Annie
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This reflects what I see as possible, I would say I'm even more pessimistic than the writer, but I hope we are both wrong:
http://gloriasalt.blogspot.com/2005/08/two-scenarios.html
http://gloriasalt.blogspot.com/2005/08/two-scenarios.html
http://gloriasalt.blogspot.com/2005/08/two-scenarios.html
http://gloriasalt.blogspot.com/2005/08/two-scenarios.html
18 August 2005
Two Scenarios
All right. The evacuation of Gaza is now a fact. Its not over yet, and there are plenty of (figurative) landmines yet to be avoided, but the withdrawal is the new reality. The question is, what's going to happen now?
Maybe it'll go something like this. The Palestinians of Gaza, flush with an exhilarating sense of opportunity, discover that they can indulge in a new, unexpectedly sweet luxury: thinking about Israelis as something other than the enemy. Theyre proud of their role as the spearhead of Palestinian independence, but are well aware that the example they set will be as carefully observed by their fellow Palestinians in the West Bank as it will by the Israelis. They define success as swift, tangible improvement in the daily life of all Gazans, something they hope will soon be enjoyed by Palestinians throughout the West Bank. They see the withdrawal as a chance to assert their dignity as a nation that wants to construct a viable futurea nation that loves life, in other words, and has had enough of the romance of a future-stealing culture of death.
They are not afraid to exult in this new opportunity. They know that the majority of Israelis want an end to the troubles and are willing to consign their shock and disappointment at the second intifada to historysomething they can do only if the withdrawal from Gaza is shown to have been a success. Palestinian Gazans are not afraid that their state will stop in Gazathey know that that will happen only if they are short-sighted enough to turn the Israeli withdrawal into an obvious mistake. They want to encourage the Israelis to withdraw from other areas, and recognize that the best way to do that is to give them reasons to celebrate this first evacuation.
Palestinian-Israeli joint ventures spring up. Academic cooperation and cultural exchanges flourish. Scholarships for one anothers students are established at Palestinian and Israeli universities. The Gazan elementary and high school curricula are revamped to weed out anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric. Gazans return to work in Israel, if that is their desire. Israelis are invited to contribute their expertise and assistance in the establishment of Palestinian-owned greenhouses, farms, and industries.
The Palestinian administration, meanwhile, demands strict adherence to the rule of law in Gaza, with consequences to those who disregard it and incentives for those to whom such a notion is simply unknown. Money that comes into Gaza from abroad will be strictly and transparently accounted for, and it will be used, in part, to lure young people who have been trained to believe they have no identity other than as haters of Israel toward more productive, forward-looking ways of life. Extremists who want a piece of that action are welcome, but there is a zero-tolerance policy toward any ex-extremist who disturbs the peace, either by targeting Palestinians or Israelis. Any extremist who refuses to disarm voluntarily will be disarmed forcibly and jailed in a Palestinian-Israeli state-of-the-art prison.
Things take off. The Americans and the Europeans fall all over one another to take credit for the success. Money pours in. David Beckham and a woman who does not appear to be Victoria are spotted at a trendy Gaza City cafe. An international film festival established in Gaza becomes a must-be-seen-there destination for Hollywood glitterati. Palestinian soccer and basketball teams compete regularly with Israeli teams and quickly become contenders on the European circuit. A Gazan cuisine materializes, spawning sleek, IM Pei-esque, high-priced eateries and down-home Umm-wa-Ab chowhouses.
And the Israeli majority, ecstatic with relief, pushes through the next phase of the withdrawal.
* * *
Or this could happen. The Palestinians of Gaza, flush with the satisfaction of having thrown out the Israelis, wonder what even more mortars and suicide belts might accomplish. They discover that they can now openly indulge a long-held fantasy: that they might eventually wipe the Israelis off the face of Palestine, from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. Theyre proud of their role as the spearhead of Palestinian independence, and want to show their fellow Palestinians in the West Bank that theres more where that came from. They define success as more Israeli concessions, satisfyingly wrung out of them through the language of Israeli entrails splattered on café walls the only language Israelis understand, after all (to which the Gaza withdrawal attests). They see the withdrawal as a chance to assert their dignity as an Arab nationa nation that rightly reviles its primal enemy and has had enough of this nonsense of a future beside the Jews.
The Palestinians are not afraid to exult in this new opportunity. They know the majority of Israelis are worn down by the endless violence, and they would be fools not to do everything in their power to exploit that weakness. But that exultation will be made manifest in machine-gun rallies and terrorist attacks, not in new electricity systems or better housing. The withdrawal must not on any account be allowed to become a practical success for regular Gazan citizens, since the Palestinian state would therefore stop in Gaza. They cant go soft, in other words meekly say thank you to the Jews for the ghetto theyve so magnanimously permitted the Palestinians to live in in their own country. The goal is to induce the Israelis to withdraw from the rest of it all the rest of it. The best way to do that is to give them good reasons to run like hell.
All existing Palestinian-Israeli joint ventures are immediately put down. Palestinian academics who cooperate with Israelis are gunned down in the street. Scholarships are established at Palestinian universities for the production of doctoral theses on the glory of suicide-bombing and on Holocaust denial. The Gazan elementary and high school curricula are revamped to incorporate more vitriolic anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric. Gazans who wish to return to work in Israel are threatened, kidnapped and murdered.
The Palestinian administration, meanwhile, is powerless to combat the extremists, who see no value in cultivating a relationship with people whose declared aim is to de-claw them at the behest of the enemy. Money flowing in from abroad is shunted, per tradition, to a handful of corrupt politicians whose concern for the Gazan man and woman on the street comes a distant second to the desire to put a marble floor in that villa. Said Gazan man and woman will see no material difference in their lives whatsoever now that the Israelis are gone, and the father will be just as unemployed as he was before. Their fifteen-year-old son, disgusted with the foolish idealism of his parents and with the dreary tedium of their lives, will cozy up to the boys hanging around the neighborhood with the great big guns. How bad can they be? Most of them are graduate students.
Things deteriorate. Intra-Palestinian violence skyrockets. Small numbers of Palestinians manage to infiltrate Israel on occasion, usually at a moment when the Israelis are contemplating a further territorial concession, and kill a few dozen civilians, thereby validating the dont-reward-terror argument of those Israelis who had opposed the Gaza withdrawal and putting any further withdrawal on indefinite hold. The flow of money from abroad, which had picked up dramatically when the Israelis left Gaza, dries up; even the Europeans start to use phrases like throwing good money after bad. Palestinian extremists, flush with Iranian ordnance brought in through the Egyptian crossing, expand their horizons by upping the destructive ante: they investigate infiltrating a suicide bomber with a chemical weapon, say, or a biological one. The argument against killing large numbers of Arabs along with Jews is no longer a hindrance a Gazan imam has declared that any Israeli Arab inadvertently murdered by a Palestinian fighting to reclaim his homeland will be given 36 almond-eyed virgins in paradise.
* * *
Which is it going to be? I dont think well see either of these extremes, but the needle on my barometer is tilting slightly toward the pessimistic. Its an exceptionally fragile situation. If things start well, it could pick up momentum, but the muscle-minority in the area wont be well-served by a smooth transition.
Well just have to wait and see.
posted by Gloria Salt @ 6:54 PM
