You have to have Ohio Mitt...and it won't happen.

[AceRothstein]

Walker, well, walked to a victory partially because the Democrats didn't have a decent candidate. At this point, everyone, and I mean everyone, has Obama up in Wisconsin. Rasmussen has it 51% Obama, 49% Romney for pete's sake.

Again, a little over a week ago, Obama was up by 8. The pendulum is swinging to Romney - and fast.

I see Wisconsin as an indicator of just how much trouble Romney is in when it comes to the Electoral College. With Walker's recall and Ryan on the ticket, Romney should be up by 5 points or more in Wisconsin, and yet he can't seem to take the lead there.

6 points in a week is pretty significant. I don't see things improving for Obama, just the opposite with this Benghazi mess. Obama lied directly to America and had his top administration people lie. Just like Nixon, Obama came off as a crook.

Should Romney flip Wisconsin though, I'd expect he'll win. But it certainly looks like he will not.

Romney will take Wisconsin, there is zero doubt. Ohio is up for grabs - but then, so is Pennsylvania now - in an astounding turn of events.

Most, if not all, of today's polls shows that Romney's bounce is on it's way down and that it wasn't actually a bump.

 

[Babbleon]

The smart members of the GOP know we are in the 21st century, that business is not self regulating in a competitive world economy, and that we all have to get along to not destroy the planet. The far right has no where else to go right at the moment, and the smart GOP are conning those folks as hard as we can. Once we have the presidency and at least the House, the GOP will turn its back for the last time on the far right and pull over as many middle of the road Dems that we can.

I like the sound of that, personally, but I think someone put too much whiskey in your coffee.

 

[Dr.House]

PA is in play... recent polls have Romney making huge gains and now within the MOE...

 

[Uncensored2008]

Most, if not all, of today's polls shows that Romney's bounce is on it's way down and that it wasn't actually a bump.

You are stating what you wish, not what is.

Nothing indicates a resurgence for Obama, and the astounding situation in Pennsylvania shows just the opposite.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Again, a little over a week ago, Obama was up by 8. The pendulum is swinging to Romney - and fast.

Just for perspective, we've seen this before. Romney was up, and had momentum, multiple times in the nomination process and just couldn't seal the deal. Take a look at what Romney was dealing with today. He ended up having to backpedal away from his Pro-Life stance to try not to alienate moderates, then found he had to backpedal BACK towards Pro-Life and away from Pro-Choice to appease the base.

Once you have momentum the story going forward should be, well, you're going forward. And yet, here we go with Romney having to back up again to fix an error on the campaign trail. Romney's problem has always been his inability to follow through. Money saved him in the Primaries, it won't in the General as Obama is nearly as well funded.

Now, if Romney wins the next two debates, then yeah, Obama is in real trouble. But his "momentum" coming out of the first debate hasn't actually put him ahead in any of the swing states. It's just tightened him up with Obama. That's good, now he has to follow through.

As for your predictions: The only way Romney carries Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is if the Obama campaign completely collapses between here and Election day. Obama will carry Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I'm not willing to say for certain Obama will win Ohio at this point, but I certainly expect him to do so and win the Electoral College.

If it's any consolation, about a week ago at this point I was fairly certain Obama would carry Nevada and Virginia. It's looking like he might not now. So Romney is making progress. He just has to follow through.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I like the sound of that, personally, but I think someone put too much whiskey in your coffee.

Jakematters consumes huge volumes of paint chips, washed down with cheap vodka.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Most, if not all, of today's polls shows that Romney's bounce is on it's way down and that it wasn't actually a bump.

You are stating what you wish, not what is.

Nothing indicates a resurgence for Obama, and the astounding situation in Pennsylvania shows just the opposite.

And Momentum is meaningless unless it carries you into the lead. Go check Rasmussen. Obama is still winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio there. And he's up in Iowa, of all places. Iowa! That's enough for 271 electoral votes and the game.

Until Rasmussen shows Romney winning, I just can't take a Romney resurgence seriously.

 

[RoadVirus]

At this point, everyone, and I mean everyone, has Obama up in Wisconsin. Rasmussen has it 51% Obama, 49% Romney for pete's sake.

I see Wisconsin as an indicator of just how much trouble Romney is in when it comes to the Electoral College. With Walker's recall and Ryan on the ticket, Romney should be up by 5 points or more in Wisconsin, and yet he can't seem to take the lead there.

Should Romney flip Wisconsin though, I'd expect he'll win. But it certainly looks like he will not.

Romney (or Ryan, if he slaughters Biden tonight) may very well flip Wisconsin. Before the debates, Obama was in double digit territory there. Now, as you've said, Rasmussen has him only 2 points ahead of Romney.

Yep...Wisconsin's going to go Red soon.

 

[AceRothstein]

Most, if not all, of today's polls shows that Romney's bounce is on it's way down and that it wasn't actually a bump.

You are stating what you wish, not what is.

Nothing indicates a resurgence for Obama, and the astounding situation in Pennsylvania shows just the opposite.

Maybe you should take another look.

In PA, two polls came out right after the debate Obama +2, +3. In the last two days we have two polls with Obama +5, +8.

In VA, two polls came out after the debate Romney +1, +3. In the last three days we have two polls with Obama +1, +3 & one poll Romney +1.

In OH, one poll came out after the debate Romney +1. In the last three days we have four polls Obama +1, +1, +4, +6 & two polls Romney +1, +1.

I don't think that is what I wish, it is what it is. I can go ahead and show more states if you'd like.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

At this point, everyone, and I mean everyone, has Obama up in Wisconsin. Rasmussen has it 51% Obama, 49% Romney for pete's sake.

