Where Did ’97 Percent’ Global Warming Consensus Figure Come From?

[westwall]

Still waiting to hear what Kosh is going to do with the data and the code.

What any real scientist would do. Run the experiment (your computer model) and compare with real world observation. That's how the scientific method works....you as a scientist, are REQUIRED to hand your work over to others so they can test your work.

That's where that funny little word called repeatability comes in...

 

[asterism]

Still waiting to hear what Kosh is going to do with the data and the code.

Aren't you the guy that tried to tell a programmer (me) that I couldn't decompress a tar of "raw data" only to be shown that it wasn't actually raw data?

No wonder you changed your username.

 

[Crick]

I have no recollection of doing any such thing. I suggest you are thinking of someone else.

 

[Crick]

Still waiting to hear what Kosh is going to do with the data and the code.

What any real scientist would do. Run the experiment (your computer model) and compare with real world observation. That's how the scientific method works....you as a scientist, are REQUIRED to hand your work over to others so they can test your work.

That's where that funny little word called repeatability comes in...

There are dozens of temperature datasets (or any other climate parameter you think you need) available to the public. I listed a half a dozen URLs for them for you or SSDD just a couple of days ago. There are also numerous climate model code listings available.

The truth, of course, is that not a single denier here, and most certainly not Kosh have ANYTHING like the capacity to do anything with such items, even had they the intention.

 

[asterism]

I have no recollection of doing any such thing. I suggest you are thinking of someone else.

No, it's you.

What are the chances you'll remember that you think you found raw data and have been proven wrong?

DEAR ASTERISM,

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080211193111TMIN-9999 -

From State08_Fl.txt.gz from the link provided.

You couldn't find the archive, you couldn't understand a GIN file and you couldn't extract a gz. And yet you claim to be a programmer. I don't understand. I really don't undderstand.

This is what you posted as "raw data" too.

 

[asterism]

Still waiting to hear what Kosh is going to do with the data and the code.

What any real scientist would do. Run the experiment (your computer model) and compare with real world observation. That's how the scientific method works....you as a scientist, are REQUIRED to hand your work over to others so they can test your work.

That's where that funny little word called repeatability comes in...

There are dozens of temperature datasets (or any other climate parameter you think you need) available to the public. I listed a half a dozen URLs for them for you or SSDD just a couple of days ago. There are also numerous climate model code listings available.

The truth, of course, is that not a single denier here, and most certainly not Kosh have ANYTHING like the capacity to do anything with such items, even had they the intention.

Does an actual climatologist with impeccable credentials and university resources have the capacity to do "anything" with the data in your opinion?

He couldn't get it either.

Thus it is with some surprise to observe CRU going through bizarre contortions to avoid releasing its climate data to Steve McIntyre. They first told him that he couldn't have it because he was not an academic. I found this to be a petty reason for keeping data out of the hands of someone who clearly wants to examine it for scholarly purposes. So, wanting to test this theory I asked CRU for the data myself, being a "real" academic. I received a letter back from CRU stating that I couldn't have the data because "we do not hold the requested information."

I found that odd. How can they not hold the data when they are showing graphs of global temperatures on their webpage? However, it turns out that CRU has in response to requests for its data put up a new webpage with the following remarkable admission (emphasis added):

We are not in a position to supply data for a particular country not covered by the example agreements referred to earlier, as we have never had sufficient resources to keep track of the exact source of each individual monthly value. Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.​

Say what?! CRU has lost track of the original data that it uses to create its global temperature record!?

Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: We Lost the Original Data

 

[Crick]

Climate datasets in the public domain

The Observed Climate

ESRL : PSD : All Gridded Datasets

Datasets | Climate Data Online (CDO) | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Climate Data Online (CDO) - The National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. | National Climatic Data Center

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/

High-resolution gridded datasets

RealClimate: Data Sources

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)

Open Data Resources for Climate Change | Data

Met Office: UKCP09: Gridded observation data sets

Met Office: Download regional values

IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library

http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/

http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/documents/PRISM_datasets_aug2013.pdf

Are you people so stupid you couldn't find these, too lazy to spend five seconds in Google or - could it be - you never had any interest in this at all?

