Turkey ready to enter northern Iraq

[ekrem]

ISTANBUL

The head of Turkey's military stated publicly in the sharpest language to date that he was ready to conduct military operations in northern Iraq to crush Kurdish rebels hiding there. The final decision, however, rests with Parliament, he said.
(...)
While the threat is not immediate and would require full approval from the country's diverse Parliament, it has grown more urgent, with Turkish politicians of all stripes calling for action. Nearly a dozen Turkish soldiers have been killed in clashes with Kurdish rebels in the past week, the Turkish authorities said.

"Should there be an operation into northern Iraq?" said Yasar Buyukanit, Turkey's chief of staff, at a surprise news conference in Ankara, his first since taking the position eight months ago. "From a solely militaristic point of view, yes, there should be."
(...)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/12/news/kurds.php



I will tell you what this means, just let us go 2 days back:
Last "National Security Council" meeting which went 4 hours had the result of a 3 staged action plan regarding Iraq.

Iraq was given a paper diplomatic note, as well as USA, where Turkey first time threatens to invade Iraq in an official state document.
Iraq has 2 Weeks time to jail and kill PKK-Terrorists. Turkey will watch this process and within 2 weeks the different stages of sanctions will begin.

- first phase is political sanctions
- second economic sanctions like cutting water, electric, gasoline, goods and shutting down Iraq boarder, and airspace to Iraq, so North-Iraq and rest of Iraq collapse.
- third phase is military action

read it here yourself what came out of "National security Meeting":
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=70529

2 Days later, meaning today, Turkish army made extraordinary press conference first since 14 months and first under new General chief.
Speech was structured in 5 parts. 2 Parts were about USA, Iraq and Terrorists and should be here of concern.

Turkish army openly for first time says operation into Iraq must be done, but therefore political environment must be ensured. Turkey is democracy with Institutions based on division of powers.
Army is an institution having rights and duties given by constitution.
So is the Institution "Parliament" which is responsible for legislative processes.
Army as Institution said first time, that operation must be made, and political environment must be ensured.
So ball is played to Parliament, which has to ensure legislative base of Invasion, as Army can not give self the order to invade Iraq,
Army, as institution, made first time this request since 1997 and since US invasion of Iraq.
Also this request is in accordance to 3rd stage of action plan of "National security council".

 

[dilloduck]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/12/news/kurds.php



I will tell you what this means, just let us go 2 days back:
Last "National Security Council" meeting which went 4 hours had the result of a 3 staged action plan regarding Iraq.

Iraq was given a paper diplomatic note, as well as USA, where Turkey first time threatens to invade Iraq in an official state document.
Iraq has 2 Weeks time to jail and kill PKK-Terrorists. Turkey will watch this process and within 2 weeks the different stages of sanctions will begin.

- first phase is political sanctions
- second economic sanctions like cutting water, electric, gasoline, goods and shutting down Iraq boarder, and airspace to Iraq, so North-Iraq and rest of Iraq collapse.
- third phase is military action

read it here yourself what came out of "National security Meeting":
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=70529

2 Days later, meaning today, Turkish army made extraordinary press conference first since 14 months and first under new General chief.
Speech was structured in 5 parts. 2 Parts were about USA, Iraq and Terrorists and should be here of concern.

Turkish army openly for first time says operation into Iraq must be done, but therefore political environment must be ensured. Turkey is democracy with Institutions based on division of powers.
Army is an institution having rights and duties given by constitution.
So is the Institution "Parliament" which is responsible for legislative processes.
Army as Institution said first time, that operation must be made, and political environment must be ensured.
So ball is played to Parliament, which has to ensure legislative base of Invasion, as Army can not give self the order to invade Iraq,
Army, as institution, made first time this request since 1997 and since US invasion of Iraq.
Also this request is in accordance to 3rd stage of action plan of "National security council".

Why quit after massacreing the Kurds---take the whole damn country.

 

[ekrem]

Why quit after massacreing the Kurds---take the whole damn country.