I see Wisconsin as an indicator of just how much trouble Romney is in when it comes to the Electoral College. With Walker's recall and Ryan on the ticket, Romney should be up by 5 points or more in Wisconsin, and yet he can't seem to take the lead there.

Should Romney flip Wisconsin though, I'd expect he'll win. But it certainly looks like he will not.

Romney (or Ryan, if he slaughters Biden tonight) may very well flip Wisconsin. Before the debates, Obama was in double digit territory there. Now, as you've said, Rasmussen has him only 2 points ahead of Romney.

Yep...Wisconsin's going to go Red soon.

I won't say it's completely impossible. I doubt Ryan's performance tonight one way or another changes Wisconsin though. He's known there already.

I do see Wisconsin as a barometer for the overall health of the Romney campaign. Romney has every advantage he could want in Wisconsin and still isn't in the lead. There's a couple of things I'd want to see before I'd start thinking Romney could win this thing:

1. Romney up in Wisconsin past the MoE.
2. Romney winning the Electoral College on Rasmussen
3. Romney winning Nevada.

Until I see those things, it's just really hard to take all this talk of Momentum and bounces seriously.

 

[Uncensored2008]

And Momentum is meaningless unless it carries you into the lead.

That's true. And if next week swings like this week, Romney will have enough EC votes to take the election.

Go check Rasmussen. Obama is still winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio there. And he's up in Iowa, of all places. Iowa! That's enough for 271 electoral votes and the game.

Until Rasmussen shows Romney winning, I just can't take a Romney resurgence seriously.

Yep, he has a razor thin lead, which was a solid and substantial lead a week ago.

And there is Benghazi, which isn't going away. Obama fucked the dog (which he named after himself) by lying to America, particularly by scolding Romney WHILE lying to America.

 

[AceRothstein]

At this point, everyone, and I mean everyone, has Obama up in Wisconsin. Rasmussen has it 51% Obama, 49% Romney for pete's sake.

I see Wisconsin as an indicator of just how much trouble Romney is in when it comes to the Electoral College. With Walker's recall and Ryan on the ticket, Romney should be up by 5 points or more in Wisconsin, and yet he can't seem to take the lead there.

Should Romney flip Wisconsin though, I'd expect he'll win. But it certainly looks like he will not.

Romney (or Ryan, if he slaughters Biden tonight) may very well flip Wisconsin. Before the debates, Obama was in double digit territory there. Now, as you've said, Rasmussen has him only 2 points ahead of Romney.

Yep...Wisconsin's going to go Red soon.

I won't say it's completely impossible. I doubt Ryan's performance tonight one way or another changes Wisconsin though. He's known there already.

I do see Wisconsin as a barometer for the overall health of the Romney campaign. Romney has every advantage he could want in Wisconsin and still isn't in the lead. There's a couple of things I'd want to see before I'd start thinking Romney could win this thing:

1. Romney up in Wisconsin past the MoE.
2. Romney winning the Electoral College on Rasmussen
3. Romney winning Nevada.

Until I see those things, it's just really hard to take all this talk of Momentum and bounces seriously.

I think you can call it what it is, a bounce and not a bump. A bump was what we saw for Obama after the conventions, the better polling for him had staying power. It took a failure of a debate from Obama to alter the race and we are seeing that in Romney's bounce. The numbers in most states are now coming back down for Romney and nationally as well, hence a bounce and not a bump.

 

[Liability]

Obama gets his butt handed to him in the next debate, and I think it's entirely possible the Ohio could be in play again.

Ohio is ALREADY very much in play.

Even compensating for the flawed polling methodology that allows for so much Dim Over-Sampling, and despite the tendency of liberal Democratics to cheat at voting, unskewed polls show a Romney lead.

Cue the whining ninny lib chorus.

Go.

 

[Liability]

Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

A bit out of date, but still a better indicator than the Dim Over-Sampling polls.

 

[DiamondDave]

Obama gets his butt handed to him in the next debate, and I think it's entirely possible the Ohio could be in play again.

Precisely.. The swing is already there according to RCP... further advances in Romney whooping Obamalama's butt on the issues and it will go even more

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama

 

[Liability]

Ohio would be nice. It may not be necessary.

In any event. It will happen.

The NBC/Marist poll I saw most recently for Ohio is composed of:

LIKELY VOTERS
October 11, 2012
October 3, 2012
September 2012
Democrat
40
36
38
Republican
29
31
28
Independent
29
32
32
Other
1
1
1
Total
100
100
100

-- http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist OH 10-12.pdf

and even with that utterly silly oversampling of Dims, the predicted result was still just a 6% margin of victory for The ONE.

Ohio is not in play -- for the President.

He is a one termer.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Today's rcp is 4.5 trending up in PA for Obama.

PA is in play... recent polls have Romney making huge gains and now within the MOE...

 

[JakeStarkey]

Nah, the far right and libertarians are now like the girls out on the fringes at college whom the guys would keep for last minute need.

The ladies would always complain and walk, then they would come back.

The far rights are growing less important to the party, which means they are abused more.

The smart members of the GOP know we are in the 21st century, that business is not self regulating in a competitive world economy, and that we all have to get along to not destroy the planet. The far right has no where else to go right at the moment, and the smart GOP are conning those folks as hard as we can. Once we have the presidency and at least the House, the GOP will turn its back for the last time on the far right and pull over as many middle of the road Dems that we can.

I like the sound of that, personally, but I think someone put too much whiskey in your coffee.

 

[Dr.House]

Today's rcp is 4.5 trending up in PA for Obama.

PA is in play... recent polls have Romney making huge gains and now within the MOE...

You really don't know how to read a graph, Fakey...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama

Trending up for Romney, dipshit...

PA is in play, child...

 

[DiamondDave]

Hahahaha.. Jokey gets busted for his idiocy.. AGAIN