william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
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Fairly simple question for some things but not for others
DJIA=1 oz of gold means that the stock market has reached bottom. The market can bottom at higher levels but has not bottomed at significantly lower levels since the DJIA was created in the late 1800s. The linkage to the explicit or implicit storage costs of gold vs. the net dividend yield of the DJIA is what causes this relationship but examining the nuts and bolts of why gets complicated. If you have a simple and easy to understand way of explaining this please post it.
Real estate, when rents are at or above 125% mortgage payments for comparable properties then the bottom is reached because it is then cheaper to put 20% down and buy rather than rent.
When AAA bonds pay 250% of the dividend yield of the DJIA then bonds are paying the same expected returns as stocks but with greater safety.
That is the simple stuff but what is complicated is figuring out the bottom for unemployment, debt loads and the other things that have people scared. So what I am asking is put up your rules of thumb and see what the response is.
DJIA=1 oz of gold means that the stock market has reached bottom. The market can bottom at higher levels but has not bottomed at significantly lower levels since the DJIA was created in the late 1800s. The linkage to the explicit or implicit storage costs of gold vs. the net dividend yield of the DJIA is what causes this relationship but examining the nuts and bolts of why gets complicated. If you have a simple and easy to understand way of explaining this please post it.
Real estate, when rents are at or above 125% mortgage payments for comparable properties then the bottom is reached because it is then cheaper to put 20% down and buy rather than rent.
When AAA bonds pay 250% of the dividend yield of the DJIA then bonds are paying the same expected returns as stocks but with greater safety.
That is the simple stuff but what is complicated is figuring out the bottom for unemployment, debt loads and the other things that have people scared. So what I am asking is put up your rules of thumb and see what the response is.