Would Putin accept a loss in Ukraine?

[Seymour Flops]

It seems unlikely that Ukraine could defeat the invading forces. But, three weeks ago, I would not have predicted that Ukraine’s resistance would still be viable at this point.

In the event that Ukraine is able to delay Russian forces and slowly destroy them in place, what would Putin’s response be?

Putin has the power to destroy Ukraine utterly with what we in the Army in the eighties called “NBC” nuclear/biological/chemical weapons. He could also severely damage the U.S., or any other nation if they tried to interfere with the destruction. I mean severely damage the actual country, not a one day attack on a Navy base that was technically in U.S. territory as with Pearl Harbor.

I could see a scenario in which Putin starts to withdraw his forces, after somehow declaring victory, and a desire for p each. When the untrusting Ukrainians pursue the retreating Ruskies and fire on them, Putin could use that as pretext to “defend”. His troops by the use of chemical weapons, with the threat of biological weapons to stay the hand of other nations.

It’s a nightmare scenario, but it seems more likely than for Putin to accept a humiliating defeat.

 

[rightwinger]

Putin cannot accept a failed invasion

He would lose face and his power structure would collapse. He will escalate regardless of the losses they suffer

 

[Rogue AI]

Far too early for any prediction of defeat for Russia. The West is the only ones claiming this was supposed to quick. That doesn't at all match how Russia has executed this from day one.

 

[rightwinger]

Far too early for any prediction of defeat for Russia. The West is the only ones claiming this was supposed to quick. That doesn't at all match how Russia has executed this from day one.

Russia executed the invasion like they expected a quick conclusion

They didn’t have logistics to support an extended invasion, they didn’t have a “Plan B” if the invasion bogged down.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

It seems unlikely that Ukraine could defeat the invading forces. But, three weeks ago, I would not have predicted that Ukraine’s resistance would still be viable at this point.

In the event that Ukraine is able to delay Russian forces and slowly destroy them in place, what would Putin’s response be?

Putin has the power to destroy Ukraine utterly with what we in the Army in the eighties called “NBC” nuclear/biological/chemical weapons. He could also severely damage the U.S., or any other nation if they tried to interfere with the destruction. I mean severely damage the actual country, not a one day attack on a Navy base that was technically in U.S. territory as with Pearl Harbor.

I could see a scenario in which Putin starts to withdraw his forces, after somehow declaring victory, and a desire for p each. When the untrusting Ukrainians pursue the retreating Ruskies and fire on them, Putin could use that as pretext to “defend”. His troops by the use of chemical weapons, with the threat of biological weapons to stay the hand of other nations.

It’s a nightmare scenario, but it seems more likely than for Putin to accept a humiliating defeat.

He's already suffered a staggering defeat, now he's just trying to figure out how to swallow it and remain alive and in power.

I don't think he's going to succeed.

The Wolverine finally got loose and is going to gnaw on his ass all the way to Moscow.

Hopefully this will give the Russian People the opportunity they deserve to rid themselves of Putin and his kleptocratic/oligarchical regime once and for all and join the rest of the civilized nations of the world working for something better.

 

[Rogue AI]

Russia executed the invasion like they expected a quick conclusion

They didn’t have logistics to support an extended invasion, they didn’t have a “Plan B” if the invasion bogged down.

No they didn't. They only moved in half their forces the first week. That lunacy of a blitz was introduced by Brits. It was a ludicrous assertion from day one.

The same people who said this was supposed to quick also said Russia would have been out of ammo days ago. They said the 40 mile convoy was punching holes in their gas tanks, yet when it was time to move, they all moved.

This wasn't meant to be quick, that would have resulted in a long insurgency. Putin plans to end such notions before it begins. This will take months.

 

[1srelluc]

Far too early for any prediction of defeat for Russia. The West is the only ones claiming this was supposed to quick. That doesn't at all match how Russia has executed this from day one.

I have to wonder if it was by design.

The west was going on about how Kiev was going to fall in three days so every additional day this drags-out will be another day the west can pump-in arms and make bank on the sales.

Make no mistake, there are a shit-ton of people getting rich off this, from the manufactures of the weapon systems to the retired generals shilling for them on CNN.

Indeed, the western .govs are falling over each other trying to out virtue signal each other instead of bowing to the inevitable and working to secure a peace agreement.

