Unemployment Going To 12-13%?

[Annie]

Disturbing:


James Pethokoukis » Blog Archive » 12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent | Blogs |

November 11th, 2009
12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent

Posted by: James Pethokoukis

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.

So here is what I gleaned from Rosenberg’s latest report (bold is mine):

 

[KittenKoder]

I wager we have not come close to seeing the end of this mess. By spending all that money on "stimulus" by both baffoons, there isn't any to actually invest in jobs. When I say spending, I really mean wasting, because that's exactly what they did. They didn't put it to good use at all, they just threw it all at people and businesses and expected that to help ... well ... if they had been smart they could have, oh I don't know ... cut all the filing and licensing fees for businesses to come here so more would move here and increase the number of jobs. Perhaps increase tourism by offering investing in attractions and parks that draw international clients so people would bring money into the country instead of us continuing to funnel it out. Improve strong products which still have high demands so not only Americans would purchase, but there would be an export demand for them as well, bringing more money into the country ... but naw ...

They threw the money are people and businesses, who all promptly bought a ton of imports, sending it all to other countries ... I know I did, bought a ton of European and Japanese imports actually.

 

[Mike458877]

I agree, 13% will not be the top of this mountain, I'm betting we go higher. Who knows where we really are right now, as the numbers are fudged often.

I know this, you cannot strangle business and then expect them to keep people employed, let alone expect them to grow and employ more! It simply doesn't work.

Washington is full of lawmakers who have never had to run a lemonade stand, let alone a business, yet they feel they are qualified to direct how businesses operate and what they can afford.

Personally we could easily expand and add several new hires, but, the clamps are so tight and demanding, we are hunkering down to weather a storm. We are not going to risk our business on hopes and dreams of some kind of wishful change which is no where to be found. We don't dare consider anything but reductions right now, with the current talk in Washington of higher fees, higher taxes and so on. Further, local government is just as bad.

So the choice is simply, make me pay more and watch me be forced to lay more people off and reduce liabilities or provide me real incentives to expand and hire more. A one time credit of a mere 3,000 for a new hire is a joke. anyone in business sees through that BS.

Mike

 

[KittenKoder]

I agree, 13% will not be the top of this mountain, I'm betting we go higher. Who knows where we really are right now, as the numbers are fudged often.

I know this, you cannot strangle business and then expect them to keep people employed, let alone expect them to grow and employ more! It simply doesn't work.

Washington is full of lawmakers who have never had to run a lemonade stand, let alone a business, yet they feel they are qualified to direct how businesses operate and what they can afford.

Personally we could easily expand and add several new hires, but, the clamps are so tight and demanding, we are hunkering down to weather a storm. We are not going to risk our business on hopes and dreams of some kind of wishful change which is no where to be found. We don't dare consider anything but reductions right now, with the current talk in Washington of higher fees, higher taxes and so on. Further, local government is just as bad.

So the choice is simply, make me pay more and watch me be forced to lay more people off and reduce liabilities or provide me real incentives to expand and hire more. A one time credit of a mere 3,000 for a new hire is a joke. anyone in business sees through that BS.

Mike

There's been freezes on lots of hiring for many fields in my area, even the tech industry (something that's suppose to be Seattle's new backbone with the loss of our big coffee company) is very slow in growth. Microsoft is actually growing a lot slower than they appear to, their profits are due to layoffs as their international sales are still falling, domestic sales are only holding. Apple is steady, but it's not enough revenue to hold us afloat, our city is sinking fast, already bankrupt and in debt, if things don't pick up soon, we're screwed completely ... and I see no possibility of it improving anytime soon. Our "newly" elected officials are still the same ones ... just playing musical chairs. As I say, we are now officially California Junior.

 

[tigerbob]

Fantastic! Down to 12-13%? That would be awesome!

.......and then I realized you weren't posting something specific to Michigan.

 

[KittenKoder]

Fantastic! Down to 12-13%? That would be awesome!

.......and then I realized you weren't posting something specific to Michigan.

Damn ... but then you don't have much of an industry there do you? We have one thing that's stable, the ports. If not for the Sound, we'd already be where you're at.

 

[Single Dad]

More Unemployed People = More People On The Public Dole(s) = More Democrat Votes


It's all part of the Socialist plan people. There are no surprises here.

 

[midcan5]

And moaning and crying and crying and complaining and bitching and moaning will get you where? Where will that get you? Are those working buying? Seems not as stores, restaurants are empty and offering all sorts of incentives. We recently bought a Buick made in Michigan and have been out shopping and eating out. People put up or STFU. And stop shopping where they fluck over American workers.

Thumbs up Day – Political Pass
Buy American - Support Yourself – Political Pass

MadeInUSA - Home- Recycling American Dollars Through Patriotic Spending
American Made Products Directory - Made in USA, United States Manufacturers
Made in USA, Made in America, US, American-Made
UAW Made Products
http://shopunionmade.org/
UNION BUILT PC - CONTACT US
https://unionbuiltpc.com/netbook_ubu100.php

http://www.usmessageboard.com/economy/89814-random-musings-on-american-jobs.html

 

[Single Dad]

What kind of a Buick did you buy?

 

[KittenKoder]

And moaning and crying and crying and complaining and bitching and moaning will get you where? Where will that get you? Are those working buying? Seems not as stores, restaurants are empty and offering all sorts of incentives. We recently bought a Buick made in Michigan and have been out shopping and eating out. People put up or STFU. And stop shopping where they fluck over American workers.

Thumbs up Day – Political Pass
Buy American - Support Yourself – Political Pass

MadeInUSA - Home- Recycling American Dollars Through Patriotic Spending
American Made Products Directory - Made in USA, United States Manufacturers
Made in USA, Made in America, US, American-Made
UAW Made Products
http://shopunionmade.org/
UNION BUILT PC - CONTACT US
https://unionbuiltpc.com/netbook_ubu100.php

http://www.usmessageboard.com/economy/89814-random-musings-on-american-jobs.html

Then tell them to make the products better. It's a simple formula that drives capitalism ... good product .... affordable cots .... equals more sales .... bad product ... at too high a price ... equals no sales.

 

[Single Dad]

Then tell them to make the products better. It's a simple formula that drives capitalism ... good product .... affordable cots .... equals more sales .... bad product ... at too high a price ... equals no sales.

Do you mean to say that forcing an auto manufacturer to pay Union wages of $70K+ per year plus Cadillac level bennies for unskilled or at best medium skilled labor does not lead to lower product prices?

 

[KittenKoder]

Then tell them to make the products better. It's a simple formula that drives capitalism ... good product .... affordable cots .... equals more sales .... bad product ... at too high a price ... equals no sales.

Do you mean to say that forcing an auto manufacturer to pay Union wages of $70K+ per year plus Cadillac level bennies for unskilled or at best medium skilled labor does not lead to lower product prices?

Why yes, I am.

 

[Single Dad]

I wonder how ACORN's employee numbers have changed since Jan 09?

 

[KittenKoder]

I wonder how ACORN's employee numbers have changed since Jan 09?

Not enough?

"If you're gonna play the game boy ... you gotta play it right."

 

[Annie]

I wonder how ACORN's employee numbers have changed since Jan 09?

Not enough?

"If you're gonna play the game boy ... you gotta play it right."

Just see SEIU...

 

[KittenKoder]

I wonder how ACORN's employee numbers have changed since Jan 09?

Not enough?

"If you're gonna play the game boy ... you gotta play it right."

Just see SEIU...

Would explain a lot. Does prove one of my points (like I needed more proof) politicians, no matter what party, what promises, or what culture, are interested in nothing but getting our money into their wallets.

 

[Xenophon]

Eventually the numbers will hit that, fairly soon too as companies look to dump people before the holiday bonuses kick in.

 

[Polk]

Then tell them to make the products better. It's a simple formula that drives capitalism ... good product .... affordable cots .... equals more sales .... bad product ... at too high a price ... equals no sales.

Do you mean to say that forcing an auto manufacturer to pay Union wages of $70K+ per year plus Cadillac level bennies for unskilled or at best medium skilled labor does not lead to lower product prices?

Except that they're not being paid 70k a year. The number is oft repeated... and completely made up.

 

[Single Dad]

Then tell them to make the products better. It's a simple formula that drives capitalism ... good product .... affordable cots .... equals more sales .... bad product ... at too high a price ... equals no sales.

Do you mean to say that forcing an auto manufacturer to pay Union wages of $70K+ per year plus Cadillac level bennies for unskilled or at best medium skilled labor does not lead to lower product prices?

Except that they're not being paid 70k a year. The number is oft repeated... and completely made up.

Please tell us how much UAW workers are earning. You may provide both veteran and newbie pay levels. (They are different per recent contract negotiations with the big 3) My cousin works as a UAW veteran line worker and is making more than $70K/year before any OT. Please provide your facts / links.

 

[Care4all]

More Unemployed People = More People On The Public Dole(s) = More Democrat Votes


It's all part of the Socialist plan people. There are no surprises here.

is unemployment the "public dole" ? I thought employers pay a fee that covers those that they lay off, the unemployed?

Also, do you really believe all the republicans laid off and on to the public dole, will vote democratic next time because of it?