 

[Crick]

General Circulation Models (and a couple of ocean models) in the public domain

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie: ECHAM

NEMO Home Page - NEMO Website

CESM Models | CCSM3.0 Public Release

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie: Models

Quickstart Guide: FMS AM2 Model

The FMS MOM4 User Guide

http://aom.giss.nasa.gov/

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/

IGCMG

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/publications/papers/unified_model/

Table of Participating CMIP Models

 

[Crick]

So, get hot you jackass.

 

[asterism]

So, get hot you jackass.

No raw data before 1979. Try again.

 

[Crick]

Bullshit. It took me 15 seconds to find data going back to 1901.

So what should I assume from your propensity for dishonesty?

 

[IanC]

Crickham- you are far too credulous. You believe all the 'adjustments' are legitimate and are carried out as they are supposed to be, and without significant mistakes. It doesn't seem to maatter to you when major screwups are pointed out.

I showed how a Russian city with an aluminum smelter was labeled rural because the original coordinates were now under water and therfore showed no bright lights. That 'rural' station is used to adjust stations within a thousand kilometers!

Iceland had a cool period in the 60's and 70's that is well documented and caused hardship to the nation. Homogenization made it disappear. No explanation and no correction were forthcoming when it was questioned.

With all the money being dumped into global warming we should at least carry out an independent audit to verify station data and see if the adjustments are doing what they are supposed to do.

 

[Crick]

If I am credulous, it at least has arguable justification. Your position requires accepting a global conspiracy of the world's climate scientists and multiple government climate science organizations - from multiple nations. That is a position that beggars belief.

 

[asterism]

Bullshit. It took me 15 seconds to find data going back to 1901.

So what should I assume from your propensity for dishonesty?

Post what you found. Let's see if you've learned anything, especially the term "raw data."

 

[Crick]

Do your own work. I've done more than enough for you lazy assholes.

 

[asterism]

If I am credulous, it at least has arguable justification. Your position requires accepting a global conspiracy of the world's climate scientists and multiple government climate science organizations - from multiple nations. That is a position that beggars belief.

No, it requires observation of groupthink coupled with some sincere folks who just weren't all that good at data management. The vast majority of climatologists practicing today just accept what they have been told and have had no valid reason to question the basics.

My wife's cousin is very honest and intelligent. She's a research coordinator for a university climate center. Her BA is in Biology and her MA is in Environmental Economics. I asked her about the data behind the hockey stick and if she'd ever looked into it. She hadn't and then asked if I question basic tenets of astronomy like the Galilean moons. I showed her the record of my observation and then she got curious.

It boils down to research grants for her. Regardless of the basic premise, there is grant money available to study (validly) the effects of warmer global temperatures in the food supply chain. She's correct on that part. So she still agrees with the basic premise of Anthropogenic Global Warming, but it's because she was taught it, not because she researched it.

But just to shut me up, she tried to get the raw data temperature record. Her results are similar to this guy (a credentialed climatologist):

Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: We Lost the Original Data

 

[asterism]

Do your own work. I've done more than enough for you lazy assholes.

So that means you didn't actually find any raw data to post.

 

[Crick]

I really don't care what you think. If you want to assume falsehoods because you just too lazy to look for yourself, that's your problem.

 

[IanC]

If I am credulous, it at least has arguable justification. Your position requires accepting a global conspiracy of the world's climate scientists and multiple government climate science organizations - from multiple nations. That is a position that beggars belief.

where have I conjured up a conspiracy? I am stating that there are mistakes being made and not being corrected. I am stating that when results of new methods come back with the 'approved' trends, no further investigation seems necessary but if it is in the opposite direction a lot of effort is made to bring it into line.

there are basically an infinite number of ways to adjust the data. who knows how many methods have been tried out. I am pretty sure that the ones that give increased warming and higher trends get more attention. it is human nature to look for confirmation of the outlook that is already held. homogenization and infilling of empty grid cells has been a sad joke. giving the same credibility to junk data from poorly measured areas like Africa, as we do to much more reliable areas like the US is a joke.

 

[asterism]

I really don't care what you think. If you want to assume falsehoods because you just too lazy to look for yourself, that's your problem.

I did look, that's the part you don't seem to understand. There is no raw data before 1979 in those links you posted. If you say you found some, post it. This should be a very simple way to prove me wrong, so why not just do that?


(because you can't, that's why)