US Intelligence Agencies: Iran doesn't currently have a Nuclear Weapons Program

[onedomino]

And right on cue, here was have Bush loving message board posters asking us to trust their "gut feelings", rather that the collective assessments of the american intelligence community, and the IAEA.

Bottom line: You and your president totally exaggerated the threat from iran. Totally. Now, you have egg on your face, and are asking us to trust your "feelings" about iran.

No, Iran is not a shining example of being forthcoming about its nuclear activities. Neither, for that matter, has our good ally Pakistan. But, the fact is that the Iranian "problem" is exaggerated, and they are nowhere close to having a nuke, even assuming that they restart the nucelar weapons research.

'Gut feelings?" What are you talking about? And thanks for the typically insulting tone of your remarks. I have not disputed the NIE report. The report itself admits to knowing nothing of Iranian intentions. I submit that Iranian failure to cooperate with the IAEA, hiding nuclear facilities underground, and refusal to negotiate an enrichment deal with the Russians, can logically be explained by the intention to develop nuclear weapons. How would you explain such behavior? Point to one line in my post that is incorrect or cannot be debated either way. I have written about what the situation looks like from the Iranian side. A logical analysis would yield that in the absence of an American security guarantee that will never be forthcoming, the Mullahs must obtain nuclear weapons to ensure their survival. And if you imagine they do not think about it in such terms you are naive in the extreme.

 

[mattskramer]

'Gut feelings?" What are you talking about? And thanks for the typically insulting tone of your remarks. I have not disputed the NIE report. The report itself admits to knowing nothing of Iranian intentions. I submit that Iranian failure to cooperate with the IAEA, hiding nuclear facilities underground, and refusal to negotiate an enrichment deal with the Russians, can logically be explained by the intention to develop nuclear weapons. How would you explain such behavior? Point to one line in my post that is incorrect or cannot be debated either way. I have written about what the situation looks like from the Iranian side. A logical analysis would yield that in the absence of an American security guarantee that will never be forthcoming, the Mullahs must obtain nuclear weapons to ensure their survival. And if you imagine they do not think about it in such terms you are naive in the extreme.

It looks as if the war hawk position is that just because we don’t have irrefutable proof that Iran is making nukes does not mean that it is not making nukes. The proof may still be out there. Like real WMD and God and unicorns, you can’t prove that such things do not exist.

 

[Shogun]

 

[DeadCanDance]

'Gut feelings?" What are you talking about? And thanks for the typically insulting tone of your remarks. I have not disputed the NIE report. The report itself admits to knowing nothing of Iranian intentions. I submit that Iranian failure to cooperate with the IAEA, hiding nuclear facilities underground, and refusal to negotiate an enrichment deal with the Russians, can logically be explained by the intention to develop nuclear weapons. How would you explain such behavior? Point to one line in my post that is incorrect or cannot be debated either way. I have written about what the situation looks like from the Iranian side. A logical analysis would yield that in the absence of an American security guarantee that will never be forthcoming, the Mullahs must obtain nuclear weapons to ensure their survival. And if you imagine they do not think about it in such terms you are naive in the extreme.

I submit that Iranian failure to cooperate with the IAEA, hiding nuclear facilities underground, and refusal to negotiate an enrichment deal with the Russians, can logically be explained by the intention to develop nuclear weapons. How would you explain such behavior?


See, you're still relying on gut feelings that somehow, somewhere, Iran is building a nuclear bomb, despite no evidence supporting that gut feeling. Despite the fact that all intelligence agencies have concluded Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program years ago. Despite the fact that IAEA has found no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.

There are plenty of reasons that iran would enrich its own uranium. The same reason that Brazil has centrifuge facilities to enrich its own uranium for its domestic nuclear industry (see attached article below). Its a matter of national sovereignty.

This is not to say that Iran never has, and never will, conduct research into nuclear weapons. Heck, even Argentina and Brazil had nuclear weapons research programs. But, it is to say that Warhawks jumped the gun on concluding Iran was actively building a bomb, that they were a mere one or two years away from having a bomb, and that we should bomb them. The gig is up. The saber rattling and warmogering of Bush lovers has been based on totally hyped and exaggerated fear mongering.

Brazil Officially Starts First Uranium Enrichment Facility

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, May 8, 2006 (ENS) - Brazil has inaugurated its first uranium enrichment facility to produce the type of fuel for nuclear power plants that Iran is running into trouble for attempting to produce. There are strong suspicions that the objective of the Iranian nuclear program is to eventually build a bomb, but Brazil has managed to assure the international community its intentions are industrial and commercial, not military.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/may2006/2006-05-08-04.asp

 

[M14 Shooter]

A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released today concludes with “high confidence” that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”

Anyone want to guess as to WHY they halted their nuke program?

