Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Sen

Geaux4it

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Well, well.... Sounds like someone grew some nads

-Geaux

Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Senate

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2014 17:24 -0500

Following last week's surprising passage of the preliminary approval to extend emergency unemployment claims, i.e. emergency jobless claims, for 3 months, when six republicans sided with democrats and gave approval to the original $6.4 billion legislation, there was an expectation that up to 1.4 million Americans would get their benefits extended once again (despite the so-called recovery in the economy, and the job market, instead of just all time high S&P500). Moments ago such hopes were dashed, when a Senate plan to restore long-term jobless benefits hit a wall Tuesday after Republicans withdrew their support amid complaints over cost and other issues.

The $18 billion bill, which would restore the benefits through the end of 2014, failed to clear a key test vote. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid needed to attract 60 senators to move the bill forward, but the bill stalled on a 52-48 vote.

No Republicans voted in favor.

What happened between then and now, and why did those republicans revert back to the party line?

Reid lost their support when he amended the bill and failed to come up with a plan to offset the cost within 10 years.

"It doesn't look good," Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins said before the vote and after a meeting with Reid.

Collins and Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller unsuccessfully proposed that Reid go back to the three-month extension. "We're back to ground zero," Heller said.

The senators are expected to return to the negotiating table. The GOP-controlled House has yet to vote on extending the benefits.

Reid postponed a prior vote Monday night upon realizing he didn't have enough support and said he needed time to talk with members of both parties.

It almost makes one wonder if Reid isn't trying to sabotage his own legislation. Whatever the answer, it increasingly seems that no law, retroactive or otherwise, will pass before the end of the month, which also means that up to (a record) 1.4 million Americans will fall out of the labor force, in addition to the now traditional 200K-600K people who quietly exit the labor pool every month. Which also means that, as we explained previously, since the impact on the unemployment rate could be as high as 0.8% from just the EUC expiration alone, that the unemployment rate for January could crash to under 6% just as the economy is starting to really backslide, as shown by the recent horrendous data from retailers across the board.


Unemployment Rate Set To Plunge As Bill To Restore Jobless Benefits Fails To Pass Senate | Zero Hedge
 
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percysunshine

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Contrarian point of view:

With unemployment benefits curtailed, people will start looking for work and the unemployment rate will go up, in the near term.

The number of people employed will also go up, but that is another issue.
 

LogikAndReazon

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Just think of how much permanent unemployment welfare benefits could expand and grow the economy !!! Lol
 

TemplarKormac

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I wonder when the unemployment rate will hit zero? Given that more and more people leave the workforce every month, you'll see this administration touting that as "job growth."
 

percysunshine

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I wonder when the unemployment rate will hit zero? Given that more and more people leave the workforce every month, you'll see this administration touting that as "job growth."
From a statistical perspective, the former Soviet Union had a zero unemployment rate. There were never any jobs to look for. Either the State assigned you one, or it didn't.
 

The Rabbi

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Contrarian point of view:

With unemployment benefits curtailed, people will start looking for work and the unemployment rate will go up, in the near term.

The number of people employed will also go up, but that is another issue.
I think to collect unemployment you need to be actively looking for work. Thus anyone collecting unemployment is included in UE figures.
You are correct that an improving job market generally shows higher unemployment as people who formerly were not counted now decide to go look for work.
 

Rozman

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I remember growing up to continue collecting UE you had to provide the names of the companies you
filled out an application for work.If you did not go out and try to get work your benefits were stopped.
Of course that doesn't happen any more.I remember an Aunt sitting at our dining room table writing out
which companies she went to that week....
 
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Geaux4it

Geaux4it

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I wonder when the unemployment rate will hit zero? Given that more and more people leave the workforce every month, you'll see this administration touting that as "job growth."
Indeed.. We will have 200,000 jobs and they will all be filled.

Problem solved

-Geaux
 

percysunshine

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Contrarian point of view:

With unemployment benefits curtailed, people will start looking for work and the unemployment rate will go up, in the near term.

The number of people employed will also go up, but that is another issue.
I think to collect unemployment you need to be actively looking for work. Thus anyone collecting unemployment is included in UE figures.
You are correct that an improving job market generally shows higher unemployment as people who formerly were not counted now decide to go look for work.
Unemployment numbers (UE3) do not explicitly include people on unemployment. They are based on surveys. You are correct if people answer the surveys in the same way that they certified to the State that they 'are seeking work' in order to receive benefits.
 
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jasonnfree

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More predictions from the Romney has it locked up crowd.
 

velvtacheeze

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Another conservative prediction. Sigh. When will they learn?

I'm still waiting for the cheering Iraqis that Cheney promised. I'm still waiting for the massive inflation that critics of the stimulus and quantitative easing promised. I'm still waiting for Romneycare in Massachusetts to fail, let alone it's national version, the ACA, to fail. Oh, and is the minimum wage increase gonna cause all the suffering that conservatives have been predicting at some point since it started in 1938? I'm just wondering. Let me know when one of your b____shit predictions actually comes true.
 

percysunshine

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And in related news, Velveeta Cheese cannot be found anywhere in New Jersey.
 

KNB

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95% of the money made during the economic recovery went to the richest 1% of the population. Come on, Republicans, tell us again how those wealthy job creators are creating so many jobs. Perhaps 95% of our money just isn't enough to create any jobs? What would be a fair and balanced amount for the super-rich? Should 99% of the money go to the 1% of the population who already have more money than they will ever need?

Just how much more money do these billionaire "job creators" need before they start creating all of those jobs?

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf
Some 95% of 2009-2012 Income Gains Went to Wealthiest 1% - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Obama admits 95% of income gains gone to top 1% - Sep. 15, 2013
One percent recovery: 95 percent of gains have gone to the top one percent.
How the 1 percent won the recovery, in one table
Inequality: Growing apart | The Economist
 

asterism

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Another conservative prediction. Sigh. When will they learn?

I'm still waiting for the cheering Iraqis that Cheney promised. I'm still waiting for the massive inflation that critics of the stimulus and quantitative easing promised. I'm still waiting for Romneycare in Massachusetts to fail, let alone it's national version, the ACA, to fail. Oh, and is the minimum wage increase gonna cause all the suffering that conservatives have been predicting at some point since it started in 1938? I'm just wondering. Let me know when one of your b____shit predictions actually comes true.
North's Kurds dance, cheer to mark what they see as revenge on regime - Baltimore Sun
 

gallantwarrior

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I remember growing up to continue collecting UE you had to provide the names of the companies you
filled out an application for work.If you did not go out and try to get work your benefits were stopped.
Of course that doesn't happen any more.I remember an Aunt sitting at our dining room table writing out
which companies she went to that week....
Up here, all you have to do is confirm you looked for work. No need to provide supporting information.
 

Billo_Really

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I remember growing up to continue collecting UE you had to provide the names of the companies you
filled out an application for work.If you did not go out and try to get work your benefits were stopped.
Of course that doesn't happen any more.I remember an Aunt sitting at our dining room table writing out
which companies she went to that week....
In order to receive federal extension UE benefits, you need to keep a record of at least 3 job search company's and contacts per week and produce that record whenever asked for it.
 

Politico

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No the actual employment numbers not being reported will cause the number to plunge.
 
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Mac1958

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.

Dang, it's frustrating as hell, but a couple of years ago I saw a report about a European country that stopped extending unemployment benefits and the people had to get serious about looking for work. Sure enough, after the unemployment rate spiked when people began looking again, it dropped significantly once people started depending on themselves. I wish I had kept that story.

So all I can say about that is "I've heard...." -- but I think it's very possible it will happen now.

.
 

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