We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

[mamooth]

As usual, you are spinning and HOPING no one will notice.

As usual, you're the one spinning and deflecting. None of what your wrote addresses the fact that you took the top edge of the prediction and acted like it was was the center.

At the time of the FAR, not that long ago, there were only 4 emission scenarios presented. The one USED in that graph I put up was the "business as usual" scenario and is the PROPER one to use since neither the Montreal Protocols got fully implemented nor was deforestation reversed. So the next choice DOWN and ALL below that were not applicable..

No. The BAU scenario predicted 400 ppm in 2010. Scenario B was 380 ppm. The actual was 390 ppm.

So in 1990 -- that WAS the prediction and those results I showed were valid.

Nope. You should have taken something between scenario A and B, and you shouldn't have used the top edge of the envelope.

Furthermore -- you are projecting the "bad practice" of telling the media and politicians about the WORST CASE scenario. Which accounted for SCREAMING HEADLINES of doom and gloom and initiated this entire circus. I would NEVER take the Worst Case numbers from a turdish projection like that ---- but that's EXACTLY what the GW Parade Directors did to alarm the public and create the panic..

Repeating your unsupported assertions more stridently won't make them any more credible.

And your logic is still bad.

"A 1990 prediction was a little high, so all predictions are bad" doesn't make sense.

"The media hyped things, so the predictions are bad" wouldn't make sense either, even if it was true.

 

[miketx]

Tax this

We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

I thought I should clarify here. My post of the meteor striking the Earth was intended to convey my overall feeling of what politicians are using the global warming fraud for: An attempt to gain revenue by imposing fees, licensing and restrictions on certain things that may or may NOT contribute to hurting the planet.

 

[mamooth]

Still trying to rewrite history...climate science was predicting a coming ice age back in the 70's

How many published papers from 70's climate science would you like to see predicting cooling?

I already busted you for that particular fraud tactic the last time you tried the stunt.

Why is it?

You copied, from one of your fraud blogs, a list of 100 "papers" (which weren't all papers) that supposedly predicted cooling. You didn't look a single one of them yourself. I did look at the first 20 actual papers. 3 predicted warming, 14 made no prediction, and 3 predicted cooling.

In response to being busted for open fraud yet another time, you squealed insults and ran, refusing to explain why you tried to pass off an open fraud.

And now you're hoping I'd forgotten, and you're trying to pass off the same fraud again. Nope.

 

[miketx]

I thought I should clarify here. My post of the meteor striking the Earth was intended to convey my overall feeling of what politicians are using the global warming fraud for: An attempt to gain revenue by imposing fees, licensing and restrictions on certain things that may or may NOT contribute to hurting the planet.

 

[SSDD]

[
I already busted you for that particular fraud tactic the last time you tried the stunt.

Ramble on hairball...all you proved was that you are unable to read and comprehend.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1502-3885.1972.tb00145.x/abstract

A new glacial insolation regime, expected to last 8000 years, began just recently. Mean global temperatures may eventually drop about 1oC in the next hundred years. A refinement of the Milankovitch theory in terms of the lunar orbit and more data on solar periodicities are needed for reliable long range predictions.

Atmosphere-surface exchange of particulate and gaseous pollutants (1974). Proceedings of a symposium, Richland, Washington, September 4--6, 1974 (Conference) | SciTech Connect

The 1968 AAAS Symposium on Global Effects of Environmental Pollution initiated a flood of papers supporting monotonically if not exponentially increasing pollution. The particulate increases were usually cited as at least contributing to the post 1940 cooling and possibly capable of bringing on another ice age.

Since 1945 there has been a cooling trend and we are now nearly back down to the averages of the early 19th century. None of the calculations of which I am aware found that the man augmented CO2 could have contributed more than a small fraction of the warming up to 1940. Whatever the cause of the warming the post 1940 cooling appears to be primarily a return to normal

The Upward Trend in Airborne Particulates That Isn’t - Springer

In recent years there have appeared a rash of papers claiming an upward trend in airborne particulates, which is presumed to have already reversed the alleged CO2 induced heating of the atmosphere observed between the 1880’s and 1940’s and to pose the further threat of inducing another ice age. Allusions to the trend have become so common that many authors now cite it as an accepted reality requiring neither qualification nor attribution by reference.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1980)061<1356:PCCAAP>2.0.CO;2

