger number is based on methodology that is not reliant on a respondent’s candor... it is virtually impossible to get an accurate count of populations who are resistant to being identified. Given the problem of porous borders and incentives to avoid detection, the higher estimate is not unreasonable.5
Indeed, U.S. Border Patrol Local 2544 stated in July of 2005:

“There are currently 15 to 20 million illegal aliens in this country by many estimates, but the real numbers could be much higher and the numbers increase every day because our borders are not secure (no matter what the politicians tell you—don’t believe them for a second).

 

[eagle1462010]

http://www.un.org/en/development/de...eport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf

Page 6......UN report shows migration of 15 million here from 2000 to 2017...........and of course the UN will only use data from DHS.........lol

I don't buy the numbers.........and the UN report showed a total at that point to 49.8 million into the United States by 2017.

The other one I showed was from further back showing 68 million.......into the United States.

 

[Faun]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

 

[eagle1462010]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Yet they and others discount the inaccurate methods of the other..........both are estimated........ICE can't even find those who overstay their visa's or who missed the court dates........kinda lost into the United States.

 

[Faun]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Yet they and others discount the inaccurate methods of the other..........both are estimated........ICE can't even find those who overstay their visa's or who missed the court dates........kinda lost into the United States.

There’s the census, DHS, and Pew polling; all of which are in line with each other, have been consistent with each other over many years, and none of them have a range that can be off by as much as 100%. That’s pretty ludicrous.

 

[eagle1462010]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Yet they and others discount the inaccurate methods of the other..........both are estimated........ICE can't even find those who overstay their visa's or who missed the court dates........kinda lost into the United States.

There’s the census, DHS, and Pew polling; all of which are in line with each other and none of them have a range that can be off by as much as 100%. That’s pretty ludicrous.

Census shows a massive population increase.......as I've shown..........Are they doing the deed like rabbits now..........LOL

I showed data that you dismissed of about 1.2 million for 2017 alone.......overstays which happen every year..........and those waiting the back log in Immigration courts where many never show up................

Where did the population boom come from.........I've shown 2 reports with numbers along the same lines............They show about a million a year for 3 decades coming here..................How many aren't counted..............for every one they catch at the border how many get across that they can't record.......THEY HAVE TO GUESS............and the census shows massive population increases here via migration............

 

[Faun]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Yet they and others discount the inaccurate methods of the other..........both are estimated........ICE can't even find those who overstay their visa's or who missed the court dates........kinda lost into the United States.

There’s the census, DHS, and Pew polling; all of which are in line with each other and none of them have a range that can be off by as much as 100%. That’s pretty ludicrous.

Census shows a massive population increase.......as I've shown..........Are they doing the deed like rabbits now..........LOL

I showed data that you dismissed of about 1.2 million for 2017 alone.......overstays which happen every year..........and those waiting the back log in Immigration courts where many never show up................

Where did the population boom come from.........I've shown 2 reports with numbers along the same lines............They show about a million a year for 3 decades coming here..................How many aren't counted..............for every one they catch at the border how many get across that they can't record.......THEY HAVE TO GUESS............and the census shows massive population increases here via migration............

Census shows an increase in non-citizens. Illegal border crossers don’t follow that pattern or rate.

 

[eagle1462010]

Yale Study

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.

Yup, those are numbers. Highly improbable and even questionable given the range and their methodology; but they are numbers.

For one thing, their method includes counting every border crossing as a unique individual. Highly flawed presumption as many border crossers cross multiple times. And just the fact that it’s based on assumptions means every flawed assumption impacts their final results exponentially — which explains why their ultimate range is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Yet they and others discount the inaccurate methods of the other..........both are estimated........ICE can't even find those who overstay their visa's or who missed the court dates........kinda lost into the United States.

There’s the census, DHS, and Pew polling; all of which are in line with each other and none of them have a range that can be off by as much as 100%. That’s pretty ludicrous.

Census shows a massive population increase.......as I've shown..........Are they doing the deed like rabbits now..........LOL

I showed data that you dismissed of about 1.2 million for 2017 alone.......overstays which happen every year..........and those waiting the back log in Immigration courts where many never show up................

Where did the population boom come from.........I've shown 2 reports with numbers along the same lines............They show about a million a year for 3 decades coming here..................How many aren't counted..............for every one they catch at the border how many get across that they can't record.......THEY HAVE TO GUESS............and the census shows massive population increases here via migration............

