Why Republicans Can't Win

[jgarden]

Obama will win because the Republicans/Tea Party has shifted so far to the right that it won't nominate Romney.

All the Democrats really need to do is give the Tea Party enough rope (time), and they will "hang" themselves in the eyes in the American people.

There only real worry is if Romney somehow squeaks through and wins the GOP nomination!

 

[Oldstyle]

Obama is not nearly as weak as the Hard Right portrays him, not at all. Perry has an outside chance of taking him on, Romney a much better one, and no Tea Party candidate has a chance at all. Think of all the Nevadans last November who went to the polls and had to decide between Reid and Angle. They stuffed a rag in their collective mouth, held their nose, and voted for Harry. The Tea Party will cost the GOP presidency if they put the American electorate in a similar situation.

It is not just the hard right that views Obama as weak. The far left does as well. Obama's base has crumbled. He has lost the center. He has lost the college age people that voted for the first time. They all have jobs now and bills to pay. They will not be back. At least to vote for Obama again. And the white suburban moderates....forget them. Too many of them have fallen on hard economic times, lost jobs or lost their home to foreclosure.
People are going to vote economy and kitchen table issues.
They do not care about hope and change.They want a clear policy. Not promises. They want a plan and they want to see how it is going to be implemented and how it will be funded before they go ahead and vote for Obama. There is no boogeyman for Obama to run against. His "A vote for the GOP is a vote for the George Bush policies of the past" rant doesn't wash anymore.
If the economy does not improve by mid 2012, Obama would lose to Mickey Mouse.

There's a HUGE BIG GAPING FLAW in your little argument there...

However much the "base" crumbles...especially the far left...they're still going to like Obama more than whomever the rabid right puts out there.

So the Right beats up on itself throughout the primary...and their candidates are the worse for wear. Independents may get turned off.

I will say that for the same reason that a lot of people voted for Obama, independents might vote Republican. If the Repubs were to really stress their candidate's business prowess instead of moral issues...they might be seen as the cure to the economy.

You have a rather gaping flaw in your argument as well, Van...the liberal base might like Obama more than whoever the right selects as a candidate but do they love him like they did in 2008 when they turned out in record numbers to elect him? My prediction is that although Obama and the Democrats will still get high percentages of the young and black vote, that the overall numbers of voters in those two demographics is going to be off in a HUGE way. Both blacks and young voters expected so much from this President and he's given them very little except three years of rhetorical flourishes. I think even "they" have gotten tired of his spiel by now.

 

[Vanquish]

Fair enough. The record turn out could have been a fluke, not to be repeated. That's especially possible in a second-term election...where so much has gone wrong during the preceding years.

I'm an independent and I find myself wishing there was a third choice...and even contemplating trying something different just for the sake of difference. The same way I felt right before I decided against Bush.

If I really saw a strong fiscal leader...with liberal social policies...that's who I'd vote for. Ron Paul was looking good until I found out more about him.

 

[GHook93]

I will dissect your post piece by piece!

Obama's approval rating is misleading. The economy is bad. People are anxious. Any president's approval rating would be bad in this environment.

LOL, he is getting the blame for making the economy worse as he should get! Word to stupid when economies remain this bad for long enough people replace the encumbent!

The Republicans can't run an "unnamed opponent". If they could figure a way to do this, they would, but they can't. Whichever candidate they nominate is already trailing Obama. RCP: vs. Perry + 8.2%; vs. Romney + 3%; Bachman + 14.5%.

First, polls mean dick this early in the election. There have been any debates between the parties, the economy hasn't gotten worse or better etc.
Second, anyone with brain will tell you the encumbent is in trouble if he will killing it in the polls before his opponent gets named.
Third, Romney, Cain and Huntsman would woop the pants off of Obama! Take the to the bank.

The Republican party is dominated by right-wing nut jobs, whose ideology offends most Americans.