Evidence has been presented and discussed to show a cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere since around 1940, amounting to over 0.5°C, due primarily to cooling at mid- and high latitudes. Some regions of the middle latitudes have actually warmed while others, such as the central and eastern United States, have experienced sharp cooling. A representative station for this latter region is Lafayette, Ind., which has recorded a drop of 2.2°C in its mean annual temperature from 1940 through 1978. The cooling trend for the Northern Hemisphere has been associated with an increase of both the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. … Observations and interpretation of sunspot activity have been used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (∼90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). Measurements at the Greenwich Observatory and the Kitt Peak National Observatory, as well as other supportive information and arguments, are presented to hypothesize a physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter. On the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle when the mean annual sunspot number exceeds 50 it is proposed that global cooling may be initiated due to the decreased insolation. This is also supported by umbral-to-penumbral ratios computed and interpreted by Hoyt (1979a).

http://www.pnas.org/content/67/2/898.short

Climate is variable. In historical times, many significant fluctuations in temperature and precipitation have been identified. In the period from 1880 to 1940, the mean temperature of the earth increased about 0.6°C; from 1940 to 1970, it decreased by 0.3-0.4°C. Locally, temperature changes as large as 3-4°C per decade have been recorded, especially in sub-polar regions. … The drop in the earth’s temperature since 1940 has been paralleled by a substantial increase in natural volcanism. The effect of such volcanic activity is probably greater than the effect of manmade pollutants.

http://archive.org/stream/understandingcli00unit/understandingcli00unit_djvu.txt

A striking feature of the instrumental record is the behavior of temperature worldwide. As shown by Mitchell (1970), the average surface air temperature in the northern hemisphere increased from the 1880’s until about 1940 and has been decreasing thereafter. Starr and Oort (1973) have reported that, during the period 1958-1963, the hemisphere’s (mass-weighted) mean temperature decreased by about 0.6 °C. In that period the polar and subtropical arid regions experienced the greatest cooling. The cause of this variation is not known, although clearly this trend cannot continue indefinitely. … The well-documented warming trend of global climate beginning in the 1880’s and continuing until the 1940’s is a continuation of the warming trend that terminated the Little Ice Age. Since the 1940’s, mean temperatures have declined and are now nearly halfway back to the 1880 levels.

There seems little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate, but there is no consensus with regard to either the magnitude or rapidity of the transition. The onset of this climatic decline could be several thousand years in the future,although there is a finite probability that a serious worldwide cooling could befall the earth within the next hundred years. … If the end of the interglacial is episodic in character, we are moving toward a rather sudden climatic change of unknown timing, although as each 100 years passes, we have perhaps a 5 percent greater chance of encountering its [the next glacial’s] onset.

http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1038/254014a0

A recent flurry of papers has provided further evidence for the belief that the Earth is cooling. There now seems to be little doubt that changes over the past few years are more than a minor statistical fluctuation.

https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf#page=5

Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world. ...… Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes. A drop of only one or two degrees Centigrade in the annual average temperature at higher latitudes can shorten the growing season so that some crops have to be abandoned. ...… The average growing season in England is already two weeks shorter than it was before 1950. Since the late 1950’s, Iceland’s hay crop yield has dropped about 25 percent, while pack ice in waters around Iceland and Greenland ports is becoming the hazard to navigation it was during the 17th and 18th centuries. ...… Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in India—indeed, through much of Asia, the world’s hungriest continent. ….... Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an “ice age.”

https://www2.meteo.uni-bonn.de/bibliothek/Flohn_Publikationen/K227-K255_1972-1977/K242a.pdf

Since about 1945 [to 1974], global cooling, on a scale of -0.01°C/yr [-0.3°C total], has reversed the warming trend of the first decades of our century. The bulk of these changes is probably not man-made, but of natural origin. … A large majority of the participants of the symposium concluded that the present warm epoch has reached its final phase, and that—disregarding possible man-made variations are comparable in scale with the effects–the natural end of this interglacial epoch is “undoubtedly near.”

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358947790014X

Complex glacier and tree-line fluctuations in the White River valley on the northern flank of the St. Elias and Wrangell Mountains in southern Alaska and Yukon Territory are recognized by detailed moraine maps and drift stratigraphy, and are dated by dendrochronology, lichenometry, 14C ages, and stratigraphic relations of drift to the eastern (1230 14C yr BP) and northern (1980 14C yr BP) lobes of the White River Ash. The results show two major intervals of expansion, one concurrent with the well-known and widespread Little Ice Age and the other dated between 2900 and 2100 14C yr BP, with a culmination about 2600 and 2800 14C yr BP. Here, the ages of Little Ice Age moraines suggest fluctuating glacier expansion between ad 1500 and the early 20th century. Much of the 20th century has experienced glacier recession, but probably it would be premature to declare the Little Ice Age over.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589472900488

