Why Trump Won’t Win

[Marchimedes]

How do you keep an idiot in suspense?

Tell you there's a fresh bag of lead paint chip snacks in it for you if you can find your own azz in a House of Mirrors.

-

I was gonna keep going until I was interrupted.

Well, Mr. Tumbleweed, your turn.

 

[Flash]

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

You stupid Moon Bat.

The only way that Trump doesn't win is the same reason he didn't win in 2020. The Democrat filth steals the election again.

Voters decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.

The Democrat Negroes in the big city shitholes in the swing districts created fradulent ballots and stole the election from the American people. A Negro will steal anything.

The fifth stage of grief is acceptance.

 

[okfine]

Another failed post from okfail

Another dumbass response from one of the biggest trolls around. What's significant about you is you are so fucking dumb.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Another dumbass response from one of the biggest trolls around. What's significant about you is you are so fucking dumb.

Well okfail maybe you should stop making dumbass responses

 

[okfine]

Well okfail maybe you should stop making dumbass responses

Dumb as a brick^^^

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Dumb as a brick^^^

Says the unhinged TDS inflicted simp. Explain why anyone should listen to you deranged people?

 

[skye]

They said that 7 years ago. 'I' said that 7 years ago.

THEY were wrong, 'I' was wrong.

Think about it.

I said before Trump would win and he did....I was right!

He become President.



Let's see this time around how right we are.

 

[okfine]

Says the unhinged TDS inflicted simp. Explain why anyone should listen to you deranged people?

You should strike up a chat with skye

She's like you.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

You should strike up a chat with skye

She's like you.

So you can't explain why you unhinged deranged people should be listen to?

 

[okfine]

So you can't explain why you unhinged deranged people should be listen to?

Ok, tell me what % your dear leader will get closer to.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Ok, tell me what % your dear leader will get closer to.

I'm trying to be nice
Why should anyone listen to proven deranged people?

 

[LeftofLeft]

Republicans here keep talking about aa Trump victory and the first primary has not been held. You guys seem to think that when the campaign starts the mindless tweets from trump cult members are going to be the only informattion. Trump is about to get crushed by organizations who will run ads blasting his presidency, and all the stuff has has talked in his rallies is going to be played as well. We will be reminded of 1-6, and then there will be videos about the trials.

The game his not started yet and Trump supporters are declaring victory. But:

Why Trump Won’t Win​

Over the past few weeks, warnings about the threat posed by Donald Trump’s potential reelection have grown louder, including in a series of articles in The Atlantic. This alarm-raising is justified and appropriate, given the looming danger of authoritarianism in American politics. But amid all of the worrying, we might be losing sight of the most important fact: Trump’s chances of winning are slim.

Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t.

Trump’s flaws look far worse today than they did eight years ago. To take one example that should concern conservative voters: his behavior toward and views of service members.

Similarly, in 2016, Trump’s campaign was briefly rocked by the Access Hollywood videotape in which he boasted about grabbing women by the genitalia. He survived, in large part because many voters chose to accept his comments as “locker room” bluster. Several women accused him of sexual misconduct, but Trump fended off their allegations too. Now he has been held civilly liable by a New York jury for sexually abusing the advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996. A federal judge has said that the jury concluded that what Trump did to Carroll was rape in the common sense of the term. Some Americans will shrug that off, but many won’t be able to.

Why Trump Won’t Win

His threats to democracy make him dangerous. They also make him a weak candidate.

www.theatlantic.com

And just watch trump lose next year. The campaign has not started yet. Ads have not been run, Trump has not debated Biden. The first Republican primary has not been held. You run general election polling from Rasmussen, lol!

Why will Biden win??

 

[okfine]

I'm trying to be nice
Why should anyone listen to proven deranged people?

Not a clue^^^

Go fetch some numbers Fido. Show everyone you can do it.

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

So you can't explain why you unhinged deranged people should be listen to?

We're certainly not understanding why you should be listened to.

 

[MarathonMike]

Republicans here keep talking about aa Trump victory and the first primary has not been held. You guys seem to think that when the campaign starts the mindless tweets from trump cult members are going to be the only informattion. Trump is about to get crushed by organizations who will run ads blasting his presidency, and all the stuff has has talked in his rallies is going to be played as well. We will be reminded of 1-6, and then there will be videos about the trials.

The game his not started yet and Trump supporters are declaring victory. But:

Why Trump Won’t Win​

Over the past few weeks, warnings about the threat posed by Donald Trump’s potential reelection have grown louder, including in a series of articles in The Atlantic. This alarm-raising is justified and appropriate, given the looming danger of authoritarianism in American politics. But amid all of the worrying, we might be losing sight of the most important fact: Trump’s chances of winning are slim.

Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t.

Trump’s flaws look far worse today than they did eight years ago. To take one example that should concern conservative voters: his behavior toward and views of service members.

Similarly, in 2016, Trump’s campaign was briefly rocked by the Access Hollywood videotape in which he boasted about grabbing women by the genitalia. He survived, in large part because many voters chose to accept his comments as “locker room” bluster. Several women accused him of sexual misconduct, but Trump fended off their allegations too. Now he has been held civilly liable by a New York jury for sexually abusing the advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996. A federal judge has said that the jury concluded that what Trump did to Carroll was rape in the common sense of the term. Some Americans will shrug that off, but many won’t be able to.

Why Trump Won’t Win

His threats to democracy make him dangerous. They also make him a weak candidate.

www.theatlantic.com

Yes Democrats will do everything they can do distract voters from the disastrous reign of the Biden administration. We'll see how that works out.