When USA can not peacefully occupation whole Iraq, then Turkey will also not.
But we can march through to Um-Qasr going fishing in Persian Gulf, like USA did fast marched to Bagdad. We have the capabilities.
Invasion and occupation is 2 different things.

First priority is Anti-Terrorist action. To be exact, Anti-Turkish terrorist elimination in the North. Locations are known. So 100.000 km² not like USA whole Iraq.
We can manage this easy.

Terrorists who bomb GI's more south in Tikrit-Falluja-Bagdad area not our business, like Terrorists who bomb Turks from northern Iraq is not USA business. This Barzani last days threatened Turkey saying he would stir unrest in Turkey.
General Büyükanit today in extraordinary press conference said: "I do not look to who says, but who let him say", giving reference to USA.

I wonder how US army's life will be around Bagdad when Gasonline, water, electric, Turkish airspace is closed. It is a 3 staged plan, with military option the third stage. All within 14 days.

 

[onedomino]

Turkey had its chance. Instead of helping the US with the overthrow of the brutal Saddam regime, it chose to block the US 4th Infantry Division from entering Iraq from the north in 2003. Thus the murderous insurgents had a greater ability to melt away north of Baghdad in the face of the US Marine and US Army assault from the south. If Turkey now enters northern Iraq, the Americans should repulse them. Despite the empty bluster of Yasar Buyukanit, do not doubt that the US will not permit a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq; unless, of course, Turkey would like to help us patrol the streets of Baghdad. But that will never happen.

 

[ekrem]

I question, how you will repulse Turkish army?
In North-Iraq is no US-soldiers.
It is real question, i know strength of USA army, also i know of extending GI service from 12 to 15 months and reaching capabilities of US army like Gates said.
I will not talk much about Turkish army, as you would see what i would tell now, when there is real shit going on and you have casualties, so US mothers wished their sons never hit ground near to Turkey.
Of course, Turkey will suffer damage, too. Even more damage then Turkey will make to USA.
This is no joke like Iraq, Iran, Somalia or Vietnam.

A USA-Turkey clash is not a normal event, but a event which will change things in Eurasia. Beginning with NATO. Has many implications. So we can tell much here.
In Turkey we do not expect clash with USA. Too much to loose for both.

You first try to find answer, where you find gasoline, water, electricity and other things in coming 14 days, and which airspace you use. When Turkey shuts airspace and boarder whole north will be shut down. Syria, Iran and Turkey.

Then when Turkish Army enters after this economic sanctions stage, you can detail further how many US soldiers will be redeployed from Bagdad to North, fighting Turkish soldiers, and how much losses US society is willing to declare as acceptable.

 

[onedomino]

No one wants an armed clash with Turkey, that's why your country should stay out if Iraq. Anyway, it would not be a clash of ground troops; imagining the consequences of fighting the US Air Force and Navy will keep your troops on their side of the border.

 

[actsnoblemartin]

this is a disgusting comment..

Why quit after massacreing the Kurds---take the whole damn country.

Turkey murdered 1.5 million armenians, and wont admit to it, and now opposes oppresed kurds who deserve a homeland. Oh, and they refused to help america, in the war on terrorism.

So, I say to turkey, Fuck You

 

[NATO AIR]

There have been an awful lot of Kurdish guerrilla attacks against the Turks as of late, coming from the Iraqi side of the border.

If the US had any concept of pre-emptive diplomacy, it would be trying to bring the Turks & Kurds into a "trust but verify" security relationship w/ a small contingent of US forces to accompany their joint patrols on the border.

There is a lot of money to be made for both sides. A pity neither will place that potential windfall and investment climate above national pride.

 

[ekrem]

(...)
There is a lot of money to be made for both sides. A pity neither will place that potential windfall and investment climate above national pride.

Financial capital has no nationality. Turkey is a private economy, so these companies due to maximize profits and turnover make business anywhere they want, despite colliding national interest.
So if there is no state decision in closeing boarder or anything, this will continue.

Turkey is a parliamentarian democracy. A Republic with powerfull Prime MInister and Vetoing or "Putting sign under laws"- State President.

