What are the odds of 20 hard drives failing at once?

[JimBowie1958]

No its not irrelevant. You said it wasnt stored on the PC. You now know after I corrected you.

Email apps do not normally store the email down to your HD unless you make it so, by changing the defaults or selecting it to be saved.

No matter much you try to twist this, the emails are required to be stored on the servers by law, not to your desktop. Whether they store it to their desktop is irrelevant to the point of what the law is, stupid shit.

No matter how much you divert I'm going to point out that had nothing to do with my point. You said email was not stored on a PC hard drive and it is. Thats my point.

Emails are not primarily stored on a desktop, and the law requires they be stored on the network servers and backed up.

You are a total stupid shit head.

 

[Asclepias]

Email apps do not normally store the email down to your HD unless you make it so, by changing the defaults or selecting it to be saved.

No matter much you try to twist this, the emails are required to be stored on the servers by law, not to your desktop. Whether they store it to their desktop is irrelevant to the point of what the law is, stupid shit.

No matter how much you divert I'm going to point out that had nothing to do with my point. You said email was not stored on a PC hard drive and it is. Thats my point.

Emails are not primarily stored on a desktop, and the law requires they be stored on the network servers and backed up.

You are a total stupid shit head.

I never said they were primarily stored on a desktop. I said you were wrong by claiming they were not stored on a desktop hard drive. Stop diverting. You are embarrassing yourself.

 

[Care4all]

You can call me the devil's advocate if you wish...my skin has gotten a lot thicker over the years...

plus I thoroughly ENJOY looking at and researching the "other side of the coin", being the so called Devil's advocate....it makes me more knowledgeable on topics or conspiracies that I wouldn't normally know.....YOU ALL should try it some time....it's also called putting yourself in the other person's shoes, like criminal profilers try to do as well.

Maybe I've read too many intricate "Who Done It Mystery" Books as well, which NEVER turns out to be who you thought it would be or never turns out how you originally surmised...?

Regardless:

This below is KEY in understanding WHY older emails for EACH and every IRS employee were archived on their own hard drives.

“Clearly, the overall system was not as modern as it should have been,” said Michael Hettinger, senior vice president at TechAmerica, an industry group.
The Obama administration launched its Cloud First Policy in 2011, encouraging agencies to migrate much of their information technology -- including email -- to the cloud. While many agencies have adopted cloud email systems, the tax regulator is not among them.
IRS uses Microsoft Outlook for email, with hundreds of millions of messages stored on servers at three data centers, Leonard Oursler, IRS’ national director for legislative action, said in a letter to the Senate finance committee.
The email servers are backed up daily onto tapes that until May 2013 were stored for six months before rewritten with new data. When investigators last year started asking about the agency giving extra scrutiny to conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status, officials began holding the daily backup tapes indefinitely, at an estimated cost of $200,000 a year, the letter said.
The average IRS employee’s email storage is limited to 500 megabytes, or approximately 6,000 emails. Before 2011, typical IRS accounts only held 1,800 emails. Employees whose inboxes approached the limit were notified to prioritize their emails, either by deleting them or storing them to their own hard drives. No other digital copies were preserved.
The agency said last week Lerner’s hard drive crashed in 2011, resulting in the loss of her archived emails.

IRS Emails Wouldn?t Have Vanished in the Cloud - Nextgov.com

10 to 1, as I have said before, there is no reason to believe that the archived and older emails that were unable to be retrieved, have anything in them that backs up this contention that the White House was in collusion with Lerner to squash for mere political reasons, conservative groups to help Obama win the election.

The irs was able to retrieve over 24,000 of those "MISSING EMAILS" AND nothing at all was in any of those missing emails that were found, along with nothing in ALL of the emails that were still active on her computer when it crashed, which she was still able to get to through them being on the server.

And in addition to this, the Investigative committees asked the white house and administration to turn over all emails they had with Lerner in those 3 years, and there were only 3 emails from Lerner with the white house, and 1 or 2 of those were office spam....and none of the 3 contained any kind of incriminating evidence that supports the contention that this scrutiny was done by the irs for purely political reasons to elect the president, which is the claim of the Right wing congress critters. If none were in the white house records/servers which are NOT MISSING, then why would there be any in Lerner's archived emails?

Besides, as I have also mentioned before, if she thought she was doing something criminal in her emails or something wrong in any way, don't you THINK that she would DELETE THEM and NOT ARCHIVE THEM? common sense is NOT prevailing on the right wing side of the aisle imo.

Was Lerner at fault for following the "Company Policy" on emails by archiving the oldest and non active emails on to her own hard drive? Each employee was notified when they were reaching the MAX COMPANY POLICY of 1800, had to delete some or transfer some to their Archives.


NO, OF COURSE NOT...

