In the last nine days I’ve done two online debates on variolation, with Zvi Mowshowitz and Gregory Cochran. In both cases my debate partners seemed to basically agree with me; disagreements were minor. Last night Tyler Cowen posted 1000+ words on “Why I do not favor variolation for Covid-19”. Yet oddly he also doesn’t seem to disagree with my main claims that (1) we are likely to need a Plan B for all-too-likely scenario where most of the world seems likely to get infected soon, and (2) variolation is simple, mechanically feasible, and could cut Covid19 Deaths by a factor of 3-30.
Tyler lists 8 points, but really makes 11. If he had one strong argument, he’d have focused on that, and then so could I in my response. Alas, this way I can’t respond except at a similar length; you are warned.
If you recall, for other viruses we’ve seen factors of 3-30 cuts in death rates for low dose infections. This dose effect for viruses is very well established in virology. So I propose to quickly test different ways to dose, deliver, and mitigate Covid19 infections in 1000 volunteers. This is easy, lo-tech, and pretty sure to give big gains.
Then I’d open Hero Hotels where one (or one’s health plan) pays to enter, gets quickly deliberately infected, then must stay until recovered, after which one can leave and is certified to work and socialize. This can be completely voluntary, though it could also be subsidized or even required. The young and healthy, and critical workers, seem especially good candidates.
www.overcomingbias.com
If you want to "re-start the economy" here is a controlled way of doing it that doesn't involve putting everyone at risk. So who is ready to put their money where their mouth is?
Tyler lists 8 points, but really makes 11. If he had one strong argument, he’d have focused on that, and then so could I in my response. Alas, this way I can’t respond except at a similar length; you are warned.
If you recall, for other viruses we’ve seen factors of 3-30 cuts in death rates for low dose infections. This dose effect for viruses is very well established in virology. So I propose to quickly test different ways to dose, deliver, and mitigate Covid19 infections in 1000 volunteers. This is easy, lo-tech, and pretty sure to give big gains.
Then I’d open Hero Hotels where one (or one’s health plan) pays to enter, gets quickly deliberately infected, then must stay until recovered, after which one can leave and is certified to work and socialize. This can be completely voluntary, though it could also be subsidized or even required. The young and healthy, and critical workers, seem especially good candidates.
Reply to Cowen On Variolation
In the last nine days I’ve done two online debates on variolation, with Zvi Mowshowitz and Gregory Cochran. In both cases my debate partners seemed to basically agree with me; disagreements were minor. Last night Tyler Cowen
www.overcomingbias.com
If you want to "re-start the economy" here is a controlled way of doing it that doesn't involve putting everyone at risk. So who is ready to put their money where their mouth is?
Last edited:
