INDY @ OKC

[leftwinger]

Some Opening odds: INDY 7:1 to win G1. Bet $100 each way. If true win net $500 no matter the total. Or lose $200 lol!

 

[odanny]

I've played a lot of prop bets in the playoffs, and they are killing me. I'm betting the series goes 4-2 at +115.

 

[MarathonMike]

If was still betting, I would take the moneyline on OKC every game for a large amount. I know, boring but a much better chance of making a profit than all the "fun" bets the Sports Books use to tempt you.

 

[leftwinger]

If was still betting, I would take the moneyline on OKC every game for a large amount. I know, boring but a much better chance of making a profit than all the "fun" bets the Sports Books use to tempt you.

I do that in more in football. Won a lot on KC, OSU etc. that way.

Sometimes take a flyer on four heavy favorites parlay with one college or one NFL over/under to jack the payback. Then you can bet less risk to win same.

If you bet -110 all the time you need to hit 6 or 7 every 10 to break even. Do it all season on KC....they go 13-3? But sometimes they were -800 or more? It is hard anywhere any sport betting.

The gimmick bet above above only works if you sure road dog will win. I won't do it? 8.5points maybe but that is not much.

I dont like points as much in BBALL as it is 2-3 buckets or miss free throw or run out last 1:30 needing one point. Can be Maddening! Wachting it.

 

[MarathonMike]

I do that in more in football. Won a lot on KC, OSU etc. that way.

Sometimes take a flyer on four heavy favorites parlay with one college or one NFL over/under to jack the payback. Then you can bet less risk to win same.

If you bet -110 all the time you need to hit 6 or 7 every 10 to break even. Do it all season on KC....they go 13-3? But sometimes they were -800 or more? It is hard anywhere any sport betting.

The gimmick bet above above only works if you sure road dog will win. I won't do it? 8.5points maybe but that is not much.

I dont like points as much in BBALL as it is 2-3 buckets or miss free throw or run out last 1:30 needing one point. Can be Maddening! Wachting it.

My point is, if you look at Sports betting as entertainment, that's fine as long as you never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you look at Sports betting as a way to actually make a profit you have to have a much more controlled approach which for most bettors is not "fun".

 

[leftwinger]

Say you bet $100 ten times on big favorites. They will be -250 to -4000. You don’t win much. Then if even 1 goes bad you are down. KC once lost to OAK on XMAS day by 30pts? As huge favorite. Can tear up a seasons work for many. I lost on that one of course.

It is not easy. Odds are so bad in sure things. OKC is favored -420 right now.

You're right. Right now I just play around trying to find a method. Lol!

 

[MarathonMike]

Say you bet $100 ten times on big favorites. They will be -250 to -4000. You don’t win much. Then if even 1 goes bad you are down. KC once lost to OAK on XMAS day by 30pts? As huge favorite. Can tear up a seasons work for many. I lost on that one of course.

It is not easy. Odds are so bad in sure things. OKC is favored -420 right now.

You're right. Right now I just play around trying to find a method. Lol!

Definitely not easy! That's why the Sports books are swimming in money.

 

[leftwinger]

It takes courage to bet $1000 to win $100. Yeah sure, most big favorites win? I look at it and think, "that's the only way to gain" reliably.

But miss just one, you are $1000 in the hole. Your last 9 $100 winners just got wiped out. Assuming all big favorites are -1000. But they move all over.

 

[leftwinger]

INDY up to 8:1 + over/under 232. That means more money has been flowing to OKC perhaps? They adjust odds to attract more on INDY so they win something? no matter what happens….

 

[leftwinger]

 

[leftwinger]

INDY can outshoot OKC but OKC plays better defense? Either team winning games or series would not surprise me.

If OKC puts Caruso on Siakem or Haliburton and the league (refs) allow him to foul them up & down the court (like they allowed him to do on Jocick) OKC wins?

 

[leftwinger]

I not buying the small market BS the dirty media is trying to sell. If people won’t tune in because butt-hurt NY/BOS/LA are not in? HUH? They’d rather watch bad teams play bad basketball? Say what?

