What are the odds of 20 hard drives failing at once?

[JimBowie1958]

The odds are 100% when one factors in the fact that this was part of a cover up attempt.

Why do a cover up on a fantasy football league?

And why do people keep bringing up emails? Emails aren't stored on desk top hard drives, they are stored on the network servers.

 

[JimBowie1958]

it's called a bad batch..my guess is the hard drive were about the same age and from the same manufacturer...

If each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so I guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged HD's.

 

[JimBowie1958]

that's not how it works.

And green's a better color than blue.

Can say things like that all we like, but if we don't then explain why we should remain silent.

well what you've done is multiply the mean times before failure and believed that it would give you a probability, or even a time until failure of 20 independently, simultaneously operating hard drives.

it just doesn't work like that.

You still didn't explain how it WOULD work.

How about you show how expert you are and provide the solution to the problem then?

To my reckoning, if the HND had a mean time between failure of 5 years, that means that for every HD that failed in 5 years there is one that did not on average, so a 1:2 chance of failure in 5 years. So a drive would have 1:10 of failing in one year.

One in 10^20th is a very unlikely thing to happen.

 

[WheelieAddict]

Depends on the drives some crash much more than others. Just an observation, not taking sides in this shit show.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Depends on the drives some crash much more than others. Just an observation, not taking sides in this shit show.

Take the absolute worst HD made by the cheapest HD manufacturer in the world.

OK, at what likelihood do they crash in a year?

That that 1 in X to the 20th power and you have your answer.

No matter how bad, if these people sell HDs that last a single year on average, the odds of them crashing all in the same year are 1 in 2^20th power.

A very unlikely possibility.

And you would believe such a claim?

Seriously?

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Ever more interested in being right than popular I looked it up. Wha dya know, I was right.

"I run a data center. Disk drives that are left running continuously last between two and three years. Three years is about 36 months.

The odds of a disk failing in any given month are roughly one in 36. The odds of two different drives failing in the same month are roughly one in 36 squared, or 1 in about 1,300. The odds of three drives failing in the same month is 36 cubed or 1 in 46,656. The odds of seven different drives failing in the same month is 37 to the 7th power = 1 in 78,664,164,096. "

I.E. take the expected time a hd will last, above is using months instead of MTBF, but the forumla will be the same. Months or MTBF times months or MTBF but 20 times in all.

36 x 36 x 36...

MTBF x MTBF x MTBF...

Best hd's have MTBF of 1 million hours which as I worked out previously is about 114 years. So:

114 x 114 x 114...

The answer quickly exceeds the age of the universe.

1.453397305769319001510268540172e+78 Years will elapse in-between events where 20 harddrives fail all at the same time.

Worth noting numbers with 78 zeroes is round about the total number of atoms in the entire universe.

 

[JoeB131]

Pretty good if a virus had been spread around the office and got past the firewalls.

"Oooh, look at the video of the cute kitty!"

 

[WheelieAddict]

Depends on the drives some crash much more than others. Just an observation, not taking sides in this shit show.

Take the absolute worst HD made by the cheapest HD manufacturer in the world.

OK, at what likelihood do they crash in a year?

That that 1 in X to the 20th power and you have your answer.

No matter how bad, if these people sell HDs that last a single year on average, the odds of them crashing all in the same year are 1 in 2^20th power.

A very unlikely possibility.

And you would believe such a claim?

Seriously?

Like I said, not taking sides here. I had three bad drives in a row from the same manufacturer before. I'm not going to research the failure rates of every hard drive produced to try and do the math. You do have a very good point, the success rate should be higher than failure, and that reduces the odds of multiple failures in one location with the same drives. Even with different drives the odds are against multiple failures.

 

[Asclepias]

it's called a bad batch..my guess is the hard drive were about the same age and from the same manufacturer...

If each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so I guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged HD's.

Yes there is. I know a guy that worked for IBM that had HDD's from the same batch fail all over the nation. All told about 60 HDDs crashed at roughly the same time.The company paid for it dearly. There was no news coverage. No lawsuits. It can and does happen.

 

[Asclepias]

The odds are 100% when one factors in the fact that this was part of a cover up attempt.

Why do a cover up on a fantasy football league?

And why do people keep bringing up emails? Emails aren't stored on desk top hard drives, they are stored on the network servers.

