NATO AIR
Senior Member
safire's theory is one i can see a lot of truth in... we may be paying a heavy price for liberating iraq and transforming it, but we would have paid an even heavier price had we not...
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/20/opinion/20safire.html?oref=login&hp
OP-ED COLUMNIST
Roth Plot II
By WILLIAM SAFIRE
Published: December 20, 2004
Washington In "The Plot Against America," the novelist Philip Roth imagined what might have befallen this nation if the appeasing Charles A. Lindbergh had defeated the anti-Hitler F.D.R. in the 1940 election.
Here's my idea for the sequel:
Opening scene in the Oval Office in winter 2001, after U.S. and allied forces crushed the Taliban in retaliation for their part in 9/11, with bin Laden not yet found in Afghanistan.
President Bush tells his national security aides he wants to continue to wage war against the web of terrorists, lest America be attacked again with nukes or germs.
The C.I.A.'s Tenet notes that Saddam's Iraq harbors the terrorists Nidal and al-Zarqawi. Adviser Rice adds that world intelligence services agree that Saddam seeks awful weapons. The Pentagon's Rumsfeld warns it is "only a matter of time" before Iraq shoots down one of our planes enforcing the no-flight zone protecting Iraq's Kurds from genocide.
State's Powell counsels relaxing U.N. pressure on Iraq by calling them "smart sanctions," hoping this will persuade Saddam to permit inspections. Bush glumly agrees.
Dissolve to a scene in a Tikrit palace where Saddam lays out his plan to (a) amass billions through a U.N. oil-for-food scam and his secret oil pipeline to Syria, (b) increase contacts with Al Qaeda, (c) take leadership of the Arab world by developing W.M.D. or pretending to have them already, and (d) openly challenging Bush.
Back in D.C., at a critical go-no-go meeting in the Situation Room, Bush sides with Powell not to invade Iraq. Wolfowitz enters with news of a shoot-down of our "Northern Watch" aircraft by Iraq. Kofi Annan, on CNN, asks: What do we expect - the U.S. flies over sovereign Iraqi territory. Bush decides against his aides' audacious regime-change proposal, and chooses a restrained, Clintonian pinprick response with cruise missiles.
Having gloriously faced down the U.S. - and gaining greater financial and weaponry strength every day - Saddam becomes an iconic, heroic figure in the Arab and Muslim world. Through massive kickbacks and smuggling operations involving France, Russia and China, the murderous despot ensures U.N. protection from inspections. Free from fear of retaliation, Saddam offers safe haven in Iraq to bin Laden and followers seeking a center of operations.
Cut to Libya, where Qaddafi has purchased nuclear know-how and fissionable material from corrupt Pakistani scientists. The Libyan dictator shifts his fear of the U.S. to fear and envy of Iraq, and presses ahead to produce a nuclear bomb of his own. Intermediate-range missiles being shipped to him from North Korea are seized at sea by Israel.
That Zionist entity is faced by a Hamas-dominated P.L.O. now heavily financed by Saddam. In 2003, he doubles his payments to the families of suicide bombers, ties the violent intifada tightly to Baghdad-based Qaeda, and sees to it that a Palestinian of his choice is ready to succeed Arafat.
The terrified royal families of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait demand that the U.S. and European nations station troops in their countries to act as a tripwire against Saddam's longtime lust for their oil and from bin Laden's vengeance. Bush, having rejected reforms to make our forces more mobile, is forced to decline. Europe, furious at the U.S. for failure to fulfill the leadership responsibilities of a superpower, passes. The U.N. resolves it is seized with concern.
OPEC, with Iraq's shrewd acquiescence, retaliates by doubling oil prices, its price-gouging supported by Russia's oil cartel, which triggers Western-world recession. Egypt, seeking protection from Saddam, merges with nuclear-armed Libya, and both embrace Islamism.
This disheartening train of events left the station, in my sequel to Roth's satire, with the fictional Bush's humiliating decision not to invade Iraq. But that's no proper ending for an optimistic, reconstructionist author.
In early 2004, a Wilsonian Democrat bursts upon the political scene. He wins the Iowa caucuses on the slogan "Send Our Boys Abroad," conducts a campaign inspiring us to extend freedom throughout the world, and routs the G.O.P.'s equivocating wimp in the White House. As president-elect, he emulates F.D.R. in wartime by appointing Republicans Rumsfeld to State and Wolfowitz to Defense, overthrows Saddam, wins the terror war - and the Plot Against America, Part II, is foiled.