The Holocene has already run a course of at least 10,000 yr. If it is like earlier interglacials, it will end soon, giving way to gradually developing cold conditions, which may not lead to glacial maxima for tens of thousands of years.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23926700_Climate_Stability_for_a_Sellers-Type_Model

ome attribute the assumed decreases in solar radiation to changes in the parameters of the motions of our planet (Milankovitch, 1969), others to airborne volcanic dust due to an increase in volcanic activity (Fuchs and Patterson, 1947), and so on. There has also been a concern about a possible climatic catastrophe [global cooling] being imminent because of the increase in the quantity of industrial pollutants in the atmosphere (Rasool and Schneider, 1971).

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.395.3637&rep=rep1&type=pdf

A comparison of climatic data for the eastern United States from the 1830’s and 1840’s with the currently valid climatic normals indicates a distinctly cooler and, in some areas, wetter climate in the first half of the last century. The recently appearing trend to cooler conditions noticed here and elsewhere could be indicative of a return to the climatic character of those earlier years.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358947290049X

Interglacials are defined in their classical stratotype areas of NW Europe, by sedimentary sequences characterized by the pollen of deciduous forests, pointing to climates at least as warm as those of the present time. The present cycle began ca. 10,000 YBP, with the start of the Holocene epoch, and the contemporary warm phase is seen as a typical interglacial stage. Such warm peaks characteristically last about 10,000 yr. Symptoms of the expected ensuing glaciation range from a global fall in temperature since mid Holocene, to tropical desiccation (growth of deserts) and high latitude retreat of tree lines.

https://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/gv219/classics.d/Budyko69.pdf

A rise in temperature that began at the end of the last century stopped in about 1940, and a fall in temperature started. The temperature in the northern hemisphere that increased in the warming period by about 0.6oC then decreased by the middle of the fifties by 0.2oC. A compartively short-period rise in temperature with smaller amplitude was also observed in the last years of the [19th] century. … Thus, it seems probable that the present changes in the Earth’s temperature are determined mainly by the atmospheric transparency variations that depend on the level of volcanic activity. … If with the decrease in radiation by 1% the mean temperature of the Earth drops by 5o, then with the decrease in radiation by 1.5% such a drop reaches 9o. Simultaneously with the above temperature drop the glaciation displacement 10-18o to the south takes place, i.e. the distances approximately corresponding to the expansion of the quarternary glaciations. … Thus, the present thermal regime and glaciations of the Earth prove to be characterized by high instability.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00963402.1970.11457871

[F]rom about 1890 to 1940 the general but irregular trend was toward growing strength of the global atmospheric circulation, northward displacement of the polar fronts in both the atmosphere and the ocean, northward displacement of ice boundaries in both the arctic and antarctic, weaker development of anticylones over the continents and more northward cyclone paths. These dynamic changes were reflected by a dramatic warming of the arctic and of the North Atlantic, and aridity in the south central parts of North America and Eurasia. Conversely, recent decades have exhibited opposite trends: weakening planetary circulation, southward shifts of ice boundaries and cyclone paths and sharp cooling and different rainfall patterns over continents. … Less than 20,000 years ago the Wisconsin ice sheet covered North America from the Atlantic to the Pacific and was up to two miles thick. Most of this vast ice mass melted during the only a few thousand years, raising the level of the world ocean by several hundred feet. This warming culminated in a “climatic optimum” from about 4000-2000 B.C., during which world temperatures were four to five degrees warmer than they are now and rainfall patterns were very different. … [T]he secondary “climatic optimum” around 1000 A.D. [was] a period characterized by a relatively dry, warm and storn-free North Atlantic which permitted the great viking colonization of Greenland and Newfoundland. The decline, from about 1300 A.D., with one partial recovery from about 1400 to 1550, continued to about 1750, culminating in the “little ice age” of 1650-1840. During the cooling period, North Atlantic ice boundaries advanced and the Viking colonies were extinguished. The warming since the cooling climax of the 1700s continued irregularly up to the 1940s, when renewed cooling seems to have set in.

And I could go on at length...denying the cooling claims by climate science of the 1970's will not make them go away.

 

[flacaltenn]

No. The BAU scenario predicted 400 ppm in 2010. Scenario B was 380 ppm. The actual was 390 ppm.

That EXACTLY what I just told you. The BusinessAU scenario was APPROPRIATELY used for those temperature predictions. And if you look back at my post -- I MYSELF, never hawked the Worst Case estimates. I simply pointed out the fact that all the Doom/Gloom news and political hyping that "high line" in headlines and speeches.

