When did China Crash in terms of U6?

[william the wie]

I assume that when 1/3 or more of those 16-65 are either unemployed or have left the labor force a crash has happened as with the US since the meltdown. But in our case with multiple unsustained recoveries..China is using the Japanese model which makes recoveries much more difficult because no one believes the happy face data from the government. So, when and why if you know did China crash?

 

[RubberGloveSeduction]

That is interesting, where do you get CHina U-6 numbers?

 

[william the wie]

Sometimes you do and sometimes you don't. The estimates I am most acquainted with are from satellite imagery of cities and factories that suddenly have empty parking lots. No one trusts the official numbers which are at least put out fairly regularly. I'm trying to find out if our intelligence services have some sort of declassified data series. March 17, 2015 is one date but there are many others/

 

[RubberGloveSeduction]

The estimates I am most acquainted with are from satellite imagery of cities and factories that suddenly have empty parking lots.

You can't be serious, this really is your source for 1/3 of China's workforce being under/unemployed?

U-6 requires knowing various aspects of an unemployed person's situation, have they looked in past 30 days or have they given up etc. there is no way you can know that by analyzing parking lots. What percentage of Chinese people even commute in cars to be seen in parking lots? Are the satellite images happened to be on a holiday/weekend?

I acknowledge you can't trust China's official numbers (although I've never heard of them attempting to publish U-6) but looking at parking lots seems no better.

 

[william the wie]

Actually some provincial U-6 bynbers do get leaked and onsite stories of once major cities come out but there is no data series.

 

[RubberGloveSeduction]

I'd be interested to see that, I didn't know China did any sort of polling that would lead to U-6 type numbers. Where can find?

 

[AdvancingTime]

Big problems started surfacing in China about two years ago. Time and time again history has shown that when an economy has overbuilt, over leveraged, and over reaches a reset occurs. China is in a situation similar to what America faced in 1929 following a period of rapid growth and credit expansion.

Currently China is attempting to remake their economy rely less on investment and exports and more on their own consumers. This is a major shift for China's economy and we should not be surprised if China's leaders are unable to make the transition in an orderly fashion. The article below delves into this issue.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/02/chinas-economy-policy-akin-to-pushing.html

 

[william the wie]

Thank you.

 

[RubberGloveSeduction]

Still interested to see China's U-6 numbers. I don't doubt they have unemployment issues but am surprised they do a U-6 type survey.

 

[william the wie]

I've heard it cited on NBR but only provincial numbers.