...expect the number of people of retirement age to grow?
3.65 million Boomers turning 65 each year and 82% of then retire by age 65.
Relevant factoids:
Average U.S. retirement age: 61
Average U.S. life expectancy 79
Population U.S. 313.9
Note: "average" means about half before and the rest after.
Half of the 1946 born boomers retired before 2007. During the two years of the 110th congress the number of jobless grew by 10 million people if we say that number was the 8 million boomers then we have to explain why we're not subtracting the 8 million that died of old age during those 2 years.
In 2009 the number of jobless grew another 5 million. If we say 3.65 million of that growth was boomers then we still need to explain why the annual average four million didn't die that year.
There are lots of ways to estimate the growth due to demographics, but there's no reasonable way to explain the total 17 million
increase that we got with just the unsupported 3.65 million boomer retiree number.
So much BS, so little time.
First of all, your chart is not labeled. It appears to be the "not in labor force" plus the "unemployed."
Second, "average" does not mean half before and half after, that is called the "median." The median retirement age is 62.3 years.
Third, half of the 82% of the 3.65 million yearly Boomers retired after 2008, or about 1.5 million per year each year after 2008.
Fourth, the jobless are not just the unemployed and retired, there are 16 year olds who choose to stay in school, stay at home spouses, adults who stay home to care for a sick or aged family member, etc.
Fifth, retirees are part of the "not in labor force" group, not the unemployed group.
Sixth, people die at all ages, not just over the median retirement age.
Seventh, dead people are not counted as jobless.
Eighth, the "not in labor force" grew by 2.5 million during the 110 Congress and "unemployment" grew by 5.4 million, that's less than 8 million, not your 10 million, and obviously more than twice as many became "jobless" as a result of the Bush Depression rather than leaving the work force.
Ninth, in 2009, 2.5 million more were not in the workforce, for whatever reason, and 3.1 million more workers lost their jobs in the continuing Bush Depression. None of them were dead, but the obvious increase of the not in labor force can be attributed to the number of retiring Boomers and workers returning to school to develop new job skills.
Finally, the not in labor force and unemployed are unrelated and it is stupid to combine them. The unemployed have declined by 5.4 million since the peak of the Bush Depression, while the labor force participation rate has been decreasing since long before the Bush Depression and will continue to decrease until all the Boomers leave the work force unless we increase immigration.
