2014 Senate Elections: How the GOP Can Reclaim It

[Hoosier4Liberty]

I keep hearing about the "death" of the GOP and how they're going to lose big in 2014.
But let's look at the Senate map.
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate


Right now, we're at a 45/55 split between R/D in the Senate.
Even now, despite the fact that GOP's approval ratings are down right now (thanks to the liberal media's narrative of the shutdown being the Republican Party's fault), the GOP is projected to pick up at least 3 Senate seats in the states of West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. These states all voted solidly for Romney, especially West Virginia, a state in which every single county went for Mitt (even Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and Mike Dukakis could win a few counties in WV(Dukakis even carried the state); but not Obama!)
In addition, the 2 "toss-up" races in Alaska and Arkansas are both in deep-red states.

If the GOP approval ratings pick up, as they likely will given the Obamacare roll-out headlines, then these "toss-up" states would shift to the GOP column.

This would get us to a 50/50 split. Then, all we would have to do to take back the Senate is win a race in one of the following states: Louisiana(voted for Mitt by about 20 points), North Carolina(2 point Mitt win here), Iowa/Michigan (both voted for Obama but it was a single-digit margin, and the midterm election turnout is more GOP-friendly almost invariably).

It appears that the GOP is doing quite well. Assuming "toss-ups" mean that either party has a 50-50 chance of winning, then we would be expected to have 49 seats even when the GOP has supposedly hit "rock bottom" according to liberals.

I just don't get this hysteria about the death of the GOP. The maps just don't seem to support it.

 

[TemplarKormac]

I keep hearing about the "death" of the GOP and how they're going to lose big in 2014.
But let's look at the Senate map.
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate


Right now, we're at a 45/55 split between R/D in the Senate.
Even now, despite the fact that GOP's approval ratings are down right now (thanks to the liberal media's narrative of the shutdown being the Republican Party's fault), the GOP is projected to pick up at least 3 Senate seats in the states of West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. These states all voted solidly for Romney, especially West Virginia, a state in which every single county went for Mitt (even Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and Mike Dukakis could win a few counties in WV(Dukakis even carried the state); but not Obama!)
In addition, the 2 "toss-up" races in Alaska and Arkansas are both in deep-red states.

If the GOP approval ratings pick up, as they likely will given the Obamacare roll-out headlines, then these "toss-up" states would shift to the GOP column.

This would get us to a 50/50 split. Then, all we would have to do to take back the Senate is win a race in one of the following states: Louisiana(voted for Mitt by about 20 points), North Carolina(2 point Mitt win here), Iowa/Michigan (both voted for Obama but it was a single-digit margin, and the midterm election turnout is more GOP-friendly almost invariably).

It appears that the GOP is doing quite well. Assuming "toss-ups" mean that either party has a 50-50 chance of winning, then we would be expected to have 49 seats even when the GOP has supposedly hit "rock bottom" according to liberals.

I just don't get this hysteria about the death of the GOP. The maps just don't seem to support it.

Well as we all found out, money is the big driver. Both men (Romney and Obama) ran $1b campaigns. The maps favored Romney but Obama still won.

 

[Zander]

As plausible as Larry Sabato sounds, the GOP has a remarkable ability to shoot itself in the foot. One day they're cruising to victory the next they're talking about "legitimate rape"......

 

[Nyvin]

Arkansas and West Virginia both have habits of electing democrats. In Arkansas there's a democratic incumbent.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Being pro infrastructure, science, tech, manufacturing, and education.

This is what the vast majority of this country wants Most people want our country to be number one within the modern world.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Arkansas and West Virginia both have habits of electing democrats. In Arkansas there's a democratic incumbent.

Fair point, but Shelly Capito is a top-flight candidate in WV with no good Democrat opponent. In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln got decimated by Congressman John Boozman in 2010, so the state is clearly losing its D tilt.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The GOP mainstream can do better by (1) renouncing Cruz, Lee, and the TPM; (2) and, more importantly, work to negotiate and pass a GOP immigration bill that the Senate will accept.

If that happens, the GOP can keep the House and possible take 51 seats in the Senate.

If not, the Dems take everything.

 

[rightwinger]

The Democrats have to defend more seats in this election so Republicans have an outside chance of picking up six seats.

That is if they can avoid the temptation of being Republicans, They were a shoo-in to take the Senate in the last two elections and managed to screw it up big time

The Republican brand is in the dumps and polls are crap. This will affect their ability to fund raise.

If the TeaTards continue to go on the warpath.....Republicans will lose more seats

 

[Derideo_Te]

Right now the GOP needs to stop snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They will need to carefully vet that senate candidates to have a chance. If they go with the same template as 2012 they could end up with a similar outcome.

 

[rightwinger]

I really think that the slim chances that Republicans had to take the Senate have already been pissed away

Approval rating in the 20s can do that