Today was 1st round of presidential elections in parliament.
There is need of 367 parliamentarians out of total 550 to be in parliament in accordance to constitution articles.
Today there were only 361 parliamentarians in parliament due to boycott of other parliamentarians, so the whole thing of presidential election is now at constitutional court.

2nd round of presidential election is Wednesday. Constitutional Court president said, it will rush decision till there.
So when court says, 1st round was technically faulty, then parliament will be dissolved and Turkey heads to parliament elections immidiately to sructure new parliament and new Prime MInister which then will elect new State President.
Current State President, whose term ends in these days will be put in office till there is new State President.
Election Board (don't know what its american name is), says that election can be held withing 45 days.

As this procedure of 367 in parliamanent was not taken to court before in past State President elections, decision of constitutional court will constitute an binding example for constitution.

In Turkish time zone at 23:20 Turkish Army made statement, which will make process of constitutional court unnecessary.
Whole TVs despite being night time are fixed on interpreting the statement, all Journalists and Politicians are waken up on feets.
In International press so far there is not much reporting about this, if, then only selective.

The message of army is, that it might assume control of political power depending on further process of State president election. All opposition parties called before and still are calling for immidiate elections.
Last week there was a demonstration in Ankara with 583.000 particpiants.
On Sunday a bigger demonstration will happen in Istanbul Caglayan place.

Turkish army's message is also immidiate election. So election will either come through constitutional court, or by force of Army.

Now when we reconsider the thread topic in previous posts, that Army called for Parliamentarian legitimization of Iraq invasion, and Parliament so far did not follow this request, we will have soon have a new Parliament.
This what is happening right now in Turkey is fresh, so you will see what i mean when your press starts to report about this process in detail.

If Army takes control of political power or constitutional court will dissolve parliament and Turkey will not have a parliament for 45 days and only one State president, we will see your cheap talk of megalomania Americans like "onedomino" saying US Airforce will make Turkish army keep at its side of boarder.
We will kill anyone who tries to stop us.

http://www.tsk.mil.tr/bashalk/basac/2007/a08.htm

 

[actsnoblemartin]

Fuck Turkey, Go kurds!

 

[Gunny]

When USA can not peacefully occupation whole Iraq, then Turkey will also not.
But we can march through to Um-Qasr going fishing in Persian Gulf, like USA did fast marched to Bagdad. We have the capabilities.
Invasion and occupation is 2 different things.

First priority is Anti-Terrorist action. To be exact, Anti-Turkish terrorist elimination in the North. Locations are known. So 100.000 km² not like USA whole Iraq.
We can manage this easy.

Terrorists who bomb GI's more south in Tikrit-Falluja-Bagdad area not our business, like Terrorists who bomb Turks from northern Iraq is not USA business. This Barzani last days threatened Turkey saying he would stir unrest in Turkey.
General Büyükanit today in extraordinary press conference said: "I do not look to who says, but who let him say", giving reference to USA.

I wonder how US army's life will be around Bagdad when Gasonline, water, electric, Turkish airspace is closed. It is a 3 staged plan, with military option the third stage. All within 14 days.

Sure you can. Unless we say no. Then you can't.

 

[ekrem]

Tandogan meeting on 14. April was 583.000 Particpiants as Ankara Police announced.

Todays Caglayan meeting in Istanbul is even bigger. Demostration will pass 1 Mio barrier as TC channels report. Caglayan Place is full even extending to Galatsaray and Besiktas stadiums.

Here map of Demonstration area:
http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2007/04/29/son/sontur16.asp

Caglayan place is the area where the is a big red and 5 streets cometogether in the picture. So CNN and BBC report from there.

And here video:
http://video.milliyet.com.tr/m.swf?id=260&tarih=2006/12/11

 

[ekrem]

Caglayan Place 14:22 Turkish time:

To see flowing streets into Caglayan place:

Photos of area from bird view:
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/6428698.asp?gid=180

 

[ekrem]

More than a million attend Turkey rally: police

More than one million people are rallying in support of Turkish secularism and democracy amid a political crisis over presidential elections, police sources said Sunday.