Thats not completely true. If your client has pulled down your email there is a copy on your hard drive. That's why you can read it without being connected to the network.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

it's called a bad batch..my guess is the hard drive were about the same age and from the same manufacturer...

It's also called a post hoc fallacy:

“The hard drives failed therefore there must be a 'cover up.'”

 

[JimBowie1958]

it's called a bad batch..my guess is the hard drive were about the same age and from the same manufacturer...

If each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so I guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged HD's.

Yes there is. I know a guy that worked for IBM that had HDD's from the same batch fail all over the nation. All told about 60 HDDs crashed at roughly the same time.The company paid for it dearly. There was no news coverage. No lawsuits. It can and does happen.

Bullshit.

The math says you are talking out of your ass.

 

[JimBowie1958]

it's called a bad batch..my guess is the hard drive were about the same age and from the same manufacturer...

It's also called a post hoc fallacy:

“The hard drives failed therefore there must be a 'cover up.'”

No one is saying 'the hard drives failed therefore it must be a cover up', dumbass.

lol, you can read the scenario and that is all you can grok from the problem?

You define the word 'cretin'.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The odds are 100% when one factors in the fact that this was part of a cover up attempt.

Why do a cover up on a fantasy football league?

And why do people keep bringing up emails? Emails aren't stored on desk top hard drives, they are stored on the network servers.

Thats not completely true. If your client has pulled down your email there is a copy on your hard drive. That's why you can read it without being connected to the network.

That does not delete the copy on the server, chump. The primary storage required BY LAW is still on the network, not your desktop HD.

lol.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Pretty good if a virus had been spread around the office and got past the firewalls.

"Oooh, look at the video of the cute kitty!"

FAIL

Viruses don't crash HDs.

Possible Virus Causing Hard Drive Failure? - Hard Drives - Windows XP

 

[Moonglow]

What are the odds of 20 hard drives failing at once?

Depends how strong of an electromagnet is used..

 

[Asclepias]

If each drive had one chance in 100 in 1 year of failing, which is pretty god awful for a hard drive, that would mean that having all 20 crash simultaneously in the same year would be 1 in 100^20th, or 10 followed by 199 zeroes.

Do you have the slightest clue how unlikely that is? But no, you atheists have been conditioned to accept astronomically unlikely events as fact, so I guess it isn't entirely your fault that you swallow so much catastrophic bullshit.

Are there any other reports of such a catastrophic loss from other buyers from this manufacturer who is obviously out of business now from millions of lawsuits?

No, because in my scenario's world such manufacturers do not stay in business for more than a couple of months if they are deliberately selling sabotaged HD's.

Yes there is. I know a guy that worked for IBM that had HDD's from the same batch fail all over the nation. All told about 60 HDDs crashed at roughly the same time.The company paid for it dearly. There was no news coverage. No lawsuits. It can and does happen.

Bullshit.

The math says you are talking out of your ass.

Denial is not helping your case.

Math doesnt keep hdds from failing. Faulty manufacturing doesn't either.

 

[Asclepias]

Why do a cover up on a fantasy football league?

And why do people keep bringing up emails? Emails aren't stored on desk top hard drives, they are stored on the network servers.

Thats not completely true. If your client has pulled down your email there is a copy on your hard drive. That's why you can read it without being connected to the network.

That does not delete the copy on the server, chump. The primary storage required BY LAW is still on the network, not your desktop HD.

lol.

Where did I state it deleted the copy on the server chump? I just corrected your erroneous statement saying emails are not stored on the hard drive of the PC. You must not know much about this stuff.

 

[Sallow]

Harddrives have ratings for expected loss of data integrity measured as Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF.) Modern harddrives have MTBFs in the millions of hours of continuous power on. So the odds of 20 harddrives all failing at the same time is:

MTBF x MTBf x MTBF... times 17 more. In other words, as with top tier hd comanies like Western Digital with MTBFs of 1 million hours, the chances of 20 drives faling at the same time is once per life age of the Earth. Or there abouts.

Being a nerd I had to work this out. A million hours is over 114 years. So 114 x 114...is oh I was way off. Just to the 10th hd the number was older than the universe already so...

Another expert who's probably never set foot inside a data center or a NOC.

 

[Sallow]

What are the odds of 20 hard drives failing at once?

Depends how strong of an electromagnet is used..

Or a power surge.

Or a power outage.