US Backed Terror Campaign

[Onyx]

The Saudis have over 650,000 active duty personnel and 200,000 in the national guard.

I can guarantee you those numbers are false. They only have relatively 300,000 active duty personnel in the land forces alone. Where are you getting those numbers?

This site claims they only have 225,000 actual fighters, which seems the most realistic. كيف تبدو القوة العسكرية السعودية؟

Though they are inexperienced they are well funded and have the backing of the United States.

First off, do not underestimate the importance of experience. A smart commander can be the difference between losing a battle with 100,000 troops, and winning a battle with 10,000. The commanders in Yemen have been engaged in actual war operations for over a decade, which gives them a major advantage over the KSA.

Saudi Arabia already tried the classic US strategy of pouring an endless amount of money on the problem. It failed miserably and they got their asses kicked. That is why they have resorted to desperately bombing cities. They cannot engage the rebels on land without being slaughtered, so their only hope is to break their spirit through saturation bombing.

Mecca is safe.

No one expected the rebel Yemeni forces to enter into Saudi Arabian borders, much less not get totally destroyed.

The Republican Guard not only has taken territory in Saudi Arabia, but they left a total path of destruction.

Saudi Arabia cannot even kick Yemen out of its own borders, which were militarized and well defended when they were breached. It is a real possibility that the conflict could escalate to be fought entirely in Saudi Arabia once the loyalists are rooted out.

Yemen is about undermining Iran, just as US meddling in Ukraine was about undermining Russia.

Except Yemen is not a proxy of Iran.

They both had comparable military personnel before the revolution. Saleh had already modernized the Republican Guard, whereas Iran is just beginning to modernize their military. They both have a full arsenal of tactical ballistic missiles as well.

Iran and Yemen have mutually shared interests. It isn't a dominant relationship that is going on, and Yemen could actually evolve into being the top military power in the ME, despite being the poorest country.

 

[Tehon]

Where are you getting those numbers?

If we use your link it says 440,000 in the Army and an additional 225,000 in the other services. That is fairly close to my number, though I may be off on my national guard numbers.

Saudi army contain 440,000 in the Saudi army member in addition to the 225,000 fighters in the military.

First off, do not underestimate the importance of experience. A smart commander can be the difference between losing a battle with 100,000 troops, and winning a battle with 10,000. The commanders in Yemen have been engaged in actual war operations for over a decade, which gives them a major advantage over the KSA.

I agree with this. I think you misunderstood me, I was saying the Saudis were inexperienced but it didn't matter because they have the backing of the USG. The US would never allow Yemenis to cross all the way to Mecca. Cross border skirmishes are one thing, Yemenis would be cannon fodder if they tried to make their way to Mecca.

Except Yemen is not a proxy of Iran.

Yes I agree here as well, but I'm not a player. The Saudis are however, and they feel differently, and have made their feelings known to the USG on several occasions. The waters off the coast of Yemen are too strategically important for the USG and Israel to risk a developing relationship between Houthis and Iranians. US planners are looking down the road to a possible confrontation with Iran. In such an event, Iran having any leverage in Yemen would have to be deemed unacceptable.

 

[Onyx]

Saudi army contain 440,000 in the Saudi army member in addition to the 225,000 fighters in the military.

What I understood from it was that there were 225,000 soldiers that were both active duty and equipped/trained for actual combat operations. Global firepower is another source that confirms that...

Saudi Arabia Military Strength

First off, do not underestimate the importance of experience. A smart commander can be the difference between losing a battle with 100,000 troops, and winning a battle with 10,000. The commanders in Yemen have been engaged in actual war operations for over a decade, which gives them a major advantage over the KSA.

Cross border skirmishes are one thing, Yemenis would be cannon fodder if they tried to make their way to Mecca.

It is not a border skirmish. It is a year long occupation inside the actual borders of Saudi Arabia. They cut through Saudi lines like butter, set their bases aflame, and sent the divisions the KSA had spent months organizing along the border into a retreat.

Saudi Arabia spent a ridiculous amount of their time and money creating a military centered around an advanced modernized airforce, which has proved to have limited effectiveness against the conventional military forces to the south ( a cruel lesson the US armed forces will also learn if they ever fight a force greater than guerrillas)

I believe this conflict has exposed that the decade old tale of Saudi military strength is little more than an illusion. I understand enough about history and military theory to know that having more money and manpower is not a guarantee of military superiority.

The real reason an army from Yemen would never march on Mecca is because it would provoke a US ground intervention.

Yes I agree here as well, but I'm not a player. The Saudis are however, and they feel differently, and have made their feelings known to the USG on several occasions. The waters off the coast of Yemen are too strategically important for the USG and Israel to risk a developing relationship between Houthis and Iranians. US planners are looking down the road to a possible confrontation with Iran. In such an event, Iran having any leverage in Yemen would have to be deemed unacceptable.

Yes, I am not disregarding the strategic importance of Yemen and its location next to the Gulf of Aden. I do not believe that is the primary reason that they have come under attack. Yemen could easily be bought off using foreign assistance if that were the case, considering the new revolutionary government has had no qualms about playing diplomacy. Also, there is no way that Yemen could pose even a slight threat in the Gulf of Aden, due to an incredibly high western naval presence.

