Why early voting numbers aren't reliable in predicting election outcomes

[Meathead]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

Bit early for panic. There'll be plenty of time later.

 

[WheelieAddict]

It's probably harder to poll the public nowadays when some don't have a traditional landline number etc.

 

[Lesh]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

Yup...Republicans with low six figure incomes in states like California and New York and New Jersey and elsewhere got hefty tax INCREASES.

Ya have to wonder how those people will vote

 

[ptbw forever]

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

Yup...Republicans with low six figure incomes in states like California and New York and New Jersey and elsewhere got hefty tax INCREASES.

Ya have to wonder how those people will vote

Against the Democrats who have destroyed their state.

 

[Deno]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

Lets just say for shits and giggles you are right….

That would still be a HISTORIC loss…………

But the fact is the RED wave is coming….

We are going to run over your libtarded asses like a freight train…

We know deep down you see it coming…

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

Hahahaha

Someone is nervous lol

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

You could have save a lot of time and just typed: ****!!!

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Yup...Republicans with low six figure incomes in states like California and New York and New Jersey and elsewhere got hefty tax INCREASES.

Ya have to wonder how those people will vote

With their feet (i.e. moving truck).

.

 

[Lesh]

Yup...Republicans with low six figure incomes in states like California and New York and New Jersey and elsewhere got hefty tax INCREASES.

Ya have to wonder how those people will vote

With their feet (i.e. moving truck).

.

They are my neighbors...and none of them are talking about moving out of state unless they are retiring

 

[Hellokitty]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

Sounds like libs are trying to lower expectations of the blue wave...

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

Yup...Republicans with low six figure incomes in states like California and New York and New Jersey and elsewhere got hefty tax INCREASES.

Ya have to wonder how those people will vote

We know how the entire state will vote, so your point is moot.

If Republicans decide to live in a liberal state, then they knew what they were in for by moving or staying there. We are a free country where people can leave high taxed liberal states and join real Americans in any one of the other non-liberal states.

 

[longknife]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

And the figures do not include absentee ballots.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I am going to laugh at you forever once you are proven wrong for the 2nd election in a row.

The same idiots who thought Trump couldn't win and that the Republicans would lose the Senate in 2016 are now saying that Democrats will claim the House and reduce Republican gains in the Senate to a minimum.

It is almost like all of you are just pulling this shit out of your ass.

I'm simply going by the multiple polling of races and historical trends. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't think so. In actuality, I have no desire to see loons like Pelosi, Waters, and Schiff in positions of power, but I think that's what we're going to see.