We overreacted

[22lcidw]

I looked up the number of deaths from the flu in New York. I looked at the data from the cdc from 2014 to 2018. On average, there were about 4,700 deaths per year in New York from the flu.

New York had about 4,700 deaths from covid-19 in the last week.

I think it's ridiculous to compare covid-19 to the flu.

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

How about other states? NY is an outlier.

I think most of the North East would be similar. They're getting hit the hardest by this thing and they're located where it's more densely populated. Obviously not all states are getting impacted to the same level though.

Let me look up Louisiana:

Louisiana has averaged about 787 deaths per year from the flu. They've had approximately the same number of deaths from covid-19 in the last 13 days.

The point is: this isn't the flu. Show me the last time the flu wiped out 4,700 New Yorkers in a week. That's how devastating this can be without proper measures.

That there was a horrid, local outbreak in NYC does not mean Nebraska had to shut down

Maybe, maybe not. That's not up to me.

New York state has a population density 17 times the density of Nebraska. New York City is far more dense than that. Obviously it's going to be more dangerous in the more densely populated cities.

While the amount of risk that people are willing to deal with is not up to me, my point is that this thing is FAR more dangerous than the flu.

So here is how we know this thing was a huge bungle and your party will pay.

Just a few days ago you were screeching at everyone to stay inside, virus this, virus that

Look at the swift backpedaling here.

What party? People keep trying to make this a partisan fight but you have governors on both sides holding the line on reopening so what are you screeching about?

This isn’t a partisan issue ecxceot when peop,e like you try to make it one.

Strange; they aren’t giving us a minute by minute update on Alex Jones’s Doings...

this could be why

View attachment 325253

That is so irresponsible!

For every Alex Jones, Progs have a hundred of them. Or even more.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

At the current pace of around 35,000 deaths in two months, we'll be at 210,000 after the first year.
Also, we have no vaccine for this monster and it's another year off - At a minimum.
Truly wish y'all would stop comparing this to the dang flu. Sheesh!

And most of those will be New Yorkers, and New Englanders.

The west is laughing at you.

 

[linux07]

When you don't have a plan, your only option left is to overreact

 

[candycorn]

I looked up the number of deaths from the flu in New York. I looked at the data from the cdc from 2014 to 2018. On average, there were about 4,700 deaths per year in New York from the flu.

New York had about 4,700 deaths from covid-19 in the last week.

I think it's ridiculous to compare covid-19 to the flu.

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

How about other states? NY is an outlier.

I think most of the North East would be similar. They're getting hit the hardest by this thing and they're located where it's more densely populated. Obviously not all states are getting impacted to the same level though.

Let me look up Louisiana:

Louisiana has averaged about 787 deaths per year from the flu. They've had approximately the same number of deaths from covid-19 in the last 13 days.

The point is: this isn't the flu. Show me the last time the flu wiped out 4,700 New Yorkers in a week. That's how devastating this can be without proper measures.

That there was a horrid, local outbreak in NYC does not mean Nebraska had to shut down

Maybe, maybe not. That's not up to me.

New York state has a population density 17 times the density of Nebraska. New York City is far more dense than that. Obviously it's going to be more dangerous in the more densely populated cities.

While the amount of risk that people are willing to deal with is not up to me, my point is that this thing is FAR more dangerous than the flu.

So here is how we know this thing was a huge bungle and your party will pay.

Just a few days ago you were screeching at everyone to stay inside, virus this, virus that

Look at the swift backpedaling here.

What party? People keep trying to make this a partisan fight but you have governors on both sides holding the line on reopening so what are you screeching about?

This isn’t a partisan issue ecxceot when peop,e like you try to make it one.

Strange; they aren’t giving us a minute by minute update on Alex Jones’s Doings...

this could be why

View attachment 325253

That is so irresponsible!

For every Alex Jones, Progs have a hundred of them. Or even more.

That the protest was taking place in Texas and not some blue state was the point.

 

[DrLove]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Fantastic post, chock full of common sense. Thanks, Azog.

Thank you, sir.

You're QUITE welcome. You ARE one of the smartest posters on these threads. Your posts are always intelligent and insightful. It somewhat makes up for the usual drek (Some of MY posts included.) we see on here. It's always nice to see your intelligent posts.

You should probably study Azog's posting style

 

[DrLove]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

Testing is NOT irrelevant according to 99% of our doctors and scientists.

 

[DrLove]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

You clearly aren't paying attention

 

[DrLove]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Anyone who believes these idiotic Trump backed protests are "grassroots" also believe that the Tea Party was grassroots and not funded and backed by the Koch Brothers and other RW loons groups. These people aren't very smart.

 

[Eric Arthur Blair]

You clearly aren't paying attention

If we decided everything according to the wizards that run public opinion polls and their undeclared
biases President Hillary Clinton would be dealing with the Corona virus pandemic right now (undoubtedly very poorly).

Leftists love public opinion polls because they run the services that provide the polls and they always
get the opinion they are looking for.

Keeping 95% of the country in a cage and ruining their lives to a great degree to serve a very tiny percentage
of the population with underlying medical problems that makes them vulnerable to all sorts of health issues
doesn't make any sense at all.

 

[candycorn]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

Testing is NOT irrelevant according to 99% of our doctors and scientists.