Hell, to listen to the western press nary a Ukrainian .mil fighter has died, only women and children. Of course all the while the west is feeding the narrative of "the brave Ukrainian fighter" and perpetuating even more misery and savagery.

It's way to early to talk about Putin giving in and walking away......Come back in a couple of months with that.

 

[rightwinger]

No they didn't. They only moved in half their forces the first week. That lunacy of a blitz was introduced by Brits. It was a ludicrous assertion from day one.

The same people who said this was supposed to quick also said Russia would have been out of ammo days ago. They said the 40 mile convoy was punching holes in their gas tanks, yet when it was time to move, they all moved.

This wasn't meant to be quick, that would have resulted in a long insurgency. Putin plans to end such notions before it begins. This will take months.

The Russians ran out of fuel and left their tanks in the mud
Not much planning

 

[Big Bend Texas]

No they didn't. They only moved in half their forces the first week. That lunacy of a blitz was introduced by Brits. It was a ludicrous assertion from day one.

The same people who said this was supposed to quick also said Russia would have been out of ammo days ago. They said the 40 mile convoy was punching holes in their gas tanks, yet when it was time to move, they all moved.

This wasn't meant to be quick, that would have resulted in a long insurgency. Putin plans to end such notions before it begins. This will take months.

The generals that were killed and captures were killed and captured with their documents intact. We know what the plan was and it was to surround and force the surrender of Kiev within three days and move their other units into holding positions waiting for the formal surrender.

Instead his units were stopped cold by the melting snow and ice and stuck on hard surfaced roads only to be decimated by enemy fire.

Even with better than a 10:1 numerical superiority or more at every level, instead of a blitzkrieg, he ended up with a stalled out army that could not advance, nor retreat being picked off bit by bit by an vastly inferior force of mostly light infantry and small unit infantry kill teams moving fast and light with manpads and man portable anti armor weapons.

Zelenski must have studied the American Revolution while Putin and his generals failed to look past the Russian Revolution.

They had the money and resources for maybe a four to six week long offense and that was it so now the only question is how far they retreat and how many isolated pockets they fall back into while Putin then tries to extricate the Wolverine's Teeth from his ass.

I hope Zelensky digs in and offers him a completely withdrawal to start negotiations off seriously and then they can sit down and hash out the details of a sustainable peace that ensures Russian can never do this again.

If Putin refuses then we need to give Ukraine whatever it needs including the mig's from Poland to launch their own massive counterstrike destroying those isolated units one at a time and then moving his concentrated resources onto each one in turn until capitulation.

As long as Ukraine is willing to fight on give them the tools to do so.

 

[Rogue AI]

The Russians ran out of fuel and left their tanks in the mud
Not much planning

That's funny. Of all the leaders in NATO, Ukraine, and Russia only one of them has ever won a war. Putin, the Second Chechen conflict. He did that exactly as he's doing this. No amount of propaganda changes that. Putin saw 'shock and awe' and saw the resulting insurgency. Putin watched Yeltsin blitz Grozny and get bogged down leading to defeat. Yet we are to believe he abandoned a winning strategy for one he's seen fail? Sure.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

The Russians ran out of fuel and left their tanks in the mud
Not much planning

Fuel, spares, ammo, ordnance, aircraft, anti aircraft systems food etc.

The only thing they still have in abundance is mud up to their asses and an army that is demoralized with unit cohesion and readiness is the only thing lower than morale.

That's why Putin is quickly purging his ranks of his closest military and intel officers putting blame on them instead of the buffoon who thought he could take Ukraine by force after the spring thaw.

That buffoon of course was Putin.

 

[pknopp]

He can just pretend he won like we do.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

That's funny. Of all the leaders in NATO, Ukraine, and Russia only one of them has ever won a war. Putin, the Second Chechen conflict. He did that exactly as he's doing this. No amount of propaganda changes that. Putin saw 'shock and awe' and saw the resulting insurgency. Putin watched Yeltsin blitz Grozny and get bogged down leading to defeat. Yet we are to believe he abandoned a winning strategy for one he's seen fail? Sure.

Well he sure as hell isn't winning this one.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

He can just pretend he won like we do.

That's the only way he can pull a win out of this debacle.

 

[Rogue AI]

Well he sure as hell isn't winning this one.

Actually he is. You folks are in for some disappointment. That's the result of simply taking propaganda at face value.

