I am not so confident of that, much the same as everyone thought touchpads would replace a mouse 6-7 years ago. They didn't. It wasn't any real improvement over the mouse.
Two issues. First, touch screens HAVE replaced the mouse to a huge extent. There are more Andriod and IOS devices than all the PC's and Macs combined, and they all used touch screens.
But, touch has issues, which are massively magnified on the desktop.
Motion sensor interface is much the same - it has to be better - not just different. Like I said - who wants to hold their arm up in the air and move it around? You know how tired your arm will get?? Imagine trying to work with a spread sheet! It would be a nightmare.
In the gaming industry, once perfected, motion sensor will certainly be a cool device though it is still years from getting better.
In many ways, it is better, significantly better. A single gesture replaces a half-dozen mouse clicks. Dragging, dropping, squeezing to contract, widening fingers to zoom, all of these are natural and intuitive to the user.
Just like the GUI, this is going to happen. Microsoft has staked their company on it, and they do a lot of research. True that they couldn't market water in the middle of the desert, but the shift is a natural and inevitable one.
