Ukraine Is Already Paying Us Back
- Thread starter Litwin
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LordBrownTrout
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LordBrownTrout
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Litwin
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Ukrainian Insurgent Army - Wikipedia
JohnDB
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F-15 or F-16 jets would not be a good idea at the moment.
These jets have a steep learning curve and take at least 8 months of training (crash courses really) to master the thing.
So even if we started today....their pilots wouldn't be ready until October.
Bradleys, tanks, and etcetera are complicated enough that these require 3 months to learn to use. These ain't like your daddy's truck to drive. Nevermind the fancy equipment that they have. (Ukranians have been being trained....shhh....big secret here)
So I don't think that these will be good pieces for them. Also....teeth to tail ratios in Ukraine are not ideal for the maintenance on these things. Most of the equipment has to be hauled to Poland now for repairs. That's literally crossing the entire country to be fixed or get the oil changed.
These jets have a steep learning curve and take at least 8 months of training (crash courses really) to master the thing.
So even if we started today....their pilots wouldn't be ready until October.
Bradleys, tanks, and etcetera are complicated enough that these require 3 months to learn to use. These ain't like your daddy's truck to drive. Nevermind the fancy equipment that they have. (Ukranians have been being trained....shhh....big secret here)
So I don't think that these will be good pieces for them. Also....teeth to tail ratios in Ukraine are not ideal for the maintenance on these things. Most of the equipment has to be hauled to Poland now for repairs. That's literally crossing the entire country to be fixed or get the oil changed.
toomuchtime_
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What's the rush? Ukraine appears to be resolute in its determination to take back all of its country from the invaders and Ukraine's allies appear to be even more resolute now than they were last year to help them, and Russia appears unlikely to withdraw any time soon, so there is no reason to think this war will end in 2023 or even in 2024, so the training times are irrelevant.
Even if by some miracle Russia should agree to withdraw, no one would trust Russia to abide by the agreement so Ukraine would need these weapons and more to keep the peace, so the US and others should begin making preparations for the transfer of F-16's and modern battle tanks and should begin immediately begin training experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots and tanks crews and maintenance technicians to operate and maintain them.
JohnDB
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Actually we tend to follow NATO standards with the equipment that they are given. Meaning mostly defensive munitions and a very few pieces of offensive equipment.
For Ukraine the German tanks and USA Bradleys as well as the HIMARS and a few other different pieces are more than enough. The Abrams tanks tend to be too heavy and need to much maintenance to be very effective. Meaning there are too many bridges they can't cross...
Ukraine is used to cobbling together Russian tanks from all the broken ones. But Russia isn't exactly willing to sell Ukraine or the US any tank parts.
toomuchtime_
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There are no NATO standards concerning offensive weapons. What Ukraine needs depends on what the goals are. If the goal is to drive the Russian invaders from Ukraine then Ukraine needs modern main battle tanks like the Abrams and F-16's. The Abrams is heavy, a fuel hog and requires high maintenance - all solvable problems - but it is one of the most powerful and safest tanks in the world, and will serve the Ukrainian military well when they begin their counteroffensive.
JohnDB
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Well the maintenance techs aren't trained on how to do much with them yet....they can't be.
The more complicated a complex system is the longer it takes to instantly diagnose where the trouble is.
Like a dropped neutral in a motor control cabinet....and you can't install a transformer just to have the new neutral. It doesn't work like that on a tank. You gotta find the real culprit and solve the problem. And considering the abuse of warfare and jarheads....it will take some time for the techs to become proficient and not take a shortcut workaround.
toomuchtime_
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Well, you just explained to them what to watch out for, so problem solved.
Kruska
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The military part isn't really the issue in order for NATO and Ukraine to win this war, since there is enough hardware to be sold or given in the next few years - but $$ and therefore the necessary political will.
There are numerous elections in Europe and NATO states in the coming 2-3 years - that will have a far more decisive impact on this war then military support.
If NATO decides to continue this war it will cost trillions of $$ (not just military hardware - but mostly economic/financial humanitarian support - especially in view of entirely having to rebuild the infrastructure of Ukraine, which alone will take more then 20 years. I am not sure if anyone in the EU or NATO is actually realistically aware that this is going to be by far the most $$ challenging task - the EU and NATO ever took on in their entire history. I would even go as far as to say the most challenging $$ task in Human mankind's history in regards to paying the bills for another country.
toomuchtime_
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Let's not get sucked into Putin's morass of lies about this war being between Russia and NATO or between Russia and the US. NATO is not fighting this war nor is it providing any material support to Ukraine's warm effort. Many NATO member states on their own initiative are supporting Ukraine, but the war is strictly between Russia and Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine along with its violations of nuclear treaties, its heavy investment in deploying hypersonic missiles to try to gain an edge in a nuclear war, its frequent threats to use nuclear weapons not only in Ukraine but against the UK and Germany. its demands that NATO withdraw from eastern Europe makes it clear that Russia is a clear and present danger to Europe and the US and that no diplomatic end of this war will bring a lasting peace. As a result, support for Ukraine continues to grow stronger and is in no danger of slackening off in the foreseeable future.
Ringo
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JohnDB
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Every anti tank missile is $100,000 dollars at a 5 million to 15 million dollar vehicle.
War is stupid expensive.
Sure the EU is going to pay a lot for this war....but in terms of investment Russia can't afford to economically fight the EU.
If Russia pays over half of its GDP for a war....it's going to go bankrupt over it. Especially when it's destroying the very infrastructure they wished to steal.
JohnDB
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Russia is much more capable than Ukraine of having a protracted war in many ways. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries. But this NATO aide is helping them financially.
Russia also has a larger army. But Ukranians have a better tooth to tail ratios. Even though Russia's tooth to tail ratios is too efficient. (Farmers can naturally fight longer and harder)
Now where Russia has been and will continue to make gains is in the use of cannon fodder. These are the conquered conscripted crimeans and prisoners used to make Ukraine expend ammunition and lives while the real Russian soldiers wait for the other side to be exhausted before engaging. (Dead conscripted soldiers don't have to be paid...and they either fight or get executed)
This tactic is diabolical but really smart in that it creates dilemmas for Ukraine. (Russians aren't stupid....just amoral)
And so it's going to come down to resources and whether Ukrainians can use more guerrilla warfare tactics to disrupt Russian logistics sufficiently while maintaining their own front lines better.
I don't see it ending well for Ukraine....but with the latest arrest of an oligarch for war profiteering....they got a good shot.
Litwin
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not for Ukraine but for the Liberal Order, I dont think so, Muscovite empire has lost all big wars in the second part of 19c / 1917 . so we broke the Moscow horde many times before, and we are gonna do it again
Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
JohnDB
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Afghanistan is a good example of how this is going to go....
Ukraine is good at guerrilla tactics like Afghanistan. Better than Russia is at repelling such attacks.
Ukraine is destroying all infrastructure as they slowly concede ground. (They have lost the high ground in the area of the front lines)
Unless something drastic happens Bakhmut is a lost cause.
Winning a purrhic war isn't what Russia expected or wanted. Holding that ground in the future isn't really going to work either. That includes Crimea...especially since Russia has been using Crimeans as cannon fodder.
I see Russia abandoning Donbas and Crimea as they did Afghanistan after a long protracted war over dirt and rock with Nothing to show for the trillions they are spending to take the ground and the continuing hostilities for years to come...
(Mortars are a bitch)
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