Your Prediction as of 10/18

[mamooth]

Given how strong Obama is running on the home stretch, 300+ looks very likely for him.

We need a new poll. How many of the Republican blowhards here will slink away, but then immediately come back under a new identity?

 

[Zoom-boing]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

 

[Zander]

I predict that we will know the winner within moments of the west coast polls closing....

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I predict that we will know the winner within moments of the west coast polls closing....

The only way I see that happening is if PA goes Red or VA goes blue. I suspect the West coast results to be frustratingly predictable.

 

[Cecilie1200]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

. . . You DO realize that close elections don't "end in the courts", they end in the House of Representatives, right? The only reason 2000 ended in the courts is because Al Gore tried to steal the election with endless recounts, and a rogue court decided to overstep its bounds and try to rewrite Florida election law. That's not actually how the election system works.

 

[Zoom-boing]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

Yup.

With the presidential election expected to hinge on Ohio, the state’s former secretary of state, GOP stalwart Kenneth Blackwell, is warning that a little-known change in the Buckeye State’s absentee-ballot process could lead to a “nightmare scenario.”

And that scenario could force the entire country to wait 10 days after the election to find out who will be the next president of the United States. It’s a complicated situation, to say the least, but one that could have a far-reaching impact on the Nov. 6 election process.

For the first time in the key swing state’s history, Blackwell says, virtually all Ohio voters this year were mailed an application for an absentee ballot. In previous elections, most Ohio voters had to request an application for an absentee ballot to receive one.

The concern is that thousands of Ohio voters may complete the absentee-ballot application and receive an absentee ballot, but not bother to complete and mail in the ballot.

Anyone who is sent an absentee ballot — including those who do not complete it and mail it in — and later shows up at the polls on Election Day to cast their ballot in person will be instructed to instead complete a provisional ballot.

And under Ohio election law, provisional ballots cannot be opened until 10 days after an election.

“I would just say that this is a potential nightmare-in-waiting,” says Blackwell.

Ohio Voting Count 'Nightmare' Looms

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

. . . You DO realize that close elections don't "end in the courts", they end in the House of Representatives, right? The only reason 2000 ended in the courts is because Al Gore tried to steal the election with endless recounts, and a rogue court decided to overstep its bounds and try to rewrite Florida election law. That's not actually how the election system works.

It isn't, and I've been fairly vocal on these boards about how pissed off I was about the 2000 election ending in the courts. The correct decision was to not sit the electors from Florida or to not certify the results and appeal to the House.

2000 teaches me though that no one is going to let this go to the House. And there already is legal issues in Florida (Yippee.) and brewing problems in Ohio related to the fact that the results may not be known there until the 17th.

So again, how things are SUPPOSED to work is that if the election is in dispute, we go to the House and Senate. But the reality? We'll be going to court.

 

[decker]

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

. . . You DO realize that close elections don't "end in the courts", they end in the House of Representatives, right? The only reason 2000 ended in the courts is because Al Gore tried to steal the election with endless recounts, and a rogue court decided to overstep its bounds and try to rewrite Florida election law. That's not actually how the election system works.

It isn't, and I've been fairly vocal on these boards about how pissed off I was about the 2000 election ending in the courts. The correct decision was to not sit the electors from Florida or to not certify the results and appeal to the House.

2000 teaches me though that no one is going to let this go to the House. And there already is legal issues in Florida (Yippee.) and brewing problems in Ohio related to the fact that the results may not be known there until the 17th.

So again, how things are SUPPOSED to work is that if the election is in dispute, we go to the House and Senate. But the reality? We'll be going to court.

at moment this is what my gut telling me

vi,fi,co and nc to go to romney
mi,pa and nv to obama

i generally not sure about ohio,nh,iowa and wi. all of them could go way or another. depends on turnout

i might be wrong but that where i see it at the moment. i am probally wrong though

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Ok, final chance to weigh in.

I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.

I will go on record saying this: If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged. Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.

 

[decker]

I honestly have no idea who is going to win. As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way. I don't see a landslide one way or the other. Squeaker.

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

Yup.

With the presidential election expected to hinge on Ohio, the state’s former secretary of state, GOP stalwart Kenneth Blackwell, is warning that a little-known change in the Buckeye State’s absentee-ballot process could lead to a “nightmare scenario.”

And that scenario could force the entire country to wait 10 days after the election to find out who will be the next president of the United States. It’s a complicated situation, to say the least, but one that could have a far-reaching impact on the Nov. 6 election process.