Maybe I could see it if NY was cheated out of advancement on a bad call in a game 7 deciding it all on dirty replay decision? Or something like that.

But Indy played better. Other than the buzzer beater 12’ bounce-in G1 lol! But NY was up 20 and messed the game up late. Should have closed it out.

Should NY fire the coach for that? Or over-using his starters? How bout mediocre play from (mediocre) overpaid players?

 

[MarathonMike]

It takes courage to bet $1000 to win $100. Yeah sure, most big favorites win? I look at it and think, "that's the only way to gain" reliably.

But miss just one, you are $1000 in the hole. Your last 9 $100 winners just got wiped out. Assuming all big favorites are -1000. But they move all over.

That's true, but the ONLY gamblers who make money go big when they have the advantage. Barring an SGA injury, I see no scenario that the Pacers win the series. So if OKC wins 4-3 you are up a few hundred bucks betting $1000 a game. Obviously much better if OKC wins in less games. Let's remember that if Halliburton doesn't hit his "Immaculate Brick" shot at the buzzer they might not even be in the Finals. They just aren't at the same level as OKC.

 

[leftwinger]

That's true, but the ONLY gamblers who make money go big when they have the advantage. Barring an SGA injury, I see no scenario that the Pacers win the series. So if OKC wins 4-3 you are up a few hundred bucks betting $1000 a game. Obviously much better if OKC wins in less games. Let's remember that if Halliburton doesn't hit his "Immaculate Brick" shot at the buzzer they might not even be in the Finals. They just aren't at the same level as OKC.

A 4-3 OKC win means you lay out $7000 total (7 bets). You get back ~$250x4 or ($1000 + $4000 bet) in total as OKC was currently -400 yesterday. Meaning you would be down $2000? If every game OKC was -400.

But if OKC -110 every game, you would get back ($900*4) = $3600 + $4000 bet winning $600? Is that right? Or the few bucks you mentioned. Correct.

Off top of my head. But we know game to game those odds move. It is never easy.

 

[leftwinger]

So youre right.
A pro with lot of mobey to burn could win a little bit depending on odds. Yes I agree. I thought similar for NFL. But I can't get courage to risk so much repeatedly. Then the refs, FG donks off upright from 26yds. UzgH!

 

[MarathonMike]

A 4-3 OKC win means you lay out $7000 total (7 bets). You get back ~$250x4 or ($1000 + $4000 bet) in total as OKC was currently -400 yesterday. Meaning you would be down $2000? If every game OKC was -400.

But if OKC -110 every game, you would get back ($900*4) = $3600 + $4000 bet winning $600? Is that right? Or the few bucks you mentioned. Correct.

Off top of my head. But we know game to game those odds move. It is never easy.

Yes, you are right I wasn't thinking about the odds correctly.

 

[leftwinger]

Yes, you are right I wasn't thinking about the odds correctly.

You are right. Betting big on heavy solid favotrites is probably the only way to come out ahead in the long run. Yet….an upset can mess you up.

Chasing longshot parlay bets is crazy hard too. It’s all hard. They must have 1000 4.0 MIT math majors writing software to set odds automatically moving at GHZ every bet site. Every time they make or miss a shot, odds star moving on player props too.

Somebody is working hard in there. I have seen a possible chink in the armor is “why” odds are adjusting via computer. They adjust automatically, but maybe you see it is due to one player sitting out and call BS as he is soon coming back? Or a ref is apparently going to have to do make up calls?

 

[leftwinger]

WOW 61% like INDY+9.5? I never have been big fan of points in NBA. Unless betting LIVE and both teams show they have the capability to stay close....then the odds change. But You can wait for the other team to go up to -7 or something and jump in.

This is only 3-3pt shots and one free throw. Can happen in 1 min easily late in games.

 

[MarathonMike]

The matchup I'll be watching is Dort on Halliburton.

 

[leftwinger]

The matchup I'll be watching is Dort on Halliburton.

They split the last two games but 1 year apart. OKC scored 132 and won by 21 in the 2025 game.
Siakam on Holmgren or Caruso?