Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature currently requires accessing the site using the built-in Safari browser.
By ALEX BYERS | 8/22/12 8:57 PM EDT
But don’t take the prediction to the bank just yet, Bickers and Berry warn. They caution that the current economic data plugged into the model was gathered in June, and also note that the winner-take-all nature of the electoral college could tip the balance drastically if either candidate sees even a slight surge.
Read more: Professors' study predicts Mitt Romney win - Alex Byers - POLITICO.com
And pundits beware: The authors suggest that dissecting the political consequences of every campaign decision could be for naught. Neither the location of the upcoming political conventions nor the home state of the vice presidential nominees are statistially significant factors in who wins in November, the analysis found.
The study will be fully published later this month in a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80024.html#ixzz2ARwgu3Zs
By ALEX BYERS | 8/22/12 8:57 PM EDT
Wednesday, October 17, 2012 21:10
Like last time, the professors make a point of stating that that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in what they term ‘an unexpected direction.’ But they still predict a solid Romney win.
My take? While I love the results shown, I think they’re a bit optimistic.For instance, I see Mitt Romney winning either Ohio or Pennsylvania, but not both, and Barack Obama winning Minnesota. And I’m not sure about Wisconsin. That still gives Mitt Romney a win with 285 electoral votes even if Obama takes Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.
And I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Obama losing a couple of those states, especially Nevada, where unemployment is out of control.
Personally, I see Romney winning the popular vote and getting something in the low 300′s electorally,(I’ll be making in depth predictions closer to the election) but this study, given its track record is definitely good news.
U Of CO Study That Correctly Predicted The Last 8 Elections Updates, Still Says Romney Will Win | Opinion - Conservative
Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.
The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.
All 13 election models can be viewed on the PS: Political Science & Politics website at http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC.
Contact:
Peter Caughey, CU-Boulder media relations, 303-492-4007
David Kelly, CU Denver media relations, 303-315-6374
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...ting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
I apologize, it took a while to get some things together
