Uh oh. Is the new BLS person going to be shown the door too?

[buckeye]

How about half a million? Does that scream nefarious?

Over what period of time?

 

[Marener]

Yes and no.

Yes, I did vote for Trump, no, I don't always support him.

Not afraid to call him on his bulls**t when it's warranted. Just because you vote for a guy doesn't necessarily mean you walk in lockstep with him. Remember that.

Well, it’s Trump that is creating hardships for the economy.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Well, it’s Trump that is creating hardships for the economy.

Like I said elsewhere, you focus on the splash and the ripples the rock makes, but not the idea the water will calm itself over time.

Our economy will adapt.

 

[Marener]

Like I said elsewhere, you focus on the splash and the ripples the rock makes, but not the idea the water will calm itself over time.

Our economy will adapt.

Yes, the economy will find a new equilibrium.

With slower growth, less employment and decreased market returns.

 

[Winston]

Over what period of time?

A year.

 

[Crepitus]

There's a difference between those who actually have bad news and those who engineer it.

So did the last guy actually have bad news or did he engineer it?

Because this kinda backs those number up.

 

[struth]

First quarter growth was -0.5%

No it wasn’t

Why do you lie?

It was not negative.

 

[struth]

How in the world do you know the gdp growth for 2025 yet?

 

[berg80]

Labor market growth slows dramatically in August with U.S. adding just 54,000 jobs, ADP says​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/04/adp-jpb-data-august-2025.html

This is a private company payroll report, not the official government numbers. But it doesn't bode well for job growth.

What it does bode well for is a rate cut.

 

[Winston]

No it wasn’t

Why do you lie?

It was not negative.

 

[struth]

It grew at only .5 percent

US first-quarter GDP: Economy shrank 0.5% amid trade policy uncertainty | Fox Business

The Commerce Department on Thursday released its third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter and found the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.5%.

www.foxbusiness.com

It was not negative, but a very small growth coming out of the xiden admin.

Your graph is not updated

 

[Winston]

It grew at only .5 percent

US first-quarter GDP: Economy shrank 0.5% amid trade policy uncertainty | Fox Business

The Commerce Department on Thursday released its third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter and found the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.5%.

www.foxbusiness.com

It was not negative, but a very small growth coming out of the xiden admin.

Your graph is not updated

shrank

1. past simple of shrink 2. past simple of shrink 3. past simple of shrink

dictionary.cambridge.org

 

[berg80]

You know there was a lot of pull forward in economic activity in Q2 due to preparation for the tariffs, right?

 

[Hafar1014]

Job opening data falls to levels rarely seen since pandemic​

Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the labor market.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020.

Wednesday’s print was the lowest since September 2024, when just over 7.1 million openings were reported. Outside of that blip lower last year, these job opening levels were last seen when the pandemic was causing an upheaval of the U.S. economy and labor force.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/job-opening-data-falls-to-levels-rarely-seen-since-pandemic.html

It must be hard to find someone to report numbers Don likes. He may have to break out the Sharpie.

Its government job cuts and deportations which is good thing

 

[Winston]

You know there was a lot of pull forward in economic activity in Q2 due to preparation for the tariffs, right?

Yes, which doesn't bode well for Q3.

 

[Winston]

Its government job cuts and deportations which is good thing

Table 3. Total separations levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted - 2025 M12 Results

www.bls.gov

Those are the job separation numbers. 200,000 more federal jobs eliminated than last year, 200,000 less state jobs eliminated than last year. That is a wash.

As to deportations, wouldn't that make more jobs available? You know, Americans flocking to take those jobs and employers struggling to replace those deported. That isn't in the numbers either.

 

[Hafar1014]

Table 3. Total separations levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted - 2025 M12 Results

www.bls.gov

Those are the job separation numbers. 200,000 more federal jobs eliminated than last year, 200,000 less state jobs eliminated than last year. That is a wash.

As to deportations, wouldn't that make more jobs available? You know, Americans flocking to take those jobs and employers struggling to replace those deported. That isn't in the numbers either.

It does but it takes time for the transition from government debt based economy o private sector wealth economy. One benefit is wages have gone up as illegals are deported.

 

[Winston]

It does but it takes time for the transition from government debt based economy o private sector wealth economy. One benefit is wages have gone up as illegals are deported.

That is not showing up in the numbers either.

Wage Growth Tracker

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.7 percent in February from 3.6 percent the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker also edged up in February, to 3.6 percent, while for those changing jobs the Tracker held steady at 4.7 percent.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[Hafar1014]

That is not showing up in the numbers either.

Wage Growth Tracker

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.7 percent in February from 3.6 percent the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker also edged up in February, to 3.6 percent, while for those changing jobs the Tracker held steady at 4.7 percent.

www.atlantafed.org

Average hourly wage growth has exceeded inflation for 12 straight months, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data released this morning. This real (or inflation-adjusted) wage growth is a key indicator of how well the average worker’s wage can improve their standard of living. As inflation continues to normalize, I’m optimistic more workers will experience real gains in their purchasing power.

 

[Winston]

Average hourly wage growth has exceeded inflation for 12 straight months, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data released this morning. This real (or inflation-adjusted) wage growth is a key indicator of how well the average worker’s wage can improve their standard of living. As inflation continues to normalize, I’m optimistic more workers will experience real gains in their purchasing power.

That is not what the chart says. Negative in December and April, zero in September, January, February, and June. Getting excited over a .1% hourly wage increase is really kind of sad.