Police officers at the scene of the mass demonstration in the European side of Istanbul told AFP that the crowd had swelled beyond a million people.
(...)
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=173630

 

[onedomino]

More than a million attend Turkey rally: police

More than one million people are rallying in support of Turkish secularism and democracy amid a political crisis over presidential elections, police sources said Sunday.

Police officers at the scene of the mass demonstration in the European side of Istanbul told AFP that the crowd had swelled beyond a million people.
(...)
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=173630

Glad to see Turkish support for secularism and democracy. Were there any counter demonstrations? Tell us about the political dynamics that set off the demonstration.

 

[ekrem]

Current legislative Government is in its 5th year with elections in normal term happening in November this year. So government of Prime Minister.

State President is another institution then Parliament. But Parliament elects State president, whose turn is for 7 years. So current government whose normal term will end in 5 months will elect a president who will even be there in current legislative turn, next 5 years of legislative turn of parliament, and again one other turn of legislative parliament.

So Opposition parties say, that next President must be elected by next parliament and current parliament has no legitimate right to elect president for 7 years and parliament must first be undergo election before it elects State President.

State president must be lected by 367 votes of 550 total Parliament.
Turkish election system has a barrier of 10%. This means, that Parties which do not get minimum 10% of total votes are represented in Parliament.
So if a Party gets 9,99% of total votes means you are not represented in Parliament.

So is it with current government, where only 2 Parties succeeded to pass 10% barrier. This 2 parties represent 53% of elected votes.
In last election about 31 Mio Turks voted, while possible 41 Mio had right to vote.
53% of representation is from these 31 Mio Turks.

When you take whole Population who had right to vote (41 Mio), you see that current 2 parties represent about 40% of Total Turkey.
The rest is outside of parliament.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Turkey#Next_election

This leads to a situation where a party like current Party who put Prime Minister in to office, gets 25% of total votes, 34 % of elected votes but has a Parliament share of about 68%.
This 68% makes them able to govern without coalition and pass any law they want without being dependent on other votes.
Because other parties who were under 10% barrier are not considered in parliament share.

Such party who represents majority in Parliament but not out of total votes put Prime Minister and Parliament President into office.
And now they even want to put State President into office.

In coming elections every poll in Turkey says, that minimum of 4 parties will pass 10% barrier.
This means, that minimum 70-80 % of total votes will be represented in next parliament. Und this circumstances a party which gets 34% of elected votes and 25% of possible votes will not get absolute majority in parliament forcing them to make coalition.

That it is what it is going on currently solely from legislative view. A government which knows, that it is a golden chance to elect a State president out of this unrepresentative parliament.


-------------------


The other component is, that current Government is rooted in islamic ideology.
Islamic is not Islamistic and even not Islamofascist.
EU, USA and international finance world support current government.
It was this government which achieved Copenhagen Criteria so that EU opened accession talks with Turkey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_criteria#Political_criteria
In whole there were passed 7 reform packets with hundreds of laws, including new Penal Code in which current government tried to implement its first and only Islamic legislative law in wanting to criminalize adultery. This passage of Penal code was removed due to pressure from other parties and social institutions.

Current Government has evolutioned out of "Refah Party"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refah_Partisi
which was forbidden in 1997. This was an Islamist Party, whilst i call them Islamist, this word has different meanings from view of an Arab, an Iranian and an American (Al-Qaeda Syndrome), a Turk and a German.

"Refah Partisi"'s is "Milli Görüs" movement which means "National View".
While "Milli Görüs" and its political mirror "Refah Partisi" was forbidden in Turkey, "Milli Görüs" is still allowed in Germany. So there are different definitions of Islamist in different countries. That you as Americans understand this with Al-Qaeda hype, i do not expect.