The base of the party are rightwingers, but the base of the Democrats are leftwingers whose ideology offends most Americans! It's the independents that the candidates need to appeal to. Obama did that in the last election, because he had no record and ran as an moderate. Now he has a failied liberal agenda that will turn off most independant. Some candidates will have trouble appealing the independant, like Bachmann and Perry. But other's like businessmen, Romney, Cain and Huntsman will WIN the independents.

Examples: booing soldiers for being gay,

First, at least is better than the Democratic base who boo ALL THE SOLDIERS.
Second, it was wrong for them to do that and it's wrong that that questions has been brought up, its a settled non-issue.

cheering the idea of letting uninsured people die, etc.

Those were the Radical Paul supports. FOOLS! I guarantee if you did an audit, conservatives give more to charity than liberals any day of the week!

Most of the Republican field is unelectable. If they nominate one of their unelectabes, their chances of beating Obama become negligible.

Cain will be your worst nightmare. An economic and math genius. A guy that knows how to bring dying companies to dominance! He has run small business along with large corps! He also takes away the Dimocrats only weapon -RACE BAITING! Cain can also debate with the best of them and deliver a speech without a telepromter.

Romney appeals to independents, how else could be be elected as a Republican governor in the liberalist of the liberal states? His economic success will resinate with independents.

Put these two together and you have a dynomite ticket!

The Republicans have no plan for improving the economy.

Just because you have READ or CARE TO READ Cain and Romney's plan, doesn't mean they don't have one. In fact they have great one!

Obama has a plan, however that socialist plan is failing miserably! He needs to change his plan, but he refuses to do so!

House Republicans are hell bent on proving how dangerous it is to elect Republicans, and how little they actually care about governing.

LOL, by stopping America from becoming Greece? By not allowing the Dimcrats to make it even harder and more expensive to do business in America?

True a bad GOP leader can be dangerous, but so is a bad Democratic leader. You need the right one and that definitely isn't Obama!

 

[Oldstyle]

Obama is not nearly as weak as the Hard Right portrays him, not at all. Perry has an outside chance of taking him on, Romney a much better one, and no Tea Party candidate has a chance at all. Think of all the Nevadans last November who went to the polls and had to decide between Reid and Angle. They stuffed a rag in their collective mouth, held their nose, and voted for Harry. The Tea Party will cost the GOP presidency if they put the American electorate in a similar situation.

He's not "weak" at all.

He's got about the same numbers Roosevelt, Truman, Reagan and Clinton had around their first term..relatively speaking.

The alternative is dismal, as well. The best they have right now, Romney, comes with a plethora of flip flops and skeletons from his private industry days.

Everyone else is laughable. I've never seen a field of candidates like this. At least McCain was a war hero and had some pretty good legislative accomplishments.

Relative? You are being as silly as the Hard Right. Obama is down from the 46% that Truman, Eisenhower, and Clinton all had before their comeback elections. You are silly if you think Romney and Perry right now don't have a reasonable, relative change of beating Obama.

Man, there be a buncha dreamin and schemin from the Hard Left and the Hard Right here.

I've been telling people for the past year that their comparing Obama's approval numbers to Reagan's at the same time in their Presidencies was self deluding. Early on Reagan enacted some painful measures to counteract the stagflation that he inherited. Doing so made unemployment increase and had people angry with him. That started to change about three years into his first term when he cut taxes and the economy started improving rapidly. Barack Obama on the other hand, hasn't done anything painful to get things turned around. He borrowed trillions to keep government workers employed and to fund progressive boondoggles like Solyndra. None of it worked and the economy isn't getting better...it's actually looking like it's about to slide into a double dip recession. Reagan's numbers got steadily better going into his fourth year...it's looking like Obama's will only get worse if the economy stays the same.

 

[Chris]

Obama's approval rating is misleading. The economy is bad. People are anxious. Any president's approval rating would be bad in this environment.

The Republicans can't run an "unnamed opponent". If they could figure a way to do this, they would, but they can't. Whichever candidate they nominate is already trailing Obama. RCP: vs. Perry + 8.2%; vs. Romney + 3%; Bachman + 14.5%.

The Republican party is dominated by right-wing nut jobs, whose ideology offends most Americans. Examples: booing soldiers for being gay, cheering the idea of letting uninsured people die, etc.

