Video From China; WTF is Going on Over There?

[007]

When the numbers start hitting the millions, then it might be a big deal. But we've had hundreds of thousands of cases of the Flu here in America, and thousands have died. Where's the big concern about that?

But... if this doesn't get under control in China, and millions DO die, think about N.K. Of course they're lying saying there are NO cases there, and that's pure BS, but this could WIPE OUT the hermit kingdom. They're not prepared to deal with ANYTHING like this, and they'll refuse any outside help.

The world just might be undergoing a total rearrangement as far as power and population.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Even if the Chinese are lying and there are 10 times as many infected in China than reported, the bottom line is, there are only about 1,000 cases outside of China, and only five deaths to date.

So, if they're lying about is going on inside their own country, it isn't having any affect outside of China.

I am sure that you understand exponential growth rates, so, WTF?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Well, Jim, we both know that when the CHICOMS say they have everything under control, you can bet your sweet ass they have NOTHING under control.
China is fucked, they are getting fucked, and everyone deeply invested in China is getting boned up the ass right with them.
And they say there is no God . . .

I wonder what this will do to Wallmart and Nike.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Articulate your point. Use your big boy words.

You mean actually make a good point? No, Unkotare doesnt do that. You will never find that clown in any kind of meaningful discussion. He just calls you a poopy head and moves on.

Doesnt his name mean something like "mountain of rat shit" in Korean or sumpin?

 

[JimBowie1958]

This could be the greatest blessing in disguise for the entire world, to wake the fuck up and cease outsourcing all their labor to the Chicommies.

Agreed. This might actually be a boon in disguise and drive American industry back to our shores.

That feels kind of ghoulish.

I love Chinese people, but their goobermint is among the most corrupt, evil and incompetent on the planet.

Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

 

[007]

This could be the greatest blessing in disguise for the entire world, to wake the fuck up and cease outsourcing all their labor to the Chicommies.

Agreed. This might actually be a boon in disguise and drive American industry back to our shores.

That feels kind of ghoulish.

I love Chinese people, but their goobermint is among the most corrupt, evil and incompetent on the planet.

Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

They say this virus came from animals... you believe that?

The conspiracy theories are out there that it was concocted in a lab.

Breaking Now: Scientists Confirm Coronavirus Man-Made…Contains ‘pShuttle-SN’ Sequence Proving Laboratory Origin

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Did you see the portable incinerators they moved to Wuhan province. We are not hearing the real numbers of deaths in that country.

No, silly, they use those to burn medical waste. China burns it trash.

Hopefully you are correct and I got the wrong idea.

Ironically, China is especially well equipped to deal with outbreaks, because of its government vicegrip on society. Could you imagine the National Guard rolling into your town, trying to tell everyone they had to stay inside for months?

Only in a Bernie Sanders Administration

 

[fncceo]

Even if the Chinese are lying and there are 10 times as many infected in China than reported, the bottom line is, there are only about 1,000 cases outside of China, and only five deaths to date.

So, if they're lying about is going on inside their own country, it isn't having any affect outside of China.

I am sure that you understand exponential growth rates, so, WTF?

Covid19 has a R0 of 2.5. Which means, without isolation or protective gear, an infected person can pass the infection to 2.5 persons. With quarantine in place, the R0 drops to practically zero. This accounts for the rapid infection spread within China, and a negligible infection spread outside the containment area.

 

[Aletheia4u]

SMOKING GUN: China Bought Weaponized Wuhan Virus From U.S.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Covid19 has a R0 of 2.5. Which means, without isolation or protective gear, an infected person can pass the infection to 2.5 persons. With quarantine in place, the R0 drops to practically zero. This accounts for the rapid infection spread within China, and a negligible infection spread outside the containment area.

Not so sure.

Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

Our computations and analysis were based on a mean field Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be 2.5, while the one computed by the official counts of the confirmed cases from the 11th of January until the 18th of January was found to be 4.6. Furthermore, on the estimated parameters from both scenarios, we provide tentative three-week forecasts of the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the cumulative number of infected will surpass 68,000 (as a lower bound) and could reach 140,000 (with an upper bound of 290,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of current data and estimations on the official count of infected people in the population, the death toll might exceed 7,000 by February 29;.....​

These 2 questions will determine if the coronavirus becomes a deadly pandemic

If one narrows the estimates to some of the world’s top epidemiological modeling labs — like Maia Majumder’s at Boston Children’s Hospital or Christian Althaus’s at the University of Bern or Jon Read’s at Lancaster or China CDC’s — the range looks a little broader: 2 to 3.11. That would make the new coronavirus more contagious than seasonal flu and potentially even more contagious than SARS.

Early basic reproduction number estimates for #nCoV2019 range from 2.0 to 3.3 (based off of publicly reported confirmed cases through 1/22/20 & subject to change) [http://ssrn.com/abstract=3524675]. Short explainer & several caveats in the thread below.

World Health Organization Underestimates Spread of COVID-19 Coronavirus, New Review Says | Medicine | Sci-News.com

For R0 greater than one the number infected is likely to increase, and for R0 less than one transmission is likely to die out.

The basic reproduction number is a central concept in infectious disease epidemiology, indicating the risk of an infectious agent with respect to epidemic spread.

The WHO estimates that the COVID-19 coronavirus has an R0 of between 1.4 and 2.5.

“Our review shows that the coronavirus is at least as transmissible as the SARS virus,” said Professor Joacim Rocklöv, a researcher at Umeå University, Sweden.

“And that says a great deal about the seriousness of the situation.”

Professor Rocklöv and colleagues identified 12 recent studies which estimated the basic reproductive number for COVID-19 from China and overseas.

“The studies consisted of estimations of the growth rate based upon the cases observed in the Chinese population, and based upon statistical and mathematical methods,” they said.

“The earliest studies of the coronavirus indicated a relatively low transmissibility.”

“Thereafter, the transmissibility rose rapidly to stabilize between 2-3 in the most recent studies.”

The reproduction number in the studies summed up to a mean of 3.28, and a median of 2.79, which is significantly higher than WHO’s estimate of 1.4-2.5.

“When looking at the development of the COVID-19 epidemic, reality seems to correspond well to or even exceed the highest epidemic growth in our calculations,” Professor Rocklöv said.

“Despite all intervention and control activities, the coronavirus has already spread to a significantly higher extent than SARS did.”

​

The stated estimates are all over the place, primarily because the Chicoms are not cooperating in getting valid data out to the public and the world medical community.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Covid19 has a R0 of 2.5. Which means, without isolation or protective gear, an infected person can pass the infection to 2.5 persons. With quarantine in place, the R0 drops to practically zero. This accounts for the rapid infection spread within China, and a negligible infection spread outside the containment area.

The Chicoms are making this worse by trying to imprison everyone under the guise of a half ass quantine. They are slowing food logistics which will weaken immune systems and cramming people into tight indoor spaces where the disease can spread more easily.

I wouldnt be surprised if they didnt just nuke Wuhan from orbit to be sure it didnt spread.

Every week or so, the numbers double.

How long before we are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths? million?

And the Chicoms are lying, giving lower numbers than observable facts would suggest.

 

[fncceo]

Covid19 has a R0 of 2.5. Which means, without isolation or protective gear, an infected person can pass the infection to 2.5 persons. With quarantine in place, the R0 drops to practically zero. This accounts for the rapid infection spread within China, and a negligible infection spread outside the containment area.

Not so sure.

Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

Our computations and analysis were based on a mean field Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be 2.5, while the one computed by the official counts of the confirmed cases from the 11th of January until the 18th of January was found to be 4.6. Furthermore, on the estimated parameters from both scenarios, we provide tentative three-week forecasts of the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the cumulative number of infected will surpass 68,000 (as a lower bound) and could reach 140,000 (with an upper bound of 290,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of current data and estimations on the official count of infected people in the population, the death toll might exceed 7,000 by February 29;.....​

These 2 questions will determine if the coronavirus becomes a deadly pandemic

If one narrows the estimates to some of the world’s top epidemiological modeling labs — like Maia Majumder’s at Boston Children’s Hospital or Christian Althaus’s at the University of Bern or Jon Read’s at Lancaster or China CDC’s — the range looks a little broader: 2 to 3.11. That would make the new coronavirus more contagious than seasonal flu and potentially even more contagious than SARS.