For the first time in the key swing state’s history, Blackwell says, virtually all Ohio voters this year were mailed an application for an absentee ballot. In previous elections, most Ohio voters had to request an application for an absentee ballot to receive one.

The concern is that thousands of Ohio voters may complete the absentee-ballot application and receive an absentee ballot, but not bother to complete and mail in the ballot.

Anyone who is sent an absentee ballot — including those who do not complete it and mail it in — and later shows up at the polls on Election Day to cast their ballot in person will be instructed to instead complete a provisional ballot.

And under Ohio election law, provisional ballots cannot be opened until 10 days after an election.

“I would just say that this is a potential nightmare-in-waiting,” says Blackwell.

Ohio Voting Count 'Nightmare' Looms

i hate this to be repeat of 2000 with never ending election going on and on. but if it close then could happen

 

[decker]

Ok, final chance to weigh in.

I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.

I will go on record saying this: If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged. Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.

very good point. if either man wins landslide it really goes against most polls. but it might happen if either side breaks the other wall.

say if romney wins pa or mi or obama wins fi. but unless that happens we looking at a close election to the night

watch demographics on who turn out on the day. that be vital in swing states for both sides

 

[Dr.Traveler]

at moment this is what my gut telling me

vi,fi,co and nc to go to romney
mi,pa and nv to obama

i generally not sure about ohio,nh,iowa and wi. all of them could go way or another. depends on turnout

i might be wrong but that where i see it at the moment. i am probally wrong though

The latest polls show Obama has a shot in VA, IA and CO, but I seriously doubt that. I expect all 3 will go to Romney as will Florida and North Carolina.

PA and MI are not really swing states. They're locked in for Obama.

Obama is currently ahead and has stayed ahead all year in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Ohio, which is electorally all he really needs. New Hampshire will probably go Obama, but isn't really necessary in the contest.

The absolute cap for Obama is 347 Electoral Votes. That would involve him taking all of the states in question and stealing all states that are only narrowly GOP. I see that as impossible. The realistic cap is 318, but even at that point, if Obama gets 318 Electoral Votes given the data we've seen up till now, I think the GOP should launch voter fraud investigations. The only way he legitimately hits that number is if Sanday had a huge impact on the electorate that came too late for the polls to measure.

The absolute cap for Romney is 321. That represents him winning all swing states and stealing all of the barely blue states. The more realistic cap for Romney is 310. That represents him taking all currently tied states plus New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. The only legitimate way that Romney cracks that ceiling is if all the polls really REALLY were biased, and that includes even Rasmussen as he's converging to the rest today as expected. If Romney cracks that barrier the DNC should launch investigations into voter suppression charges across the nation.

I'm standing pat. No landslide tomorrow.

 

[decker]

at moment this is what my gut telling me

vi,fi,co and nc to go to romney
mi,pa and nv to obama

i generally not sure about ohio,nh,iowa and wi. all of them could go way or another. depends on turnout

i might be wrong but that where i see it at the moment. i am probally wrong though

The latest polls show Obama has a shot in VA, IA and CO, but I seriously doubt that. I expect all 3 will go to Romney as will Florida and North Carolina.

PA and MI are not really swing states. They're locked in for Obama.

Obama is currently ahead and has stayed ahead all year in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Ohio, which is electorally all he really needs. New Hampshire will probably go Obama, but isn't really necessary in the contest.

The absolute cap for Obama is 347 Electoral Votes. That would involve him taking all of the states in question and stealing all states that are only narrowly GOP. I see that as impossible. The realistic cap is 318, but even at that point, if Obama gets 318 Electoral Votes given the data we've seen up till now, I think the GOP should launch voter fraud investigations. The only way he legitimately hits that number is if Sanday had a huge impact on the electorate that came too late for the polls to measure.

The absolute cap for Romney is 321. That represents him winning all swing states and stealing all of the barely blue states. The more realistic cap for Romney is 310. That represents him taking all currently tied states plus New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. The only legitimate way that Romney cracks that ceiling is if all the polls really REALLY were biased, and that includes even Rasmussen as he's converging to the rest today as expected. If Romney cracks that barrier the DNC should launch investigations into voter suppression charges across the nation.

I'm standing pat. No landslide tomorrow.

your right. i think many will look bemnused if obama cracks say fi or co or if romney cracks pa or mi

deep down i have gut feeing it be midwest that decides it. ohio and wi for me are two key states. whoever wins both of those states will be in very strong postion to win

in your poll you have romney at least 263. then he needs either wi or ohio. so he be in good place then.

i think on my map i have romney on 257 and obama on 243 with nh,iowa,wi,ohio all to play for. so romney will then need either just ohio or wi and nh. obama would need ohio and wi or ohio ,iw and nh.

i still sense ohio and wi could be key to whole election. we see. i could be wrong

 

[paulitician]

I know i'm in the minority, but i predict Romney won't need Ohio. I think he wins going away. His large margin of victory is going to be the shocker and story of this Election.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

i still sense ohio and wi could be key to whole election. we see. i could be wrong

They will be. I don't see Obama winning without both, but given the data, he's likely to take both.

