Why china is running out of time to invade Taiwan

[Mac-7]

Is a faltering china a bigger threat to world peace?

A very well informed academic believes so

 

[kyzr]

Desperation is not a good look for China.

They always play the long game, they said they will own Taiwan by 2049, no worries.

https://interpret.csis.org/what-is-beijings-timeline-for-reunification-with-taiwan/

What is Beijing’s Timeline for “Reunification” with Taiwan?​

The most clear and direct articulation of a timeline for national unification with Taiwan is through its direct linkage with “national rejuvenation,” a narrative vision used frequently in Chinese political discourse that refers to the revival of China’s prosperity, national power, and international standing. According to authoritative documents and statements by Chinese leaders, “rejuvenation” should be achieved by 2049, which marks the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Is a faltering china a bigger threat to world peace?

A very well informed academic believes so

You can't capitulate to a central power with the assunption "if they decline we are in trouble". This is deeply flawed thinking. Indeed, if they EXPAND, we are in trouble. A weakened China is better than a more powerful one. The West, lead most by the U.S in particular, have funded their technology and expansion. Politicians and CEOs of what were once U.S firms sold out American national security and risked the lives of millions for cheap slave labour. It is frightening how dense, selfish and cruel our species can be

 

[gtopa1]

You can't capitulate to a central power with the assunption "if they decline we are in trouble". This is deeply flawed thinking. Indeed, if they EXPAND, we are in trouble. A weakened China is better than a more powerful one. The West, lead most by the U.S in particular, have funded their technology and expansion. Politicians and CEOs of what were once U.S firms sold out American national security and risked the lives of millions for cheap slave labour. It is frightening how dense, selfish and cruel our species can be

Remember the old scenario; General X said "My army is lacking in Ordnance, food, shelter and Morale. They are exhausted. In a week they will disintegrate as a fighting entity. There is only ONE THING TO DO; WE MUST ATTACK"!!! (Forget where I heard it).

Greg

 

[rightwinger]

China is incapable of invading Taiwan

They would have to take it by economic means

 

[22lcidw]

China is incapable of invading Taiwan

They would have to take it by economic means

China could do it. It is just the amount of destruction to the island there would be. A lot of production and technology which is their prize on that level. The other is that it opens up the Chinese military to spread out its access in the Pacific Ocean with its quick expanding NAVY.

 

[JWBooth]

It wasn’t gonna happen anyway. This is just bs stirred by the MIC to gin up spending.

 

[wamose]

Our plan should be to knock China down at every opportunity. It would be nice if the people eventually overthrow their asshole government.

 

[otto105]

Is a faltering china a bigger threat to world peace?

A very well informed academic believes so

So, an AEI conservative writes…

Color me not impressed.

 

[Mac-7]

Desperation is not a good look for China.

They always play the long game, they said they will own Taiwan by 2049, no worries.

https://interpret.csis.org/what-is-beijings-timeline-for-reunification-with-taiwan/

What is Beijing’s Timeline for “Reunification” with Taiwan?​

The most clear and direct articulation of a timeline for national unification with Taiwan is through its direct linkage with “national rejuvenation,” a narrative vision used frequently in Chinese political discourse that refers to the revival of China’s prosperity, national power, and international standing. According to authoritative documents and statements by Chinese leaders, “rejuvenation” should be achieved by 2049, which marks the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding.

I think that timeline is obsolete

The chinese economy has slowed to a standstill and was in decline even before Covid19

Now it has a massive real estate crisis which is threatening to topple the banking system

Add to that a demographic problem of a shrinking population that is getting older

And now led by the United States there is growing resistance to china’s only economic strength which is exports

Without the money china needs from export manufacturing the overall situation becomes critical for the CCP

 

[Mac-7]

China could do it. It is just the amount of destruction to the island there would be. A lot of production and technology which is their prize on that level. The other is that it opens up the Chinese military to spread out its access in the Pacific Ocean with its quick expanding NAVY.

On paper china might win a war over Taiwan against the US and our Pacific allies.

But its not a given

 

[Mac-7]

So, an AEI conservative writes…

Color me not impressed.

He seems qualified to me

Michael Beckley

www.aei.org

He has a PhD in political science from Columbia University and a BA in international studies from Emory University.

Experience​

• Foreign Policy Research Institute:Director of the Asia Program, 2023–present
• Tufts University: Associate Professor, 2019–present; Assistant Professor, 2013–19
• Harvard Kennedy School: Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2011–12; 2017–19
• Columbia University: Adjunct Professor, 2017; Teaching Fellow, 2007–08
• Science Applications International Corporation: Senior China Policy Analyst, 2013–14
• RAND Corporation: Summer Associate, 2011
• US Department of Defense: Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy Planning), Faculty Fellow in National Security, 2006
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Junior Fellow, 2004–05

Education​

PhD, political science, Columbia University
BA, international studies, Emory University

 

[otto105]

He seems qualified to me

Michael Beckley

www.aei.org

He has a PhD in political science from Columbia University and a BA in international studies from Emory University.

Experience​

• Foreign Policy Research Institute:Director of the Asia Program, 2023–present
• Tufts University: Associate Professor, 2019–present; Assistant Professor, 2013–19
• Harvard Kennedy School: Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2011–12; 2017–19
• Columbia University: Adjunct Professor, 2017; Teaching Fellow, 2007–08
• Science Applications International Corporation: Senior China Policy Analyst, 2013–14
• RAND Corporation: Summer Associate, 2011
• US Department of Defense: Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy Planning), Faculty Fellow in National Security, 2006
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Junior Fellow, 2004–05

Education​

PhD, political science, Columbia University
BA, international studies, Emory University

It’s a conservative opinion and one they have been repeating for a decade now.

 

[Mac-7]

It’s a conservative opinion and one they have been repeating for a decade now.

This is not lib la la land where conservatives are not allowed to have an opinion

 

[otto105]

This is not lib la la land where conservatives are not allowed to have an opinion

Didn’t post that he couldn’t state an opinion.

I’m just not agreeing with it.

 

[rightwinger]

On paper china might win a war over Taiwan against the US and our Pacific allies.

But its not a given

China has never fought a modern war or conducted an amphibious landing

 

[Mac-7]

China has never fought a modern war or conducted an amphibious landing

Some learned people think china will not invade Taiwan but use their vast navy to starve the Taiwanese into submission

That would still lead to war but without a Normandy style D-Day

 

[rightwinger]

Some learned people think china will not invade Taiwan but use their vast navy to starve the Taiwanese into submission

That would still lead to war but without a Normandy style D-Day

Can Taiwan take out China’s Navy using anti-ship missiles, submarines, air attacks, mines, air and sea drones?

Ukraine had no Navy but drove Russia out of the Black Sea using sea drones

 

[kyzr]

Can Taiwan take out China’s Navy using anti-ship missiles, submarines, air attacks, mines, air and sea drones?
Ukraine had no Navy but drove Russia out of the Black Sea using sea drones

If there is a war with China one of their vulnerabilities is oil.
It would be very easy to stop oil shipments to China by sea.
Not sure if the Russian pipeline s operational yet, but even then, not enough.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

If there is a war with China one of their vulnerabilities is oil.
It would be very easy to stop oil shipments to China by sea.
Not sure if the Russian pipeline s operational yet, but even then, not enough.

We tried that with Japan.