Early basic reproduction number estimates for #nCoV2019 range from 2.0 to 3.3 (based off of publicly reported confirmed cases through 1/22/20 & subject to change) [http://ssrn.com/abstract=3524675]. Short explainer & several caveats in the thread below.

World Health Organization Underestimates Spread of COVID-19 Coronavirus, New Review Says | Medicine | Sci-News.com

For R0 greater than one the number infected is likely to increase, and for R0 less than one transmission is likely to die out.

The basic reproduction number is a central concept in infectious disease epidemiology, indicating the risk of an infectious agent with respect to epidemic spread.

The WHO estimates that the COVID-19 coronavirus has an R0 of between 1.4 and 2.5.

“Our review shows that the coronavirus is at least as transmissible as the SARS virus,” said Professor Joacim Rocklöv, a researcher at Umeå University, Sweden.

“And that says a great deal about the seriousness of the situation.”

Professor Rocklöv and colleagues identified 12 recent studies which estimated the basic reproductive number for COVID-19 from China and overseas.

“The studies consisted of estimations of the growth rate based upon the cases observed in the Chinese population, and based upon statistical and mathematical methods,” they said.

“The earliest studies of the coronavirus indicated a relatively low transmissibility.”

“Thereafter, the transmissibility rose rapidly to stabilize between 2-3 in the most recent studies.”

The reproduction number in the studies summed up to a mean of 3.28, and a median of 2.79, which is significantly higher than WHO’s estimate of 1.4-2.5.

“When looking at the development of the COVID-19 epidemic, reality seems to correspond well to or even exceed the highest epidemic growth in our calculations,” Professor Rocklöv said.

“Despite all intervention and control activities, the coronavirus has already spread to a significantly higher extent than SARS did.”

​

The stated estimates are all over the place, primarily because the Chicoms are not cooperating in getting valid data out to the public and the world medical community.

R0 will vary widely in different populations. The rate of infection spread will be significantly higher in a densely populated environment such as China. However, the infection spread rate in Hong Kong, the highest population density on earth, remains quite low with only 63 known cases. This is attributable to Hong Kong's very quick response to containment with the Chinese mainland.

Even with an R0 as high as 4.0, compared to Measles, which has an R0 of 15, COVID19 remains a very manageable infection.

 

[gtopa1]

China doesn't want the outside world to know the truth

China doesn't want anything known that makes them look bad, ever. That doesn't mean people are dying on a much larger scale. You are peddling the god of the gaps.

Wake up & smell the chow mein……..

China coronavirus: Wuhan crematoriums 'burning bodies 24/7' | Daily Mail Online

Daily Mail??? nah. Just a rag, but experience tells us that the Chinese are NOT telling the whole story.

Greg

 

[fncceo]

I wouldnt be surprised if they didnt just nuke Wuhan from orbit to be sure it didnt spread.

They don't actually have that capability. All Chinese ICBMs are sub-orbital.

 

[Terence Millar]

All the Chinese leadership cares about is staying in power, and to hell with the Chinese people.

 

[Mac-7]

This could be the greatest blessing in disguise for the entire world, to wake the fuck up and cease outsourcing all their labor to the Chicommies.

Agreed. This might actually be a boon in disguise and drive American industry back to our shores.

Or at least wake up democratic governments and mega corporations to the need to end their total dependance on china

Just moving production to other countries away from china would be an improvement

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

So you acknowledge they don't want to look bad, but think they're telling the truth about the number of deaths?

Yes, probably somewhere close to true. Thanks for asking.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

You are aware Wuhan is the largest bio weapons lab in China? And that's the location of the epicenter of the outbreak?

So? That doesn't connect those dots, sorry. That's nutter fare.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

But... if this doesn't get under control in China,

The situation in China appears to be stabilizing.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The Chicoms are making this worse by trying to imprison everyone under the guise of a half ass quantine.

Clearly their severe quarantine was effective.