So, NONE of the emails were active emails that were originally lost (I repeat, of which 24,000 of them were recovered by getting them from the people who were recipients or cc'd on them)


None of the emails prior to Lerner's hard drive crash that were ACTIVE
were LOST as everyone implied...if any of these emails were still considered active emails then she retrieved them the second she got on the email system with her new computer...those could go back a year or two in to the time period of concern, if they were still active emails and not deleted or archived on to the hard drive if old and obsolete.

then you have the email correspondence between Learner and the tech team about retrieving her archived information on her fried hard drive....this was NOT a person trying to hide something, it was a person trying to retrieve something, and making many efforts to do such.

An email chain that the IRS provided to Congress shows Lerner trying to recover her data, and following up several times, saying there were some "irreplaceable" documents there that she needed:

• Lerner email to IRS official, 7/19/11: "I'm taking advantage of your offer to try and recapture my lost personal files. My computer skills are pretty basic, so nothing fancy — but there were some documents in the files that are irreplaceable. Whatever you can do to help, is greatly appreciated."
• Email from Customer Service Support, 7/20/11: "I checked with the technician and he still has your drive. He wanted to exhaust all avenues to recover the data before sending it to the 'hard drive cemetery.' Unfortunately, after receiving assistance from several highly skilled technicians including HP experts, he still cannot recover the data."
• Follow-up email from Customer Service Support, 8/05/11: "Unfortunately the news is not good. The sectors on the hard drive were bad which made your data unrecoverable. I am very sorry. Everyone involved tried their best."

Didn't the IRS back up its email?

It did — but only for six months. After that, the backup tapes were taped over "for cost-efficiency," the agency wrote. (They've since changed their policy.)

As mentioned, Lerner's computer crashed nearly two years before the scandal broke, so those backups would have been long gone by then.

What happened to the lost IRS emails? - Vox

All of this is NOT as suspicious as it seemed, especially not the way it has been reported and spun....

Maybe it is not Lerner, but someone else in the division that ordered this for the political purpose of merely harming a political foe in an election year? I dunno? Maybe Lerner by herself without any one else in collusion with her? I dunno? NEITHER are likely....and thus far, evidence collected, the 750,000 records turned over thus far by the IRS, supports that there was no collaboration or collusion with the White House During his election campaign.

And it also seems very odd to me that the IRS tax exempt divisions would have ''scheduled Employee classes and meetings for BOLO Lists'' and on how to use these BOLO LISTS with groups called out on them, if for a nanosecond, anyone, any one employee at all, thought they were illegal or doing something for purely political posturing reasons....it would not have been out in the open and there would not have been scheduled classes on how to use these lists...again in my opinion...



Some more pertinent info of what Lerner's lawyer said to issa
Darrell Issa, Lois Lerner lawyer escalate IRS conflict - Rachael Bade - POLITICO.com

Darrell Issa, Lois Lerner lawyer escalate IRS conflict - Rachael Bade - POLITICO.com

 

[JimBowie1958]

No matter how much you divert I'm going to point out that had nothing to do with my point. You said email was not stored on a PC hard drive and it is. Thats my point.

Emails are not primarily stored on a desktop, and the law requires they be stored on the network servers and backed up.

You are a total stupid shit head.

I never said they were primarily stored on a desktop. I said you were wrong by claiming they were not stored on a desktop hard drive. Stop diverting. You are embarrassing yourself.

lol, you are such an idiot.

 

[JimBowie1958]

IRS uses Microsoft Outlook for email, with hundreds of millions of messages stored on servers at three data centers, Leonard Oursler, IRS’ national director for legislative action, said in a letter to the Senate finance committee.
The email servers are backed up daily onto tapes that until May 2013 were stored for six months before rewritten with new data. When investigators last year started asking about the agency giving extra scrutiny to conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status, officials began holding the daily backup tapes indefinitely, at an estimated cost of $200,000 a year, the letter said.

lol

 

[Peach]

If they came from the same unit, possible, still very unlikely. Thus, the need for hard copies.

 

[Asclepias]

Emails are not primarily stored on a desktop, and the law requires they be stored on the network servers and backed up.

You are a total stupid shit head.

I never said they were primarily stored on a desktop. I said you were wrong by claiming they were not stored on a desktop hard drive. Stop diverting. You are embarrassing yourself.

lol, you are such an idiot.

Couldnt figure out another way to divert could you?

Name calling is a sure sign you you cant explain why you were simply wrong.

 

[itfitzme]

Say we have 20 people all involved in the same fantasy football league. Each has data backed up for the entire league making, they think, the data guaranteed to be safe from loss.

But one Monday as they go to look at their standings after a particularly interesting Sunday, and all of them find that their hard drives have crashed and they cant access any of the data.