Census shows an increase in non-citizens. Illegal border crossers don’t follow that pattern or rate.

Those that overstay there visa's are here illegally as well..........and they are as much or more of a number increase as those crossing the border.

Since they can't find them.........how the hell do they count them.........They only get deported when they are in the data base and pulled over for speeding or running a stop sign ............They blend in............

 

[toobfreak]

I didn't make up the 1.2 million for 2017 or the population numbers.

Where did they come from. So i don't accept the other numbers. I believe they are much higher.

LOLOL

You’re making up the numbers right now. You never posted anything that said 1.2 million foreigners overstayed their visas. You posted that number was 606,000 for 2017.

Agsin, I’m not going to make up numbers like you are. I’m going with the official numbers on record by the Department which knows how many people overstayed their visas.

LOLOLOL, everything with this jerk is LOLOL, everybody else is lying, wrong, making stuff up or a moonbat? Faun's an expert on everyone but himself. He knows everything, proves nothing, claims all, has nothing, and talks like a broken record. For all you post here, I've yet to see you show a damned thing to support your claims.

LOL

Yeah, I can’t help that you lions crack me up. It’s why I post here.

And now you’re lying that I never prove my claims. In response to you lying about how you think you haven’t posted more than a few dozen times in badland threads, I showed you did so 3 dozen times in the last week alone. And I proved it with a link to your posting history there.

No one's interested in your fantasies, Faun, much less what threads I post to or your imaginary links. Either stick to the topic, add something to it or STFU.

Better yet, go fuck yourself, ya batshit insane con. As far as the thread topic, there is still no evidence to support it beyond the made up numbers by Just Facts and nothing new has been introduced to change that.

There is CLEARLY much supporting circumstantial evidence that has been shown over the years, just no conclusive absolute proof of the numbers until Voter ID is made the law in all 50 states contingent upon proof of citizenship. The very fact that many counties have been shown to have many more votes tallied than registered people even living in the county is a good place to start. ITMT, if you can absolutely prove that large numbers of illegals are NOT voting, I'd love to see it and wonder why you still haven't presented it? Bottom line: it far more stretches credulity to deny the possibility than to accept it.

 

[danielpalos]

If illegals vote; the right wing has to prove they all voted blue and not red; especially in low population red States.

 

[Faun]

LOLOL

You’re making up the numbers right now. You never posted anything that said 1.2 million foreigners overstayed their visas. You posted that number was 606,000 for 2017.

Agsin, I’m not going to make up numbers like you are. I’m going with the official numbers on record by the Department which knows how many people overstayed their visas.

LOLOLOL, everything with this jerk is LOLOL, everybody else is lying, wrong, making stuff up or a moonbat? Faun's an expert on everyone but himself. He knows everything, proves nothing, claims all, has nothing, and talks like a broken record. For all you post here, I've yet to see you show a damned thing to support your claims.

LOL

Yeah, I can’t help that you lions crack me up. It’s why I post here.

And now you’re lying that I never prove my claims. In response to you lying about how you think you haven’t posted more than a few dozen times in badland threads, I showed you did so 3 dozen times in the last week alone. And I proved it with a link to your posting history there.

No one's interested in your fantasies, Faun, much less what threads I post to or your imaginary links. Either stick to the topic, add something to it or STFU.

Better yet, go fuck yourself, ya batshit insane con. As far as the thread topic, there is still no evidence to support it beyond the made up numbers by Just Facts and nothing new has been introduced to change that.

There is CLEARLY much supporting circumstantial evidence that has been shown over the years, just no conclusive absolute proof of the numbers until Voter ID is made the law in all 50 states contingent upon proof of citizenship. The very fact that many counties have been shown to have many more votes tallied than registered people even living in the county is a good place to start. ITMT, if you can absolutely prove that large numbers of illegals are NOT voting, I'd love to see it and wonder why you still haven't presented it? Bottom line: it far more stretches credulity to deny the possibility than to accept it.

LOL

Spits the batshit insane poster who denied saying this was proven after saying it was proven.

You were shown the official figures by the DHS. You don’t have to accept them but don’t expect others to accept the phony numbers you’re trying to peddle. Meanwhile, you still have no proof of your bullshit claim that nearly 6 million illegal aliens voted. Shit, you can’t even show that nearly 6 million illegal aliens are registered to vote.



As far as there being counties with more votes tallied than registered voters, let’s see your evidence...