 

[Turtlesoup]

It seems unlikely that Ukraine could defeat the invading forces. But, three weeks ago, I would not have predicted that Ukraine’s resistance would still be viable at this point.

In the event that Ukraine is able to delay Russian forces and slowly destroy them in place, what would Putin’s response be?

Putin has the power to destroy Ukraine utterly with what we in the Army in the eighties called “NBC” nuclear/biological/chemical weapons. He could also severely damage the U.S., or any other nation if they tried to interfere with the destruction. I mean severely damage the actual country, not a one day attack on a Navy base that was technically in U.S. territory as with Pearl Harbor.

I could see a scenario in which Putin starts to withdraw his forces, after somehow declaring victory, and a desire for p each. When the untrusting Ukrainians pursue the retreating Ruskies and fire on them, Putin could use that as pretext to “defend”. His troops by the use of chemical weapons, with the threat of biological weapons to stay the hand of other nations.

It’s a nightmare scenario, but it seems more likely than for Putin to accept a humiliating defeat.

Putin won't accept a loss--he will sabotage the nuke power plants first and destroy the area.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

Actually he is. You folks are in for some disappointment. That's the result of simply taking propaganda at face value.

He suffered more losses in 30 days in Ukraine than they suffered in a decade in Afghanistan, the Rubel is worthless and even with the most stringent controls their stock market sells off in seconds when they try to open it.

His economy is in tatters, his people are waking up to the lies he's been telling and the bodies keep coming home by the hundreds daily.

He also failed to meet his most basic and first objective which was to secure the surrender of Kiev in 72hrs and then consolidate the rest.

Even with a 10x superiority and much more modern equipment they couldn't even attain air superiority in a country the size of Texas using even his most modern aircraft and missile tech.

In all of this he's also cut his own throat and his number one means of funding his military which is through arms sales.

The world now sees just what that superdooper Russian armor and hardware is really worth when facing even a marginally competent and prepared force and it ain't looking good .

He's also of course proven he can't afford enough of his own high tech whizbang tech they've been threatening the world with to defeat an Army 1/10th the size of his own.

A tornado and three hurricanes can't spin that into a win even with every democrat in the country adding their own hot air to the mix.

No matte what the map of Ukraine looks like a year from now, his army will leave defeated, demoralized, decimated, and without honor after all the war crimes they've committed.

They are broken and defeated.

 

[Big Bend Texas]

Putin won't accept a loss--he will sabotage the nuke power plants first and destroy the area.

IF he does, the rest of his forces will be quickly destroyed in place with conventional attacks.

He's not that stupid, he needs to be able to withdraw with a sizeable enough force to be a credible threat to anyone thinking of invading.

Leave the door open, he'll find a way to slither back through it.

 

[Rogue AI]

He suffered more losses in 30 days in Ukraine than they suffered in a decade in Afghanistan, the Rubel is worthless and even with the most stringent controls their stock market sells off in seconds when they try to open it.

His economy is in tatters, his people are waking up to the lies he's been telling and the bodies keep coming home by the hundreds daily.

He also failed to meet his most basic and first objective which was to secure the surrender of Kiev in 72hrs and then consolidate the rest.

Even with a 10x superiority and much more modern equipment they couldn't even attain air superiority in a country the size of Texas using even his most modern aircraft and missile tech.

In all of this he's also cut his own throat and his number one means of funding his military which is through arms sales.

The world now sees just what that superdooper Russian armor and hardware is really worth when facing even a marginally competent and prepared force and it ain't looking good .

He's also of course proven he can't afford enough of his own high tech whizbang tech they've been threatening the world with to defeat an Army 1/10th the size of his own.

A tornado and three hurricanes can't spin that into a win even with every democrat in the country adding their own hot air to the mix.

No matte what the map of Ukraine looks like a year from now, his army will leave defeated, demoralized, decimated, and without honor after all the war crimes they've committed.

They are broken and defeated.

If you say so. But you might want to check out a white flag picture for your next avatar.

 

[rightwinger]

That's funny. Of all the leaders in NATO, Ukraine, and Russia only one of them has ever won a war. Putin, the Second Chechen conflict. He did that exactly as he's doing this. No amount of propaganda changes that. Putin saw 'shock and awe' and saw the resulting insurgency. Putin watched Yeltsin blitz Grozny and get bogged down leading to defeat. Yet we are to believe he abandoned a winning strategy for one he's seen fail? Sure.

15,000 dead Russians with no end in sight