We overreacted

[AzogtheDefiler]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[bluzman61]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Fantastic post, chock full of common sense. Thanks, Azog.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Fantastic post, chock full of common sense. Thanks, Azog.

Thank you, sir.

 

[bluzman61]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Fantastic post, chock full of common sense. Thanks, Azog.

Thank you, sir.

You're QUITE welcome. You ARE one of the smartest posters on these threads. Your posts are always intelligent and insightful. It somewhat makes up for the usual drek (Some of MY posts included.) we see on here. It's always nice to see your intelligent posts.

 

[Rocko]

I disagree wholeheartedly disagree with the OP. Mitigation efforts slowed down the virus. The math is the proof. How bad would it have gotten without these efforts? Impossible to tell, but it’s still spreading fast with the mitigation efforts. 40 k dead in 6 weeks is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[gulfman]

New York sure over reacted.Only 14,000 deaths?Open backup and get those numbers way higher.

 

[Death-Ninja]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

 

[bluzman61]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

Fantastic post, D-N! Please post more often if you can.

 

[Coyote]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

There is on (at least) problem. Immunity. Imunity is not such a simple thing and varies by virus. I know just from the vaccines I have to give my dogs. Lepto typically lasts no more than a year, sometimes only 6 months. Others like distemper are still show acceptable levels in titres at three years.

With corona, we are finding a number of “cured” people suddenly showing positive again and we don’t yet know why. Are they getting reinfected? Does the virus lie dormant only to re-emerge? Unknown.

It is the unknown combined with the fact that has been shown to leave long lasting possibly permanent lung damage in some people that has me cautious.

I am 60...at the edge of the group considered higher risk. I live with my 83 yr old mother in law and my husband, who has severe chf and copd. Both very high risk. Reopening everything, in a Darwinian fashion would put us all at risk and I couldn’t afford to not go out and work(and my job involves daily contact with students).

I don’t have answers....just points to consider.

 

[Coyote]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

I think that trying to paint this in a partisan fashion is what stinks. Governors of both parties number among those pushing to reopen and holding the line at caution.

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

pffft...ya think?
The overreaction was intentional...it's a scam.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

Were you alive in 1918? News stories I have seen show schools, churches and businesses closed.

 

[sparky]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Y'know Azog , we've traditionally been at logger heads , but i'm with you on this one.

isolation may flatten the curve, but it just gets extended

basic epidemiology rules

~S~

 

[sparky]

I don’t have answers....just points to consider.

Nobody really does Coyote

consider this, C19 is mutating quicker than we have the ability to test for

a former emt -mate now ER nurse informs me her hospital's basically concluded all the past months 'negatives' may in fact be 'positives'

so C-19 may be C-20 , or C-99 1/2 this time next year

the only bright spot is something old brought back into the light of day, something that empirical medicine along with it's greedy pharamcabal made sure to label 'quackery'

~S~

 

[Death-Ninja]

[/QUOTE]
I think that trying to paint this in a partisan fashion is what stinks. Governors of both parties number among those pushing to reopen and holding the line at caution.
[/QUOTE]
I think I am far to smart to see this as anything other than to perfectly timed, and to perfectly targeted in derailing a US economy so white hot that a very desperate democratic party and its equally desperate deep state allies, could not hope to compete against it in open and fair election.... I think it accomplished exactly what the democratic party and its intelligence service cronies had been pining for, suddenly there is no economy to compete against at all!

I think many Americans are not nearly as cynical as they need to be, I think it patently obvious that powerful factions within the federal apparatus have been engaged in ongoing treason against the United States and its lawfully elected president for three and half years running.

I think that the NIH honcho Dr Anthony Fauci, who succeeded in getting the entire US economy mothballed, is the most untrustworthy fucking little weasel I have lain eyes upon since a certain National Security Council member of Ukrainian descent was endeavoring to get his lawful boss impeached, and chiding his superiors that he was not a Mr Vindemann but rather a Colonel Vindemann!

I think that not one of the major perpetrators in these running coup d' tats has been stopped, or punished, let alone slowed in their efforts at over-throwing the lawful government, and I think such evil people are capable of shocking the shit out of tens of millions of naive Americans who are in a state of near total denial and currently sheltering in place like cowering ground squirrels.....

Lastly, I think, and as a thinker, I have concluded that the series of extraordinarily well timed, and fortuitous turn of events these last 3.5 months, taken together with the known incidents of obvious treason emanating from within the National Security Council, the democratic party, and the nations powerful intelligence services, is to good to be true, and certainly far to sinister to be taken at face value.....

 

[Coyote]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

Were you alive in 1918? News stories I have seen show schools, churches and businesses closed.

and it had a profound economic impact...

 

[Olde Europe]

There is on (at least) problem. Immunity. Imunity is not such a simp,e thing and varies by virus. I know just from the vacci es I have to give my dogs. Lepto typically lasts no more than a year, sometimes only 6 months. Others like distemper are still show acceptable levels in tigers at three years.

With corona, we are finding a number of “cured” people suddenly showing positive again and we don’t yet know why. Are they getting reinfected? Does the virus lie dormant only to re-emerge? Unknown.

It is the unknown combined with the fact that has been shown to leave long lasting possibly permanent lung damage in some people that has me cautious.

I am 60...at the edge of the group considered higher risk. I live with my 83 yr old mother in law and my husband, who has severe chf and copd. Both very high risk. Reopening everything, in a Darwinian fashion would put us all at risk and I couldn’t afford to not go out and work(and my job involves daily contact with students).

I don’t have answers....just points to consider.

Quite. Most folks, the overwhelming majority, are voting with their feet in compliance with social distancing rules, staying home. They, apparently, aren't quite prepared to be sacrificed on the altar of business profits, even if it means some hardships.

Not to forget: Sweden has a death rate of about 15 per 100k population, despite a social distancing guidance. The U.S. has 10.

Whatever. The political calculation of the whole "We overreacted" screeching appears to be that the fall-out of the mishandled pandemic will fall right on Trump's sensitive toes, and they are desperate for anyone to blame, have been for weeks now. So, it has to be some "sissies" with no understanding of "herd immunity" and associated Darwinian notions, who are to blame for the shut-down (which isn't a shut-down by any reasonable measure anyway, but...) and its consequences. While Trump since forever knew it's a pandemic, you'll have to wait just a bit until he was against the shut-down before it even started. Can't take long for them to find a scapegoat, or three. A re-election in peril will certainly mobilize some creativity.

The most salient point, however is this pretzel of an argument: Social distancing, stay and home, and a partial shut down brought down the projected death toll from millions to tens of thousands. In light of these reduced numbers they are now arguing, "See the smallish numbers? Social distancing, stay and home, and a partial shut down weren't necessary." That's some world-class, outstanding flexibility in their mental gymnastics right there.

 

[Indeependent]

Like most of you, I shop in the same stores all the time and not on employee has called in ill (I always ask the managers how things are going, even when things are normal).
All of the employees have been wearing masks and gloves and maintaining distance.
Besides the very large local kosher mart, I shop at a very large Super Stop & Shop and a very large Western Beef.
The Western Beef managers started off smart in our area by stocking tons of kosher products.

 

[petro]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

 

[Indeependent]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

They'll calm down when their elderly start dying every day.