When "Milli Görüs" was forbidden in Turkey "Refah Party" politicians were banned from politics.
So current politicians of current government are in some part former politicians from "Refah party" and other sections of Turkish parties, which left their party to join current Government party.
So the ban of these politicians was lifted selectively on pragmatic and reformist politicians from "Refah party".
Others still have the politic ban, and this politic ban was upheld by the Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights on February 13, 2003.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refah_Partisi

Current government is committed to secularism and has fitted in Turkish realities.
And this convinceable, otherwise political ban would not have been lifted selectively. Under current government Military was dispowered from "National Security Government" so that this multi-institutional Institution has now an civil head. All this with goodwill of Army.

The statement of Army in these days was triggered by Parliamanent President (Nancy Peolsi function) who said that next State president will be a religious president. In secular state, attribute "being religious" can not be a condition of electing a president.
Turkish army sadi in its statement that it is a party in discussion about secularism in the State President elections.
Turkish Army did not object Gül (Foreign minister) as State President candidate.
Gül was announced as candidate on Tuesday, Turkish Army statement was on Friday following to Parliament President statements that a religious State president will be elected.

Turkish Army has nothing to do with current demonstrations going on. These are triggered by opposition parties and for example todays demonstration from over 500 civilian organizations.

And Muslim or Atheist has nothing to do with Pro or Anti USA.
Turkish Society in whole objects US politics, it was current government whose Parliamentarians voted overwelmingly yes for March Resolution of letting US Soldiers attack Iraq. It was strong-secularist CHP party in opposition whose parliamentarians voted completely no without exception. This is a fact.
It is also CHP demanding invasion into Iraq. Not even speaking of nationalist parties who are currently not represented in parliament but will be after next elections.

To your question if there are counter-demonstrations:
No there aren't current government tries currently to save its ass from Military and public pressure seeking help from EU, which it actually gets be it Barroso, Merkel or Rehn.
So current government thinks it can survive this legislative parliament period inclusive selecting the State president with support of EU. This will go to definative dissolveing of current government by Constitutional Court in next week.

What currently goes on is civilian pressure to political parties. We have over 20 of them. So votes are splitted like no what.
Mid-Right took right interpretation of what is currently going on and 2 strongest parties in Mid-Right (DYP+Anap) announced to fusion under new name of DBP.
Such negotiation going on also on Mid-Left side with CHP, SHP, DSP. Wich last 2 Partzies will join the first one.
Turkish Society is sick of corrupt politicians who make not politics but only think of them selves and use political arena for personal war.

Such event triggered 2001 economic crisis with minus 9% growth when in Government meeting current State President threw constitution book at former Preime Minister's head and he left government meeting and makeing desastrous statements to press:

Last Monday, Ecevit stormed out of a meeting with Sezer, enraged at the president's attack on the government for allegedly failing to stem corruption. Sezer reportedly threw a copy of the constitution at a government minister.

The meeting lit the fuse for the economic crisis. Shares fell sharply and overnight interest rates hit 7,000 percent as confidence in the government buckled.

In the early hours of Thursday morning, Turkey was forced to abandon exchange rate controls, a pillar of its IMF-backed stability program, and float its currency on free markets. Millions of Turks woke up Friday to find their savings and salaries had lost some 36 percent in value as the lira dived against the dollar.

http://media.www.bgnews.com/media/s...st.Of.Political.Economic.Crisis-1283243.shtml

And current government was set up/ founded on August 14th within economic crisis. So current government has many protest votes from every part of society.
But things change, politics is not static.

 

[actsnoblemartin]

why dont we talk about how, in muslim countries, women and non-muslims are treated like 2nd class citizens, and how they dont have very good diversity.

 

[ekrem]

Izmir, 13th May

 

[ekrem]

At least 1 million Turks took to the streets of Izmir on Sunday
http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/ne...3320183_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-TURKEY-PROTEST-COL.XML

1.5 Million Turks Rally to Stay Secular
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/05/13/ap3715151.html

 

[onedomino]

At least 1 million Turks took to the streets of Izmir on Sunday
http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/ne...3320183_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-TURKEY-PROTEST-COL.XML

1.5 Million Turks Rally to Stay Secular
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/05/13/ap3715151.html

Let's hope they prevail. Because if they do not, forget about NATO and the EU.