 

[mamooth]

Ramble on hairball...all you proved was that you are unable to read and comprehend.

In almost every case here, your fraud technique is to cherrypick a couple sentences from the body that describe past cooling, and then ignore the conclusions where they predict warming, or simply make no prediction.

Insolation and glacials

Kukla 1972, one of the few papers that actually predicted warming. Your fraud tally is 0 out of 1.

Atmosphere-surface exchange of particulate and gaseous pollutants (1974). Proceedings of a symposium, Richland, Washington, September 4--6, 1974 (Conference) | SciTech Connect

Not a paper, just a mention that a symposium exists. No predictions made. Fraud on your part to claim it's a paper predicting cooling. Your fraud tally is 1 out of 2.

The Upward Trend in Airborne Particulates That Isn’t - Springer

Ellsaesser, 1975. Made no future predictions. So, your second outright fraud. Your fraud tally is 2 out of 3.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1980)061<1356CCAAP>2.0.CO;2

Agee 1980. Specifically predicts warming in the future. Your fraud tally is 3 out of 4.

http://www.pnas.org/content/67/2/898.short

Benton 1970. Makes no future predictions. Your fraud tally is 4 out of 5.

Full text of "Understanding climatic change"

National Academy of Sciences discussion. Not a paper, and makes no future predictions. Your fraud tally is 5 out of 6.

http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1038/254014a0

Gribben 1975. Paywalled. Gribben was not a climate scientist, and was a conspiracy theorist who made up things like "The Jupiter Effect", so lumping him in with Climate Sceintists is fraud. Your tally is 6 out of 7.

https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf#page=5

NOAA magazine. Not a paper. Your fraud tally is 7 out of 8.

https://www2.meteo.uni-bonn.de/bibliothek/Flohn_Publikationen/K227-K255_1972-1977/K242a.pdf

Flohn 1974. Makes no cooling predictions. Your fraud tally is 8 out of 9.

Holocene glacial and tree-line variations in the White River Valley and Skolai Pass, Alaska and Yukon Territory - ScienceDirect

Denton 1977. Makes no cooling predictions. Your fraud tally is 9 out of 10.

Interglacial and postglacial climates: The pollen record - ScienceDirect

Wright 1972. Predicts only extremely long glacial cycles, so not a cooling prediction. Your fraud tally is 10 out of 11.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23926700_Climate_Stability_for_a_Sellers-Type_Model

Predicts cooling only if solar radiation drops 2%, so not a prediction of cooling. Your fraud tally is 11 out of 12.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.395.3637&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Whal 1968. Weakly predicts cooling. One of Bryson's crew, so one of the deniers. Your fraud tally is 12 out of 13.

Climatology of a glacial cycle - ScienceDirect

Fairbridge 1972. Predicts only very long glacial cycles, so not a prediction of cooling. Your fraud tally is 13 out of 14.

https://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/gv219/classics.d/Budyko69.pdf

Budkyo 1968. Predicts cooling, but things were very primitive in 1968. By 1972, Budkyo had reversed and predicted warming. Failing to mention that puts your fraud tally at 14 out of 15.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00963402.1970.11457871

Fletcher 1970. Not possible to figure out what it's predicting. Your snippet from the first page certainly wasn't a prediction of cooling.

So, your final fraud tally is 15 out of 16. Impressive. You must be upset you didn't get 100%. You'll have to work harder, you let something true slip through.

And I could go on at length...

Indeed. Your ability to engage in open and brazen fraud does seem to be limitless.

That was the point, right? At least it's the point everyone understands now.

 

[SSDD]

Indeed. Your ability to engage in open and brazen fraud does seem to be limitless.

That was the point, right? At least it's the point everyone understands now.

What everyone understands now is that you can't read...and will ignore anything that doesn't support your chanting cult...do you suppose the fear that the earth would cool because of particulates is somehow different from the fear that the earth would cool?

Bu you go ahead and believe whatever you want hairball...you are going to anyway because there is no getting past those cult blinders you wear...

That just makes your eventual crash when your cult finally fizzles all the more enjoyable to watch.

 

[mamooth]

What everyone understands now is that you can't read..

So, how long until you try the same fraud again? That is, how long until this recent butthurt I inflicted on you fades away? I give it about a year.

Now, just what was the topic you were trying to deflect from? That's right, 410 ppm.

Seems pretty straightforward. It took 4 years to go from 400 to 410. That's a hundred times faster than the rate of increase at the end of the last ice age. Yet there are actually people insane or dishonest enough to claim it's "natural". The mind boggles.

