$1300 Gold, and $21.50 Silver....

[Mini 14]

I hate Obama, but my metals LOVE his stupid ass!!!

 

[william the wie]

win some lose some

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

I hate Obama, but my metals LOVE his stupid ass!!!

indeed. Good thing I got in back in 08 when bush started tarp. I just wish I put more than 20% of my savings into it.

 

[william the wie]

I feel your pain my precious metals are in my Roth and I am paying tithe out of my taxable account

 

[The Rabbi]

I think this is the point we start shorting gold.

 

[Toro]

I think this is the point we start shorting gold.

Why?

 

[The Rabbi]

I think this is the point we start shorting gold.

Why?

Because the market is basically efficient. If the price of gold is high because "everyone" knows that inflation is coming, then all the news is out. It can only get better and people will get hammered.
What happens when the Fed actually raises rates after the election because ultra low rates really don't stimulate anything? No one is looking for that, which is why it might easily happen.

 

[william the wie]

Feel free to short. I will stick to the maxim that the bottom is reached when the DJIA = 1 oz. AU.

 

[Toro]

I think this is the point we start shorting gold.

Why?

Because the market is basically efficient. If the price of gold is high because "everyone" knows that inflation is coming, then all the news is out. It can only get better and people will get hammered.
What happens when the Fed actually raises rates after the election because ultra low rates really don't stimulate anything? No one is looking for that, which is why it might easily happen.

What makes you think gold at $1300 isn't evidence of an efficient market?

Eventually, gold will get hammered but I doubt it will happen soon. There will be corrections - there have been a few 20%+ declines since this gold market began. But thus far, all the foundations are still for a bull market. I would start looking for an end to the gold bull market if and when a flood of new supply comes into the market and/or monetary conditions get very tight. The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5.25% from 2003 to 2007 and gold more than doubled.

I wouldn't short gold here, except for a near-term overbought trade with tight stops.

We still haven't reached the euphoric stage of this yet.

 

[Toro]

Feel free to short. I will stick to the maxim that the bottom is reached when the DJIA = 1 oz. AU.

I don't know if it is going to get to 1. It might, I just don't know. I don't think like that. I think, "What if it tops out at 3?" That would still put gold at $3500, a damn good return from here. I remember "Dow 36,000."

 

[The Rabbi]

Why?

Because the market is basically efficient. If the price of gold is high because "everyone" knows that inflation is coming, then all the news is out. It can only get better and people will get hammered.
What happens when the Fed actually raises rates after the election because ultra low rates really don't stimulate anything? No one is looking for that, which is why it might easily happen.

What makes you think gold at $1300 isn't evidence of an efficient market?

Eventually, gold will get hammered but I doubt it will happen soon. There will be corrections - there have been a few 20%+ declines since this gold market began. But thus far, all the foundations are still for a bull market. I would start looking for an end to the gold bull market if and when a flood of new supply comes into the market and/or monetary conditions get very tight. The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5.25% from 2003 to 2007 and gold more than doubled.

I wouldn't short gold here, except for a near-term overbought trade with tight stops.

We still haven't reached the euphoric stage of this yet.

Youi're joking. When radio ads tout gold the same way they did real estate, and before that stocks then we've hit a top. When I see people standing on streetcorners advertising to buy gold, we're at a top. You don't think all the scrap is going to gun supply? When the stock market starts making new highs all that money is going to pile out of gold and into stocks. I don't know whether this is really the top, or whether it's at 1300 or 1400 or 1500 but we're very close. Gold is thinly traded so it is subject to very big moves.

 

[loosecannon]

A lot of people are beginning to say that the gold bubble may be about to pop. Gold is far above it's historic norms and driven there mostly by a fringe element with super low confidence in currencies.

File:Gold price in USD.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But I don't think gold will fall below $800/oz in my lifetime.

 

[loosecannon]

Because the market is basically efficient. If the price of gold is high because "everyone" knows that inflation is coming, then all the news is out. It can only get better and people will get hammered.
What happens when the Fed actually raises rates after the election because ultra low rates really don't stimulate anything? No one is looking for that, which is why it might easily happen.

What makes you think gold at $1300 isn't evidence of an efficient market?

Eventually, gold will get hammered but I doubt it will happen soon. There will be corrections - there have been a few 20%+ declines since this gold market began. But thus far, all the foundations are still for a bull market. I would start looking for an end to the gold bull market if and when a flood of new supply comes into the market and/or monetary conditions get very tight. The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5.25% from 2003 to 2007 and gold more than doubled.

I wouldn't short gold here, except for a near-term overbought trade with tight stops.

We still haven't reached the euphoric stage of this yet.

Youi're joking. When radio ads tout gold the same way they did real estate, and before that stocks then we've hit a top. When I see people standing on streetcorners advertising to buy gold, we're at a top. You don't think all the scrap is going to gun supply? When the stock market starts making new highs all that money is going to pile out of gold and into stocks. I don't know whether this is really the top, or whether it's at 1300 or 1400 or 1500 but we're very close. Gold is thinly traded so it is subject to very big moves.

The funniest part of the gold equation is that most of the gold people buy isn't gold at all. It is leased gold. You "buy" it, pay for it, but the guy you buy it from doesn't have it, or own it, he just has a lease on it. And those leases are sold in a manner similar to fractional reserve banking in which many people are leasing the same physical gold at the same time.

When the premium between real delivered gold and leased gold collapses you will know that the bubble is about to pop. Last I heard that premium was still rising.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Feel free to short. I will stick to the maxim that the bottom is reached when the DJIA = 1 oz. AU.

I don't know if it is going to get to 1. It might, I just don't know. I don't think like that. I think, "What if it tops out at 3?" That would still put gold at $3500, a damn good return from here. I remember "Dow 36,000."

If that happens I will be VERY happy as I will more than triple the investment I made 2 years ago.

 

[The Rabbi]

Can someone give a cogent explanation of why gold is going to go higher? There is absolutely no reason for it.

 

[Mini 14]

Can someone give a cogent explanation of why gold is going to go higher? There is absolutely no reason for it.

Because the dollar will continue to weaken, and possibly collapse.

 

[Oddball]

Can someone give a cogent explanation of why gold is going to go higher? There is absolutely no reason for it.

Lots of brokerages hedging for the next panic sale of stocks, which I'm guessing will come as soon as the Fed quits pumping container ship loads of cash into the stock markets.

At that point, gold will again drop like a rock, as they sell at any available price to keep their businesses solvent....Only to have the price begin its upward march again, as all those inflated dollars hit the streets.

See the what the prices did in '08?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

 

[Paulie]

Can someone give a cogent explanation of why gold is going to go higher? There is absolutely no reason for it.

I'm going to go waaaaaaaay out on a limb and say it might just have something to do with the deliberate debasement of currencies going on around the world.

 

[The Rabbi]

Can someone give a cogent explanation of why gold is going to go higher? There is absolutely no reason for it.

Because the dollar will continue to weaken, and possibly collapse.

The dollar has been strengthening against the yen and Euro.
So, no.

 

[william the wie]

Actually the gigantic upsurge in European purchases is driving the price. If the dollar tanks the Far East and EU will see their exports and economies collapse. Because of arbitrage gold could easily hit $10K/oz.