One of the players, Steve is a well known hacker who could have pulled some shenanigans, perhaps, but he insists that he did nothing to cause the failure as his team was victorious. Another player, Doug, had a disastrous weekend, but he does not have the skill to cause anything like this. Ted says that Doug hired Steve to crash the hard drives. Bob says that sometimes shit happens, maybe all twenty crashed simultaneously.

Who is most likely right?

Actually, the odds are pretty good, especially if they were all purchased at the same time.

Hard drive failure isn't uncommon.

Then, of course, your example is an anechdotal situation. Conclusions can't be drawn from anechdotal situations. If any lesson should be drawn from statistics and probability, it is that shit happens all the time. Rare doen't mean never. There is a reason that Murphy's law is so well known, why it rings so true.

If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong, at the worst possible moment.

 

[mamooth]

So where does this "20 out of 20 hard drives failed together" conspiracy theory originate? I know the ODS kooks believe it as gospel, but they don't even seem to know the source. It's just a mantra they chant.

Best I can tell, the ODS kooks are taking the total number of drives that failed at that IRS branch in that year, and then applying that number to their weirdass story, the one saying those 20 hard drives belonged to the only 20 people being investigated. That is, it's a total fiction on their part.

 

[itfitzme]

Evem the wierd ass story doesn't demonstrate anything. Probability and statistics applies to large samples of an even larger population. The odds of any random grouping of twenty people out of a larger population is exactly the same, whether that group is from twenty different companies or from the same company, all other things being equal. Nothing can be infered from a single event.

In fact, when the addition of "the same company" is added, the odds favor the group with similar environment. This is just an ordinary quality engineering problem.

The first question is, "what are the lot numbers?"

They aren't just any random hard drives. They are likely to have been purchased from the same manufacturer, manufactured at the same time, shipped with the same shipping carrier, and installed by the same people, even person.

But, hey, there is an entire industry, a state, and a large popular vacation destination that takes advantage ofvthe fact that people suck at grasping statistics and probability.

 

[Peach]

Evem the wierd ass story doesn't demonstrate anything. Probability and statistics applies to large samples of an even larger population. The odds of any random grouping of twenty people out of a larger population is exactly the same, whether that group is from twenty different companies or from the same company, all other things being equal. Nothing can be infered from a single event.

In fact, when the addition of "the same company" is added, the odds favor the group with similar environment. This is just an ordinary quality engineering problem.

The first question is, "what are the lot numbers?"

They aren't just any random hard drives. They are likely to have been purchased from the same manufacturer, manufactured at the same time, shipped with the same shipping carrier, and installed by the same people, even person.

But, hey, there is an entire industry, a state, and a large popular vacation destination that takes advantage ofvthe fact that people suck at grasping statistics and probability.

I stand corrected, thank you explaing this fact so well.

 

[JimBowie1958]

If they came from the same unit, possible, still very unlikely. Thus, the need for hard copies.

Plus federal law states they have to keep permanent records of emails.

Simple fact, and the IRS is violating the law by not doing so.

But if people are willing to believe that 20 HDs are all going to fail at the same time, they will believe anything.

 

[yidnar]

I would guess 50-50 or less

typical .

 

[JimBowie1958]

Say we have 20 people all involved in the same fantasy football league. Each has data backed up for the entire league making, they think, the data guaranteed to be safe from loss.

But one Monday as they go to look at their standings after a particularly interesting Sunday, and all of them find that their hard drives have crashed and they cant access any of the data.

One of the players, Steve is a well known hacker who could have pulled some shenanigans, perhaps, but he insists that he did nothing to cause the failure as his team was victorious. Another player, Doug, had a disastrous weekend, but he does not have the skill to cause anything like this. Ted says that Doug hired Steve to crash the hard drives. Bob says that sometimes shit happens, maybe all twenty crashed simultaneously.

Who is most likely right?

Actually, the odds are pretty good, especially if they were all purchased at the same time.

Hard drive failure isn't uncommon.

20 different hard drives failing and all of them are related to the same inquiry is extremely uncommon, except for Dimbocraps, I guess.

And there is no reason to believe the HDs were bought at the same time, that is just more gullible Dimbocrap lies to cover up a stonewalling of this investigation.

And that is because at heart, Dimbocraps are totally OK with the IRS being used to target Tea Party groups, hell most of them think it is funny in fact.

Then, of course, your example is an anechdotal situation. Conclusions can't be drawn from anechdotal situations.

Sure they can, as they can be used to illustrate certain things, like the total stupidity of believing this administrations lies. The emails were primarily stored on the servers, not the HDs, the law requires them to be kept longer and almost 20 other HDs mysteriously crashed at about the same time all related to the investigation. And the crashed and shredded HDs were never mentioned until the courts said they had to hand them over.

All proving that the leaders of the Dimbocrapic party know that their members are perhaps among the most partisan, stupid, dishonest and/or gullible people in the ******* world.

