This page from President Eisenhower's Memoires,
Mandate for Change, page 372, shows that he believed Ho Chi Minh would have won any free election in Vietnam in 1954. This is certainly why the U.S. did not permit such an election, though the Geneva Convention of 1954 required it"
"I am convinced that the French could not win the war because the internal political situation in Vietnam, weak and confused, badly weakened their military position.
I have never talked or corresponded with a person knowledgeable in Indochinese affairs who did not agree that had elections been held as of the time of the fighting, possibly 80 per cent of the populations would have voted for the Communist Ho Chi Minh as their leader rather than Chief of State Bao Dai."
Source:
from
The Department of
State Bulletin, XXXI, No. 788 (August 2, 1954), p. 164.
Internet History Sourcebooks: Modern History
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The Final Declaration of The Geneva Conference: On Restoring Peace in Indochina, July 21, 1954
Final declaration, dated July 21, 1954, of the Geneva Conference on the problem of restoring peace in Indochina, in which the representatives of Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam, France, Laos, the People's Republic of China, the State of Viet-Nam, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom and the United States of America took part...
5. The Conference takes note of the clauses in the agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Viet-Nam to the effect that no military base at the disposition of a foreign state may be established in the regrouping zones of the two parties...
6. The Conference recognizes that the essential purpose of the agreement relating to Viet-Nam is to settle military questions with a view to ending hostilities and that the military demarcation line should not in any way be interpreted as constituting a political or territorial boundary...
7. In order to insure that sufficient progress in the restoration of peace has been made, and that all the necessary conditions obtain for free expression of the national will, general elections shall be held in July 1956, under the supervision of an international commission composed of representatives of the member states of the International Supervisory Commission referred to in the agreement on the cessation of hostilities. Consultations will be held on this subject between the competent representative authorities of the two zones from April 20, 1955, onwards...
Source:
from
The Department of
State Bulletin, XXXI, No. 788 (August 2, 1954), p. 164.
Internet History Sourcebooks: Modern History
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Vietnam was unimportant to America's economy and security. In Vietnam the United States was in the awkward position of claiming to be fighting for democracy in a country where Ho Chi Minh would have won a fair election under international supervision by a blow out.
The election was not held because Ngo Dinh Diem, who ousted Bao Dai, and ruled South Vietnam as a dictator, did not allow it to be held in South Vietnam, and the United States supported him.
Ho Chi Minh does not deserve to be completely exonerated, however. He could have still allowed the election to be held in North Vietnam. He could have invited journalists to come to North Vietnam from all over the world to verify that the election was an honest one.
He could have governed North Vietnam as a democratic socialist. With his popularity he could have allowed a loyal opposition and an adversary press.
While governing democratically he could have drawn attention to the dictatorial methods Ngo Dinh Diem was using to stay in power in South Vietnam. Eventually Ho Chi Minh could have united Vietnam under his leadership without a war.
Why didn't he do that? Probably because he made the mistake of modeling himself after Vladimir Lenin, the first Communist dictator of the Soviet Union. Lenin knew that he was unpopular in Russia, and that he had to rule as a dictator to stay in power.