 

[SSDD]

sorry hairball...projecting your errors and flaws on me won't change a thing...the ice age scare of the 70's was real and the climate is doing nothing at present that even begins to approach the boundaries of natural variability. And rate of CO2 increase has nothing whatsoever to do with cilmate...aside from that, atmospheric CO2 has increased 110ppm since the beginning of the industrial revolution...we are responsible for 17ppm of that...anyone who believes that we are driving the climate with our 17ppm of CO2 is a top shelf idiot.

Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere

The anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2 concentration is found to be 4.3%, its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Crossed 410ppm again!

The weekly avg
Week beginning on April 16, 2017: 409.61 ppm

 

[ScienceRocks]

April 26: 412.63 ppm

 

[skookerasbil]

April 26: 412.63 ppm View attachment 123597

Show us where anybody is caring about this? In other words, the real world s0n!!

If you go on 5th Avenue in Manhattan this afternoon and raise this topic, before you even got the graph out of your pocket, 997 out of 1,000 people would be laying on the pavement snoring their asses off s0n!!

 

[polarbear]

View attachment 122579 We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

Brian Kahn By Brian Kahn


Published: April 20th, 2017

The world just passed another round-numbered climate milestone. Scientists predicted it would happen this year and lo and behold, it has.

On Tuesday, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded its first-ever carbon dioxide reading in excess of 410 parts per million (it was 410.28 ppm in case you want the full deal). Carbon dioxide hasn’t reached that height in millions of years. It’s a new atmosphere that humanity will have to contend with, one that’s trapping more heat and causing the climate to change at a quickening rate.
Click to enlarge.

In what’s become a spring tradition like Passover and Easter, carbon dioxide has set a record high each year since measurements began. It stood at 280 ppm when record keeping began at Mauna Loa in 1958. In 2013, it passed 400 ppm. Just four years later, the 400 ppm mark is no longer a novelty. It’s the norm.

We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

Well, it is just going to keep going up!

That was breached in the hole under the rock you live in long before 2017. That prolonged backradiation of the CO2 you exhaled in your doomsday survival hole must have fried your brains

 

[polarbear]

View attachment 122579 We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

Brian Kahn By Brian Kahn


Published: April 20th, 2017

The world just passed another round-numbered climate milestone. Scientists predicted it would happen this year and lo and behold, it has.

On Tuesday, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded its first-ever carbon dioxide reading in excess of 410 parts per million (it was 410.28 ppm in case you want the full deal). Carbon dioxide hasn’t reached that height in millions of years. It’s a new atmosphere that humanity will have to contend with, one that’s trapping more heat and causing the climate to change at a quickening rate.
Click to enlarge.

In what’s become a spring tradition like Passover and Easter, carbon dioxide has set a record high each year since measurements began. It stood at 280 ppm when record keeping began at Mauna Loa in 1958. In 2013, it passed 400 ppm. Just four years later, the 400 ppm mark is no longer a novelty. It’s the norm.

We Just Breached the 410 Parts Per Million Threshold

Well, it is just going to keep going up!

I fill up my tank at night and let it run all night.

I am hoping we break 425 by next year !

Ive been looking for a coal powered prius...any idea where I might find one?

Actually these charcoal powered cars worked pretty good.

They would still beat an EV any time. Range and refueling was not a problem

 

[Sun Devil 92]

April 26: 412.63 ppm View attachment 123597

AWSOME

 

[Crick]

That's spelled awesome, whiz brain. We passed 400 ppm in late September of last year. It's taken us 7 months to increase that level by 2.5%. That's 4.29% annual increase. With no change, that will put us at roughly 14,000 ppm by the year 2100. If we simply add 10 ppm every 7 months, levels by 2100 will be a measly 1,422 ppm. Amazing how these little numbers add up, eh?

Awesome.

 

[Crick]

We passed 400 ppm in late September of last year. It's taken us 7 months to increase that level by 2.5%. That's 4.29% annual increase. With no change, that will put us at roughly 14,000 ppm by the year 2100. If we simply add 10 ppm every 7 months, levels by 2100 will be a measly 1,422 ppm. Amazing how these little numbers add up, eh?

Awesome.

 

[skookerasbil]

This thread proves one thing..........there actually are some people who go to the zoo for the distinctive purpose of seeing the salamander exhibit.

Of course, those same people in here wont get the joke!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Last week co2 was really high!

Week beginning on April 23, 2017: 409.92 ppm

https://www.esrl.noa...nds/weekly.html