If any lesson should be drawn from statistics and probability, it is that shit happens all the time. Rare doen't mean never. There is a reason that Murphy's law is so well known, why it rings so true. If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong, at the worst possible moment.

Not at those odds, they don't, jack ass. A late worker explaining to his boss that he was late because a meteor hit his car just as giant Kodiac ate his ID card and the odds of that actually happening are better than this 20 HD failure bullshit.

roflmao

 

[JimBowie1958]

Evem the wierd ass story doesn't demonstrate anything. Probability and statistics applies to large samples of an even larger population. The odds of any random grouping of twenty people out of a larger population is exactly the same, whether that group is from twenty different companies or from the same company, all other things being equal. Nothing can be infered from a single event.

In fact, when the addition of "the same company" is added, the odds favor the group with similar environment. This is just an ordinary quality engineering problem.

The first question is, "what are the lot numbers?"

They aren't just any random hard drives. They are likely to have been purchased from the same manufacturer, manufactured at the same time, shipped with the same shipping carrier, and installed by the same people, even person.

But, hey, there is an entire industry, a state, and a large popular vacation destination that takes advantage ofvthe fact that people suck at grasping statistics and probability.

lol, yeah, people like you, idjit.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Evem the wierd ass story doesn't demonstrate anything. Probability and statistics applies to large samples of an even larger population. The odds of any random grouping of twenty people out of a larger population is exactly the same, whether that group is from twenty different companies or from the same company, all other things being equal. Nothing can be infered from a single event.

In fact, when the addition of "the same company" is added, the odds favor the group with similar environment. This is just an ordinary quality engineering problem.

The first question is, "what are the lot numbers?"

They aren't just any random hard drives. They are likely to have been purchased from the same manufacturer, manufactured at the same time, shipped with the same shipping carrier, and installed by the same people, even person.

But, hey, there is an entire industry, a state, and a large popular vacation destination that takes advantage ofvthe fact that people suck at grasping statistics and probability.

I stand corrected, thank you explaing this fact so well.

You are corrected? The dude pulled shit out of his ass with not one link to back up any of his conjecture.

Man, you really do want to drink that Dimbocrap Kool AID don't you, Peach?

 

[JimBowie1958]

I would guess 50-50 or less

typical .

typically stupid and ignorant. The Dimbocrap target audience these days it seems.

 

[itfitzme]

If they came from the same unit, possible, still very unlikely. Thus, the need for hard copies.

Plus federal law states they have to keep permanent records of emails.

Simple fact, and the IRS is violating the law by not doing so.

But if people are willing to believe that 20 HDs are all going to fail at the same time, they will believe anything.

The odds of winning the jackpot with a $1 ticket are 1-in-13,983,816.

And, amazingly, some one manages to pick five winning numbers.

The likelihood that you can figure out what the actual odds are for 20 hard drive failures, even lower.

The odds that you will figure out why your question is irrelevant, even lower stll.

 

[mamooth]

Jim, you're still chickening out of backing up your lunacy. As expected. Guts and honesty are rarely found in ODSers. But maybe you're not as spineless as you look, and can give us some straight answers for the first time.

Where did you get your nutty story?

What exactly is your nutty story? Explain it to us, in your own words. And be sure your sources can back it up.

None of the ODSers seem to be able to agree on the story. They can't even say what it is. They just keep chanting "20 hard drives" like a mantra. I'm trying to pin Jim down concerning precisely what he's claiming. That's important to do upfront, given the way ODSers go into a weasel routine whenever they get caught parroting some crazy lie that their cult fed them.

 

[itfitzme]

Evem the wierd ass story doesn't demonstrate anything. Probability and statistics applies to large samples of an even larger population. The odds of any random grouping of twenty people out of a larger population is exactly the same, whether that group is from twenty different companies or from the same company, all other things being equal. Nothing can be infered from a single event.

In fact, when the addition of "the same company" is added, the odds favor the group with similar environment. This is just an ordinary quality engineering problem.

The first question is, "what are the lot numbers?"

They aren't just any random hard drives. They are likely to have been purchased from the same manufacturer, manufactured at the same time, shipped with the same shipping carrier, and installed by the same people, even person.

But, hey, there is an entire industry, a state, and a large popular vacation destination that takes advantage ofvthe fact that people suck at grasping statistics and probability.

I stand corrected, thank you explaing this fact so well.

You are corrected? The dude pulled shit out of his ass with not one link to back up any of his conjecture.

Man, you really do want to drink that Dimbocrap Kool AID don't you, Peach?

Why would I need to provide a link for something that was a part of my engineering curriculum and I've done for a living? And something that is obvious once you've thought of it?

I could post links to every manner of web sites on statistics and probability, but how's that gonna help you? You wouldn't get passed the first chapter.

But if it makes you feel better, you've got every right to believe whatevr your little heart desire. You must be in bliss.