U.S. Troops Have Been Secretly Training Taiwan's Military...I am sure CHINA is SO SCARED!

[Mushroom]

This thread will be interesting to revisit.

Not really.

One thing is painfully obvious in almost all of these threads, the majority who are spouting off things have no understanding of the military, or true military considerations. They are really trying to scream over and over their own political beliefs, only hiding it as a military topic.

And as such, they are usually fools.

I would say 80% of the topics here in the "military" section are exactly that. People screaming their politics over and over, who simply think that somehow involving the military makes it valid.

 

[Silver Cat]

Once again, completely ignoring that Taiwan would not be defending itself alone. Australia, Japan, South Korea, as well as the US, and most of Europe and the UK Commonwealth would also be jumping in to help defend it (and a good chance Vietnam and Philippines and even India as well). What, you honestly think it would be just the PRC and ROC?

As I said, you really do not think things like this through very well, do you?

Let me give you the reality.

Ok.
0. In our reality, Russia already said, that Taiwan is a part of People's Republic of China.

1. US and other international intelligence agencies detect the buildup of Chinese forces weeks in advance and the readying of their naval forces to put to sea towards Taiwan.

1. But they don't detect, that Russia also readying their forces and Emercom to fight a nuclear war, and sell some nuclear weapons to China.

2. UN and the International Community gives stern warnings that such will not be tolerated.

2. All atempts to make such warning in UN are blocked by Russia and China. Both Russia and China are declaring, that any possible conflict in Taiwan is the 'inner business of PRC' and no intervention will be tolerated.

3. As task force puts out to sea, US is already mobilizing all local assets to the region. Likely placing some US Naval assets between Taiwan and China, while most remain to the east.

3. CIA , finally, discover Russian preparation for a preventive nuclear strike. Biden have to decide
a) to start his own preparations to the preemptive nuclear strike, which can provoke Russian to further escalation, or
b) to step back and cancel preparations for a conventional war, or
c) to ignore Russian preparations (because 'the Russians won't attack first - it is unthinkable') and be still vulnerable.

Now either:

4. China backs down and goes home.

4b) the USA backs down and goes home, Taiwan lost hope and surrender.

Or:

4. China launches first attack. At which point it becomes an "open fire" zone. And all assets of Australia, US, England, and any other nations go to work on any Chinese forces they can.

4a) there is uncontrollable escalation, in which Russia, likely, attack first with a significant, but not overwhelming superiority. After the first nuclear exchange Russia had lost ten million people, China - fifty million people , the USA - one hundred million people. Taiwan either surrendered or scorched down.
4c) there is a 'sitting duck scenario', Russia eliminate 90% of the US nuclear arsenal and force Baiden to surrender (may be, even, unconditional surrender).

6. China gets a single wave into place (maybe). International cordon is placed around the island, destroying any PRC ships or aircraft that come close. Meanwhile, the 3rd Marine Division (Okinawa) as well as any other Marine assets (roughly 2 Regiments) as well as all other assets are mobilized to Taiwan to root out any Chinese that have managed to get ashore.
7. A radical change in the UN.

And how radical, will depend on what China does. I bet at a minimum, official recognition of Taiwan again. And that is the best of outcomes I could see for China. Absolute worst? Revocation of "Official Recognition and Status" as a member of the UN, and the seat and Veto Power being given back to Taiwan.

Your scenario is absolutely unacceptable for Russia, therefore, Russia won't allow it by any cost (including the cost of the nuclear war).

 

[Silver Cat]

They should be. Taking Taiwan would be much more difficult than some seem to imagine, AND attacking Taiwan would not end with Taiwan. China knows all this.

The war between PRC and ROC would be short and simple. But, it definitely will be a war between coalitions. And it's result depends on many conditions , first of all on the list of participants, their goals and bets.

 

[Mushroom]

Ok.
0. In our reality, Russia already said, that Taiwan is a part of People's Republic of China.

1. But they don't detect, that Russia also readying their forces

Just to start.

But they also know the International ramifications if China was to attack, and the fallout from other nations. I would expect them to remain neutral, but they are far to smart to get involved themselves. Do not forget that Iraq was an ally of theirs. But when Iraq attacked Kuwait and the International community went nuts, they were smart enough to shut up and do nothing. The International reaction would be the same here, and they once again would stay out. Especially as that is one of their weakest regions militarily. There is not a lot they could send to assist China even if they were stupid enough to do so.

Besides, what is in it for Russia even if they did get involved? It's not like they are going to spend billions in military operations for another country, and get nothing in return out of it. And don't even try to say China would pay them. They know if they took an active role, the exact same International condemnation would fall upon them as well.

And it is a hell of a lot easier to hide troop movements on the ground than you are talking about here. Because you can't hide that kind of buildup, and the preparation of the ships. That is why for concealing naval operations, you mostly hide where exactly they are going, not if they are going at all or not.