Most of the Republican field is unelectable. If they nominate one of their unelectabes, their chances of beating Obama become negligible.

The Republicans have no plan for improving the economy.

House Republicans are hell bent on proving how dangerous it is to elect Republicans, and how little they actually care about governing.

The Republicans won't win because the Democratic Party has become the Republican Party, and the Republican Party has become the John Birch Society.

 

[JoeB131]

Here's the thing of it. I think that if you are going to make the case of replacing an existing president, you have to present a sharp contrast.

Romney doesn't present a sharp contrast. He governed Massachusetts pretty much the same way that Obama Governs America. He really would be more of the same.

Perry, on the other hand, IS a sharp contrast to Obama, on both policy views and decisiveness.

I suspect, though, that the GOP leadership in Washington is going to impose Romney on us, and we'll end up losing.

 

[The Rabbi]

Here's the thing of it. I think that if you are going to make the case of replacing an existing president, you have to present a sharp contrast.

Romney doesn't present a sharp contrast. He governed Massachusetts pretty much the same way that Obama Governs America. He really would be more of the same.

Perry, on the other hand, IS a sharp contrast to Obama, on both policy views and decisiveness.

I suspect, though, that the GOP leadership in Washington is going to impose Romney on us, and we'll end up losing.

Romney is a contrast to Obama. He has experience and seems reasonably competent. He isn't my first choice but I'll bet a lot of voters are thinking, I'll take him over what we have any day.

 

[MiddleClass]

Republicans can win congressional elections in a mid term when most stay home, but Republicans face a big up hill battle to win against a standing President, especially when they have been exposed for the radicals they have become. Independents are turning away from the GOP in droves, which leaves many moderate Republicans disenfranchised and apathetic. All that is left is the loud minority stomping their collective feet while whining at the top of their lungs about nothing but tax policy. Not even another recession could defeat Obama. He is a lock.

 

[Ame®icano]

Why Republicans Can't Win?

 

[Toro]

Republicans can win congressional elections in a mid term when most stay home, but Republicans face a big up hill battle to win against a standing President, especially when they have been exposed for the radicals they have become. Independents are turning away from the GOP in droves, which leaves many moderate Republicans disenfranchised and apathetic. All that is left is the loud minority stomping their collective feet while whining at the top of their lungs about nothing but tax policy. Not even another recession could defeat Obama. He is a lock.

He's a lock?

If it's a lock, you should bet on it then.

Intrade is offering odds on Obama's reelection at about even. If something is a certainty, you should try to profit from it.

 

[Dragon]

I've been telling people for the past year that their comparing Obama's approval numbers to Reagan's at the same time in their Presidencies was self deluding. Early on Reagan enacted some painful measures to counteract the stagflation that he inherited. Doing so made unemployment increase and had people angry with him. That started to change about three years into his first term when he cut taxes and the economy started improving rapidly.

Fine until the last sentence. Reagan's first-term tax cut came in 1981. The economic improvement beginning in 1983 therefore did not follow from this tax cut as you implied. For something that is plausibly the cause of the economic turnaround, try the drop in oil prices that occurred in 1983 as new oil fields finally came on line and broke OPEC's stranglehold. Of course, that had nothing to do with any Reagan policy one way or another (especially as it mostly took place in foreign countries where no Reagan policy had any jurisdiction anyway).

However, I do agree that Reagan's very poor poll numbers in 1982-83 were due to his induced recession and aren't necessarily a good comparison with Obama.

Here's another thing, though. Obama has begun acting like a liberal once more, engaging in class warfare and standing up to the Republicans in Congress. If he keeps it up, this will help a great deal with the disaffection he has been suffering from his supporters. It could well be enough to ensure him reelection.

Key to understanding for conservatives: If you hate something he's saying or doing, it will probably help him. If you think it's OK, it will probably hurt him, unless it's a successful military move like taking down OBL.

 

[JakeStarkey]

New oil fields, military and defense spending, and so forth. The tax cuts had very little to do with the recovery.