I will say this, I consider Wisconsin to be less solidly Obama and Ohio at this point. I could see Obama taking Ohio and losing Wisconsin, and the election, at the very end despite what the polls say. Romney has a lot of strengths that come into play in Wisconsin and the GOP there is fired up.

I do not think it is impossible for Romney to win, I just think an Obama victory is more likely. Should Romney win I expect he'll be able to thank Wisconsin.

I know i'm in the minority, but i predict Romney won't need Ohio. I think he wins going away. His large margin of victory is going to be the shocker and story of this Election.

This I don't believe. There's absolutely no data, none, indicating either man is heading for a landslide victory. I said it a few posts up and I will say it now again. If Romney or Obama cracks 310+ you should call bullshit and start looking into if this election was tainted by either voter fraud or voter suppression. Go to Rasmussen, give Romney all the toss ups, and he only gets 301 Electoral Votes. Obama is only in a slightly better shape all told.

No landslide.

 

[Cecilie1200]

Ditto. I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close. If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.

. . . You DO realize that close elections don't "end in the courts", they end in the House of Representatives, right? The only reason 2000 ended in the courts is because Al Gore tried to steal the election with endless recounts, and a rogue court decided to overstep its bounds and try to rewrite Florida election law. That's not actually how the election system works.

It isn't, and I've been fairly vocal on these boards about how pissed off I was about the 2000 election ending in the courts. The correct decision was to not sit the electors from Florida or to not certify the results and appeal to the House.

2000 teaches me though that no one is going to let this go to the House. And there already is legal issues in Florida (Yippee.) and brewing problems in Ohio related to the fact that the results may not be known there until the 17th.

So again, how things are SUPPOSED to work is that if the election is in dispute, we go to the House and Senate. But the reality? We'll be going to court.

Actually, the correct decision in 2000 was what would have happened had the court case gone on any longer: the certified Florida election results would have stood irregardless of any legal maneuvering. The courts do not and did not have any say in the election itself.

I can't imagine why anyone would think it would be correct to not certify the results, given that they were in on time, and the law required it.

I also can't imagine why you would say "no one is going to LET it go to the House". How in the hell do you imagine they could STOP it?

You can go to court all you like, but it's a fallacy that it affected the election process itself in 2000, or that it will in the future.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I can't imagine why anyone would think it would be correct to not certify the results, given that they were in on time, and the law required it.

Can you provide the law requiring the Legislative to certify an election regardless of the issues involved?

Once it became clear there was an issue in Florida, the results should not have been certified. As far as coming in on time, Gore legally had grounds to ask for the recount, Bush hired young lawyers and lobbyists to try to block it. Look up the Brooks Brothers Riot sometime. Then things ended up in court, which is where they shouldn't have ended. The recount, a full one, should have gone forward and if it wasn't finished in time, then you pass on to the House.

I also can't imagine why you would say "no one is going to LET it go to the House". How in the hell do you imagine they could STOP it?

They, as in both parties, will do anything possible to stop a result from going to the House, especially now. Going to the House pretty much guarantees the President and VP will be separate parties as the GOP will carry Romney to the office, but the Senate will support Biden. What's likely to happen on election day is that an early result will come in from Ohio, everyone will sue based on numerous and sundry grounds, and the legal battle will be on for how to count the absentee and provisional ballots on the 17th of November. And if Ohio is close, you'll see a recount and an attempt to block it.

 

[Rinata]

I've been following the Huffpost Politics Election Dashboard. I like it because it is a snapshot of where the presidential race stands. It's based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls filtered through a poll-tracking mode and updated throughout the day.

So I'm going to predict that the outcome will be close to what they claim tomorrow. Right now they are projecting 277 for President Obama and 191 for Mitt Romney. Hope they are right. I feel strongly that they are. We'll see!!!

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

 

[Oddball]

Ok, final chance to weigh in.

I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.

I will go on record saying this: If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged. Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.

Don't know what to say.

It's seems plain to me that the polls don't reflect reality, one way or another.

Last weekend, you had Obammy campaign events in Minnesota and Wisconsin, of all places....Makes no sense if you believe the polls.