D-day is a classic example of that. The Allied forces never hid that they were amassing for an attack, that was pointless. So instead they hid the destination of the attack, so the Germans thought Normandy was a feint and Calais would be the true landing. China can't do the same thing, any large force building up can only have one target in mind.

And the PLAN is the weakest link in the Chinese military by far. Very little experience, almost no real training in operating as a fleet. Which when it comes time for an engagement will be brought painfully home to them. As once again you throw out half-baked political nonsense, as I am discussing factual military issues. Because you can't hide things like ships preparing to put out to sea, or being at their berths one day, then gone the next.

 

[Mushroom]

The war between PRC and ROC would be short and simple. But, it definitely will be a war between coalitions. And it's result depends on many conditions , first of all on the list of participants, their goals and bets.

That would be simple.

China, against most of the world. They are aware of that, and why they have not tried it in 70 years. On their side, they might have a few mouth flappers speak their support (North Korea, Venezuela). But none would be willing or able to actually take an active role. And it was not all that long ago that Libya was a major opponent of the US for decades. And they had been supporting Iraq for many years.

Yet in both 1990 and 2003, the leader of that county told Saddam multiple times he had no chance, and to quit before it was to late. It is not that he liked the US, but he did respect the power of the US military. Having learned first hand how there was nothing he could do against it.

 

[Silver Cat]

Just to start.

But they also know the International ramifications if China was to attack, and the fallout from other nations. I would expect them to remain neutral, but they are far to smart to get involved themselves. Do not forget that Iraq was an ally of theirs. But when Iraq attacked Kuwait and the International community went nuts, they were smart enough to shut up and do nothing. The International reaction would be the same here, and they once again would stay out. Especially as that is one of their weakest regions militarily. There is not a lot they could send to assist China even if they were stupid enough to do so.

First - Russia is already considering the USA as an enemy, and Russia hardly can allow China to lose the war. Therefore - they definitely will be involved. At least there will be diplomatic, economical, informational support and some 'volunteers' (with commercial-aviable weapon). More likely - there will be significant conventional and nuclear support and provocations to cause a limited nuclear war between the USA and China, which will be finished with China's victory. In the worst (but still very possible) case they may decide that it is the best time for their own counter-force attack against the USA.

Besides, what is in it for Russia even if they did get involved? It's not like they are going to spend billions in military operations for another country, and get nothing in return out of it. And don't even try to say China would pay them. They know if they took an active role, the exact same International condemnation would fall upon them as well.

Sure, China will pay them. Taiwan is a rich island, potential profit is really significant. But the fall of the USA (as a political and military power) would be priceless. Condemnation? What condemnation? Russia has annexed two regions of an European state, and nobody cares. China violated the terms of Hongkong reunion, and nobody cares.

And it is a hell of a lot easier to hide troop movements on the ground than you are talking about here. Because you can't hide that kind of buildup, and the preparation of the ships. That is why for concealing naval operations, you mostly hide where exactly they are going, not if they are going at all or not.

D-day is a classic example of that. The Allied forces never hid that they were amassing for an attack, that was pointless. So instead they hid the destination of the attack, so the Germans thought Normandy was a feint and Calais would be the true landing. China can't do the same thing, any large force building up can only have one target in mind.

What is even more easier - is to conceal your preparations for the limited nuclear strike, especially if your enemy is wishful thinking and blinding himself with the words like 'unthinkable'.

And the PLAN is the weakest link in the Chinese military by far. Very little experience, almost no real training in operating as a fleet. Which when it comes time for an engagement will be brought painfully home to them. As once again you throw out half-baked political nonsense, as I am discussing factual military issues. Because you can't hide things like ships preparing to put out to sea, or being at their berths one day, then gone the next.

And what did they tell in 1941? 'There will be no American Port-Arthur, because the fleet was moved from San Diego to naturally protected Pearl Harbor'?
But even this statement is more sober and reasonable, that yours 'The Russians won't attack the USA, because they afraid international sanctions'.

 

[Mushroom]

First - Russia is already considering the USA as an enemy, and Russia hardly can allow China to lose the war. Therefore - they definitely will be involved.

That was all I needed to read.

Do you really think that the Russians are willing to face an International Embargo, for China? Don't make me laugh.

Imagine if England decided it wanted to reunify Ireland, and all under their direct rule. How many countries do you think would support that? Even the US would be going "Oh hell no, you are on your own here, bro!".

Russia has absolutely nothing to gain in supporting China in aggressive action against Taiwan. And everything to lose.