The more tests, the more positives
The more positives, the worse the blob looks.
That is the reason for the astoundingly dumb “irrelevant” statement.

 

[22lcidw]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Anyone who believes these idiotic Trump backed protests are "grassroots" also believe that the Tea Party was grassroots and not funded and backed by the Koch Brothers and other RW loons groups. These people aren't very smart.

The Tea Party had a lot of people who were interested in it. It was infiltrated and destroyed by the Progs and the elites of both parties. The media/entertainers crucified people running for office in that party. Power families and conglomerates belittled and destroyed them also.

 

[Eric Arthur Blair]

Anyone who believes these idiotic Trump backed protests are "grassroots" also believe that the Tea Party was grassroots and not funded and backed by the Koch Brothers and other RW loons groups. These people aren't very smart.

Just like the kiddie propelled anti gun and global warming protests that you rejected because these
movements were obviously orchestrated and planned by big behind the scenes interests....right?

 

[DrLove]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Anyone who believes these idiotic Trump backed protests are "grassroots" also believe that the Tea Party was grassroots and not funded and backed by the Koch Brothers and other RW loons groups. These people aren't very smart.

The Tea Party had a lot of people who were interested in it. It was infiltrated and destroyed by the Progs and the elites of both parties. The media/entertainers crucified people running for office in that party. Power families and conglomerates belittled and destroyed them also.

Meh - The Teabaggers went away when that Black, Mooslim, Marxist Kenyan feller went away. It wasn't REALLY about spending or taxes.

 

[Eric Arthur Blair]

Meh - The Teabaggers went away when that Black, Mooslim, Marxist Kenyan feller went away. It wasn't REALLY about spending or taxes.

When Obama went away the source of the FDR style governance that King Barry favored went away too.

 

[WEATHER53]

When in doubt the worst possible scenario may be the reaction that pleases the Health Addicts and health experts but it’s for shit for the portion of the country that still chooses to exercise freedom, fact and thinking. Let’s scare America to death, it almost worked totally but we are a free and outgoing people who need to step back into the sunshine. Quake and cower in your own damn home but lay off the rest of us!

 

[WEATHER53]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Anyone who believes these idiotic Trump backed protests are "grassroots" also believe that the Tea Party was grassroots and not funded and backed by the Koch Brothers and other RW loons groups. These people aren't very smart.

The Tea Party had a lot of people who were interested in it. It was infiltrated and destroyed by the Progs and the elites of both parties. The media/entertainers crucified people running for office in that party. Power families and conglomerates belittled and destroyed them also.

Meh - The Teabaggers went away when that Black, Mooslim, Marxist Kenyan feller went away. It wasn't REALLY about spending or taxes.

Quite a garish collection you enjoyed assembling

 

[Eric Arthur Blair]

Quite a garish collection you enjoyed assembling

Right off his living room wall.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The deaths are low due to social distancing.

See how low the deaths are? Proof that we overreacted.

So mind numbingly stupid.

 

[2aguy]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

See.....you just don't get it.....the lockdown was never about containing the Chinese virus......it was meant to destroy the Trump economy before the election....that is why you had a shutdown of the economy when the fake model numbers were 1-2 million dead Americans..........and then, after the economy was crushed, they changed the number to about 60,000.........long before social distancing had an effect.....

This was all about using the new virus to defeat Trump....as a side benefit they also want to use it to push and pass their left wing power grab.....

 

[2aguy]

The deaths are low due to social distancing.

See how low the deaths are? Proof that we overreacted.

So mind numbingly stupid.

No, moron, social distancing doesn't account for the change in number.....

About those models

The value of the Wuhan virus data supplied by the public health authorities appears to be variable and declining. What is to be said about the models that have produced the related panic and lockdowns? Michael Fumento provides an assessment in the Issues & Insights column 'After Repeated...

www.powerlineblog.com

Before turning to the present crisis Fumento looks back at crises past for historical perspective. Here is the heart of his column:

In the current crisis the most alarming model, nay probably the most influential in the implementation of the draconian quarantines worldwide, projected a maximum of 2.2 million American deaths and 550,000 United Kingdom deaths unless there were severe restrictions for 18 months or until a vaccine was developed. The primary author: Neil Ferguson. Right, Mad Cow/Avian Flu Fergie.

Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, Ferguson said a better number for the U.K. would be only 20,000.

The equivalent would be fewer than 80,000 American deaths. Technically, that U.K. number was buried in a table in the report under what might be called “a fantastic case scenario.”

But could that reduction possibly reflect a mere nine days of restrictions? No.
Soon all the numbers were tumbling.

Yet as late as March 31, the New York Times declared: “White House Projects Grim Toll from Virus” citing White House Coronavirus Task Force head Deborah Birx and director of the National Institutes of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci, who in turn cited a model showing deaths up to 240,000. Still awful, but Birx explicitly backed off the Ferguson projection for which she had previously been the Grey Lady’s pompom girl.

Then suddenly Fauci announced a flat figure of “more like 60,000,” the same number the CDC says died of flu two years ago. Probably not coincidentally, until quite recently the agency said there were 80,000 flu victims that year, before lowering it to 61,000 – presumably because people were using that figure to compare to COVID-19 deaths. In any event, the 1968-1969 “Hong Kong flu” killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, or 165,000 adjusted to today’s population.