 

[Bleipriester]

Republicans here keep talking about aa Trump victory and the first primary has not been held. You guys seem to think that when the campaign starts the mindless tweets from trump cult members are going to be the only informattion. Trump is about to get crushed by organizations who will run ads blasting his presidency, and all the stuff has has talked in his rallies is going to be played as well. We will be reminded of 1-6, and then there will be videos about the trials.

The game his not started yet and Trump supporters are declaring victory. But:

Why Trump Won’t Win​

Over the past few weeks, warnings about the threat posed by Donald Trump’s potential reelection have grown louder, including in a series of articles in The Atlantic. This alarm-raising is justified and appropriate, given the looming danger of authoritarianism in American politics. But amid all of the worrying, we might be losing sight of the most important fact: Trump’s chances of winning are slim.

Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t.

Trump’s flaws look far worse today than they did eight years ago. To take one example that should concern conservative voters: his behavior toward and views of service members.

Similarly, in 2016, Trump’s campaign was briefly rocked by the Access Hollywood videotape in which he boasted about grabbing women by the genitalia. He survived, in large part because many voters chose to accept his comments as “locker room” bluster. Several women accused him of sexual misconduct, but Trump fended off their allegations too. Now he has been held civilly liable by a New York jury for sexually abusing the advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996. A federal judge has said that the jury concluded that what Trump did to Carroll was rape in the common sense of the term. Some Americans will shrug that off, but many won’t be able to.

Why Trump Won’t Win

His threats to democracy make him dangerous. They also make him a weak candidate.

www.theatlantic.com

The entire world hopes you are right. It depends on whether Trump can fool his disciples again. Nothing can stop them. Anything bad about Trump will just make them fiercer. Trump will use it to mobilize them. They are certainly right on some issues but Trump doesn´t care.

Argument : Trump didn´t act in his first tenure.
Answer: Democrats blocked him.

Argument: Trump is a cheater, has never been honest on anything.
Answer: Deep state spreads this lies.


So any ad, any attack can backfire and the Trump train keeps rolling even faster. And there are no achievements the Democrats can offer. Trump might win. We must prepare.

 

[Lakhota]

Am I the only one who thinks that Donald Trump won't win in 2024?

Nope.

Loser in chief

Granted, polls look grim for Biden. Trump is actually ahead in several polls in swing states. Trump is clinching the Republican nomination even before the first primaries, Biden is somehow even less popular than Trump. It does look like the 2024 election is at least favoring Trump, if not already won for him.

But it’s not so simple. A week is a long time in politics, the election is more than 50 weeks away. A lot will happen in the meantime, starting with several high-profile trials of DJ Trump for very real misconduct in office. Right now a big part of his poll numbers is just that, he’s getting loads and loads of exposure and TV time thanks to the upcoming trials, exploration, evidence is revealed to the public and so on. However the judge’s hammers will start coming down and before the elections too. Trump may win some of the trials, but he will lose most.

NY civil suit is first, he’s looking into a deep cut of his (alleged) wealth. Bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. Georgia election subversion trial is a major threat, it would come with real jail time and it’s a state offence with no possibility of a presidential pardon. Classified documents case is open and shut, the best defense Trump can offer is “they did it too”, which might work for the crowds, but not in a court of law.

Furthermore some of Biden’s current weakness is thanks to his support for Israel in the Gaza war. Muslim Americans and people who support Palestinians in general tend to vote Democrat, not Republican. They may well say they don’t support Biden in the poll one year ahead of the election day, but when presented with a choice of either this guy or Trump, they probably won’t shy from voting for Biden. If the election was next week then yes, Trump is ascendant, but I don’t expect Gaza war to have a big effect on Biden a year from now and the effect of TV exposure from being convicted in a high-profile trial is very different to merely being accused of the crime. These will no longer help Trump a year from now, without them he’s no longer ahead of Biden.

There may be other effects that are likely to damage Trump - convictions, bankruptcies, MAGA Republicans in the Congress being unmanageable and starting food fights during the Congressional debate and more are all fairly likely and we will see at least some of them. I would expect these predominantly to harm Trump.

Of course it is also possible Trump escapes from his legal hurdles somehow. The only way I see it is by introducing a couple MAGA hats to his juries, which is unlikely, but not impossible. Being declared not guilty in several trials would help him, even though his guilt would be obvious for all. There may also be other unforeseen factors that help Trump in various ways, such as the FSB putting their thumb on the scale somehow, or the Chinese intelligence doing something and so on. Americas’ enemies want Trump 2, this much is clear, and that is not to be underestimated. The world is not actually safe from Trump 2.

Still, barring another event like the Gaza war as the October ’24 surprise or that war taking a year to play out, or Trump getting MAGA hats on several of his juries, or foreign spies seriously affecting American elections, Trump is looking at another electoral loss in 2024. Those events are certainly not impossible, but not inevitable either.

ETA: Anders Ljung in the comment pointed out another highly relevant factor: Trump has been campaigning since 2016, he never stopped. Biden has not yet begun to campaign. You would expect a politician who is not campaigning to have worse poll numbers than one who is, all else being equal. Biden has approximately 50 years of experience in Washington politics and won every election he stood in for decades on end. Whatever his strategy is, he certainly has reasons for making it such and probably knows more on how to run a successful campaign than any three analysts combined. This is then backed by a strong team that got him elected over and over again. It would be rather foolish to underestimate Biden and assume he’s clueless on how to win reelections.

 

[Marchimedes]

Argument : Trump didn´t act in his first tenure.

Trump did the most important thing for America.

He lowered taxes.

 

[cnm]

truth?

neiither side is running on truth,

Every conservative accusation is a confession.