Once again, you seem to grasp nothing and are only trying to claim what you would want to believe. But look back through history, and show me an example of that. Good luck though. Countries only support each other if they have something to gain. France and Spain in the US Revolution for example. In this scenario however, Russia gains nothing. No territory (unlike their agreement with Germany). No cessation of war (as with Japan). They get literally nothing. But gain the animosity of most of the world.

No, you are no more important than the spewings of Litwin. Just saying things that mean nothing, the silly beliefs of your own with no basis in reality.

 

[Mushroom]

'There will be no American Port-Arthur, because the fleet was moved from San Diego to naturally protected Pearl Harbor'?

The fleet did not move from San Diego to Pearl Harbor. You seem to have absolutely no understanding of the situation the US was responding to and how it was doing it. Throwing out silly nonsense, with absolutely no historical context.

Battleships were being moved forward, as was common globally in that era. If Japan had not attacked until Spring 1942, they would have faced much more resistance because the US was "moving forward". Hawaii at first, more and more being sent to forward bases (Philippines, Midway, Wake, Guam) than had been seen before. Japan attacked at the very start of that. When the very first movements were being made. And mostly Battleships, as at that time every country in the world thought that was what would win naval battles.

 

[Silver Cat]

The fleet did not move from San Diego to Pearl Harbor. You seem to have absolutely no understanding of the situation the US was responding to and how it was doing it. Throwing out silly nonsense, with absolutely no historical context.

Battleships were being moved forward, as was common globally in that era. If Japan had not attacked until Spring 1942, they would have faced much more resistance because the US was "moving forward". Hawaii at first, more and more being sent to forward bases (Philippines, Midway, Wake, Guam) than had been seen before. Japan attacked at the very start of that. When the very first movements were being made. And mostly Battleships, as at that time every country in the world thought that was what would win naval battles.

Please, read W. D. Puleston, The Armed Forces of the Pacific, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1941, pp 116-117.:
------------
The greatest danger from Japan, a surprise attack on the unguarded Pacific Fleet, lying at anchor in San Pedro Harbor, under peacetime conditions, has already been averted. The Pacific Fleet is at one of the strongest bases in the world- Pearl Harbor-practically on a war footing and under a war regime. There will be no American Port Arthur.
-------------
Experts knew about possibility of the surprise attack, but successfully ignored it. But, of course, they thought more sober and realistically than you.

 

[Silver Cat]

That was all I needed to read.

Do you really think that the Russians are willing to face an International Embargo, for China? Don't make me laugh.

There was no International Embargo in the case of Crimea annexation. Even Ukraine continues their trade with Russia, and Russia still their most important trading partner.

Russia has absolutely nothing to gain in supporting China in aggressive action against Taiwan. And everything to lose.

They can win, at least, some money (for their weapon and volunteers), they can win Chinese support in the further retaking of Hokkaido and Northern Honshu, or they can even eliminate the American Treat and improve their international position.
Anyway, any military conflict (per se) will raise energy demand and, therefore - the gas and oil prices.

 

[skye]

U.S. Troops Have Been Secretly Training Taiwan's Military...I am sure CHINA is SO SCARED!​

Yeah, the Chinese are shaking in their boots.

 

[Silver Cat]

Just for information.
China Maritime Report No. 15: The New Chinese Marine Corps: A "Strategic Dagger" in a Cross-Strait Invasion.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Chinese aggression toward Taiwan testing US resolve in wake of Afghanistan withdrawal, experts say

Recent aggression toward Taiwan by the Chinese communist regime shows that Beijing is looking to test the resolve of the Biden administration, particularly in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, experts tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

Yea....China is a shivering *****....just so frightened of TAIWAN.

 

[Silver Cat]

Chinese aggression toward Taiwan testing US resolve in wake of Afghanistan withdrawal, experts say

Recent aggression toward Taiwan by the Chinese communist regime shows that Beijing is looking to test the resolve of the Biden administration, particularly in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, experts tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

Yea....China is a shivering *****....just so frightened of TAIWAN.

They are frightened of the USA. That's why they are seeking a military alliance with Russia.

 

[ColonelAngus]

They are frightened of the USA. That's why they are seeking a military alliance with Russia.

Of course.

That is exactly my entire point.

China is not afraid of TAIWAN ARMY REGULARS.

And now they are MUCH less afraid of the USA than before their pawn was in the White House.

 

[Ringo]

Biden muttered that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily in the event of "Chinese aggression," but the White House quickly corrected the senile, saying that the American strategy, which mainly provides for the supply of weapons to Taiwan in case of an emergency, remains unchanged

 

[skye]

Biden's Military is going to help Taiwan fight China with this.


And yes, China must be totally distraught.

 

[Ringo]

Fox News: "The US is completely and most pathetically dependent on China"

This is important in understanding the current situation. The need for Chinese-made goods among Westerners is so great that China today does not allow the West to deploy the pre-war mobilization of the economy for war with China