The real reason, as I pointed out, is Yemen's capacity to mobilize a large military force south of the Sauds. Saudi Arabia is the leader of the US backed Sunni bloc in the Middle East, and Yemen can not only field an army of formidable size, but also has direct access into the country of Saudi Arabia, not to mention its close proximity to the religiously significant city of Mecca.

By the way, you should avoid conflating the new Yemeni government with Houthis. It is a unity government, and all Houthis did was form a governing revolutionary council to supervise it.

 

[Tehon]

What I understood from it was that there were 225,000 soldiers that were both active duty and equipped/trained for actual combat operations. Global firepower is another source that confirms that...

That would mean, if the headlines were correct, that Saudi Arabia sent 2/3 of its fighting force to the Yemen border during the buildup. I don't know.
Saudi Arabia Masses 150,000 Troops to Support Airstrikes in Yemen

I don't disagree with what you are saying from the Saudi perspective, the perceived threat that the Yemenis present to the kingdom, that is why the Saudis are there bombing. Though you admit, the kingdom is protected by the US and really isn't threatened by invasion of the Yemenis. So why would the US risk involvement in the conflict if it felt KSA wasn't threatened?

I'm just looking further down the road at the ultimate goal, the place where US, Saudi and Israeli ambitions coincide. And yes, the Houthis could present a problem in the Bab-el-Mandeb.

Yemen Rebels Attacked UAE Warship, Pose Threat to Shipping

 

[Onyx]

That would mean, if the headlines were correct, that Saudi Arabia sent 2/3 of its fighting force to the Yemen border during the buildup. I don't know.
Saudi Arabia Masses 150,000 Troops to Support Airstrikes in Yemen

That isn't so hard to believe. It isn't like they are seriously threatened by Iraq or Jordan to their north.

Saudi Arabia was invasion ready, and if their airstrikes and military operations around Aden were more successful, they probably would of invaded. This is a classic example of severely underestimating your enemy.

I don't disagree with what you are saying from the Saudi perspective, the perceived threat that the Yemenis present to the kingdom, that is why the Saudis are there bombing. Though you admit, the kingdom is protected by the US and really isn't threatened by invasion of the Yemenis. So why would the US risk involvement in the conflict if it felt KSA wasn't threatened?

If you want to go from a Saudi perspective, a hypothetical US intervention probably does not factor in much when it comes to making decisions on national security.

Would you rely on game theory to protect your interests?

I'm just looking further down the road at the ultimate goal, the place where US, Saudi and Israeli ambitions coincide. And yes, the Houthis could present a problem in the Bab-el-Mandeb.

Yemen Rebels Attacked UAE Warship, Pose Threat to Shipping

I mentioned this in the OP. The Arab media has speculated that the rebels would fire on cargo ships for the past 2 years. They have only ever attacked Saudi, UAE, and US ships (the UAE and KSA both have forces in Aden).

 

[Phoenall]

Do you think if the Islamists had an attack opening here that they would show greater mercy to civilians?

What the fuck is that supposed to mean, pus nuts? Ever since Jews consolidated their hold on our media, the United States has become the monster of the world. Murderous, treacherous, deceitful, and amoral. WE NEED TO BREAK UP THE JEWISH MEDIA.

And the actual evidence shows that it is mainly muslims that own the US media, and it is only the neo nazi, white supremacist and anti semitic hate sites that pass of this crap as true

 

[cnelsen]

Do you think if the Islamists had an attack opening here that they would show greater mercy to civilians?

What the fuck is that supposed to mean, pus nuts? Ever since Jews consolidated their hold on our media, the United States has become the monster of the world. Murderous, treacherous, deceitful, and amoral. WE NEED TO BREAK UP THE JEWISH MEDIA.

And the actual evidence shows that it is mainly muslims that own the US media, and it is only the neo nazi, white supremacist and anti semitic hate sites that pass of this crap as true

Haha, ok, Shlomo. Jeff Bezos is Muslim? Sumner Redstone is Muslim? Michael Eisner is Muslim? Hain Saban is Muslim? What is it about you people that causes you to lie so relentlessly? Ashamed? Up to no good?

 

[Phoenall]

Do you think if the Islamists had an attack opening here that they would show greater mercy to civilians?

What the fuck is that supposed to mean, pus nuts? Ever since Jews consolidated their hold on our media, the United States has become the monster of the world. Murderous, treacherous, deceitful, and amoral. WE NEED TO BREAK UP THE JEWISH MEDIA.

And the actual evidence shows that it is mainly muslims that own the US media, and it is only the neo nazi, white supremacist and anti semitic hate sites that pass of this crap as true

Haha, ok, Shlomo. Jeff Bezos is Muslim? Sumner Redstone is Muslim? Michael Eisner is Muslim? Hain Saban is Muslim? What is it about you people that causes you to lie so relentlessly? Ashamed? Up to no good?

4 names out of 20,000 and to you it proves the Jews own the media. Are these racial Jews, zionist Jews or religious Jews ?
Did you forget about the muslim that beheaded his wife because she brought dishonour on his family name ? Wasnt he in media ?

 

[Tehon]

If you want to go from a Saudi perspective, a hypothetical US intervention probably does not factor in much when it comes to making decisions on national security.

It was never my intent to look at the Saudi perspective, I gave my opinion as to why I believed the USG would implicate itself in a terror campaign against the people of Yemen. You took exception to my post and have been framing the debate around Saudi Arabian security concerns ever since. I do not believe the Saudis are the least bit justified nor do I believe they would take such actions without the approval of the USG.