Trump would need a significant number of independents plus all of the GOP base which would rather vomit than vote for him in some cases. The hard right isn't going to show up for him. Christians are not going to show up for him. And it's entirely likely that the establishment Republicans are going to sit this one out.
Advantage Hillary.
It depends.
Conservatives said that conservatives would stay home if they nominated Romney, and more conservatives voted for Romney than any other Presidential candidate in history. So I'm not sure if conservatives would stay home for Trump. In fact, given the passion conservatives here show for him, they may be more likely to go to the polls with Trump on the ballot.
As you said, it depends. I'm not sure more conservatives showed up for Romney. More people did.
According to Wiki, BHO got 3 million fewer votes in 12 than he got in 08. Undoubtedly some of those went to Gov. Romney.
As for Trump, what I was speaking of was the fiscal conservatives--the true TEA partiers--not the GOP's Monster Truck Rally constituency.
The biggest threat Trump poses to Clinton is him peeling off blue collar Democrats, who - along with minorities - are Clinton's base. He may also bring out new voters, voters who generally don't vote. The other group to watch are young people. Young people would probably still vote for the Democrats, but Clinton doesn't seem to inspire young people in the way Obama did. Clinton isn't cool. Trump is "cooler" than Hillary. Clinton probably doesn't pull the same amount of minorities as Obama did. Clinton also has to be wary of the Left pulling her to far away from the center. The Democrat Party is shifting left, which threatens their viability. The final thing that could benefit Trump would be if terrorist activity increases.
Some of that is spot on. I think something you're overlooking is that "coolness" isn't what it once was. When I was a kid about 300 years ago, the whole "If your neighbor is coming into your yard, you build a fence" notion was not just good sense, it was done regularly. Today's youth are more sophisticated than this. They want to know how you'll pay for it, why the wall is only on one border, and if the spotted scarecrow will be effected.
You're right about the Dems....they may need Bill to explain to them once more that the Pelosi liberalism is not what the country likes (or needs frankly). Just wait until Bill gets out there though.
OTOH, moderates decide elections. What appeals to the Republican base probably turns moderates off. Trump does relatively poorly amongst educated, higher-income Republicans, let alone moderates of the same demographics. Trump needs to win A LOT of white votes. Assuming minorities vote the same as they have the past few elections, Trump would have to win the same percentage of whites as Reagan did in 1984, which seems unlikely. Also unlikely is that he would do appreciably better with minorities than either McCain or Romney. The Democrats were also way, way ahead of Republicans in terms of technology in 2012. Have the Republicans closed that gap? Would it under Trump, a 69 year-old man whose primary advantage is amongst older, rural and less-educated voters? Another question is funding. Trump isn't spending any of his own money. Where will it come from? He probably would do better amongst small donors, but my guess is that big donors will sit this out. Of course, Trump doesn't come across as Presidential, and that matters also.
Spot on.
Don't discount Rubio. I think he will be the nominee, and I think Hillary would beat him, but I think it would be a lot closer than many Democrats think. People have dismissed him throughout his career, and all he has done is win. He's a better campaigner than Clinton, he'll do well amongst Hispanics, he appeals to moderates, he's young and attractive, and Americans look forward, not back. Clinton represents the past, Rubio the future.
I keep waiting for Rubio to announce he's running for President. Has he done so?
Seriously...can he not connect the dots for GOP voters that Trump's ideas are not only illogical, impractical, and illegal (all of which is theoretically debatable even with the most ardent Trump supporter)
but that they will cost a shit load of MONEY that we do not have???? One would think that if there is anything GOP voters would understand is the economics of the zany ideas.
He's polling on a par with Ted Cruz who is probably the most unelectable person running outside of Rand Paul. As for being a better campaigner than Clinton...remains to be seen. Clinton is running a masterful campaign this time around but there hasn't been much put in her way by her opponents. Again, he is polling with unelectable Teddy.
His record is zero.
His immigration standing has made him persona-nongrata with a lot of the hard right. Young and attractive is correct. However, in each time where he was in the public limelight, he seems to do something bizarre. The water incident...weird. The filibuster where he quoted Jay-Z....weird. His debate performances have been so-so where he at times sounds like the floor manager telling the staff that there is no overtime and to get busy (basically a prick we all remember from our first jobs). He has likable qualities and a good story.