 

[maineman]

"bomb bomb bomb...bomb bomb Brazil"

you know the tune

 

[mattskramer]

Anyone want to guess as to WHY they halted their nuke program?

Gee. I don’t know. Perhaps international pressure. Perhaps diplomacy. Perhaps communication followed by better mutual understanding. Perhaps Bush slipped a few dollars under the table for Iran. You tell us.

 

[maineman]

Anyone want to guess as to WHY they halted their nuke program?

I could guess just like you could guess...and that is all it would ever be.... a guess!

 

[M14 Shooter]

Gee. I don’t know. Perhaps international pressure. Perhaps diplomacy.

What pressure/diplomacy, and from whom?
Specifically, please.

 

[mattskramer]

I could guess just like you could guess...and that is all it would ever be.... a guess!

Nope. Some people like M14 can read minds.

 

[mattskramer]

What pressure/diplomacy, and from whom?
Specifically, please.

Perhaps other nations sent communications to Iran telling it to be careful or they would not be trade as readily with it. Perhaps Pakistan said that Iran seems to be causing too much havoc and better shape up.

 

[DeadCanDance]

What pressure/diplomacy, and from whom?
Specifically, please.

Jesus, how could you have already forgetten the the US, the european nations, the UN, and the IAEA were pressuring Iran? Seriously, do you read newspapers or anything?

NIE REPORT: "Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously."

 

[M14 Shooter]

Perhaps other nations sent communications to Iran telling it to be careful or they would not be trade as readily with it. Perhaps Pakistan said that Iran seems to be causing too much havoc and better shape up.

You ddnt answer my question.

Who, specifically, used what specific international pressure/diplomacy to get Iran to halt their program - in 2003?

Now, you say you always answer every question...

 

[M14 Shooter]

Jesus, how could you have already forgetten the the US, the european nations, the UN, and the IAEA were pressuring Iran? Seriously, do you read newspapers or anything?

I'm looking for dspecific pressures placed by specific people/countries.
Do you have examples of any, or are you simply supposing?

 

[mattskramer]

You ddnt answer my question.

Who, specifically, used what specific international pressure/diplomacy to get Iran to halt their program - in 2003?

Now, you say you always answer every question...

“I don’t know” is my answer. Look at my previous posts. I used the word “Perhaps”. I don’t know. I’m just shooting off possible scenarios. What is your guess?

 

[M14 Shooter]

“I don’t know” is my answer. Look at my previous posts. I used the word “Perhaps”. I don’t know. I’m just shooting off possible scenarios. What is your guess?

Oh that's right -- you stated an opinion so that you dont have to back up with facts. I, somehow, forgot that this is popular here.

How about:
Iran gave up its nuke program because of the very real threat that, after the invasion of Iraq, they were next?

 

[DeadCanDance]

I'm looking for dspecific pressures placed by specific people/countries.
Do you have examples of any, or are you simply supposing?

What does it matter? The NIE is not going to publish classified, behind the scenes diplomacy and contacts between Iran, Russia, UK, France, and others.

Why do you care? Are you trying to divert from the fact that Bush lovers have been wrong....AGAIN...with respect to anothter supposed imminent threat to us?

 

[maineman]

Oh that's right -- you stated an opinion so that you dont have to back up with facts. I, somehow, forgot that this is popular here.

How about:
Iran gave up its nuke program because of the very real threat that, after the invasion of Iraq, they were next?

an opinion that you cannot back up with facts. what a surprise

 

[mattskramer]

You ddnt answer my question.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/showpost.php?p=628525&postcount=87

Question:

Anyone want to guess as to WHY they halted their nuke program?

Answer:

I don’t know.
Perhaps international pressure.
Perhaps diplomacy.
Perhaps communication followed by better mutual understanding.
Perhaps Bush slipped a few dollars under the table for Iran.

 

[M14 Shooter]

What does it matter? The NIE is not going to publish classified, behind the scenes diplomacy and contacts between Iran, Russia, UK, France, and others.

And what of the -public- diplomacy and contacts between Iran, Russia, UK, France, and others?

Why do you care? Are you trying to divert from the fact that Bush lovers have been wrong....AGAIN.

You'll remember that the Bush administration was not alone in the discussion of the nuclear threay from Iran.

You also seem to be trying very hard to avoid giving GWB credit for getting Iran to drop their nuke program. Why is that?