The Trump presidency ended the JCPOA agreement with Iran and with it all hope that the “reformers” in Teheran would succeed in moving Iran back into a more normal trade and political relationship with the West. European countries, though they pretended to continue respecting the JCPOA, completely capitulated to the threat of U.S. sanctions, which Bolton and Pompeo aimed at them if they traded with Iran.
In my opinion the Iranians are not especially interested in building a nuclear weapon, and especially not in using one. They are not mad and are fully aware that Israel could totally destroy them with its many such weapons. Also the Saudis would build one as well. Here is an excerpted article on the present political situation:
Has the nuclear deal with Iran already died … ? The difficulties in reviving it would suggest it truly has… So what exactly is going on? … From Biden’s perspective, the political advantages of clinching a new deal have waned…. Republicans are accusing Biden of being “soft” on Iran, which could cost Biden politically in the midterm elections.
From [new hardline Iranian President] Raisi’s perspective, a partial lifting of sanctions is worse than keeping the status quo, especially if in three years, a change in the U.S. presidency would translate into a full set of sanctions being reimposed…. Over the past three years … [Iran] adapted economically to life with sanctions. Its economy has grown 6 percent this year. It’s less dependent on oil, and has been trading more with its neighbours to the east.
Raisi’s first foreign trip as president was to Central Asia, where last month Iran signed on as a new member of the Shanghai Cooperation Council…. Iran previously focused on the West … but has now turned to look the other way, seeing China and India as equally good markets ….
Iran’s leaders have little faith that a renewed deal would lead to a return of [Western] businesses to Tehran…. Western banks and companies have already made it clear they can’t commit, since a return to new sanctions could be just around the corner…
Biden’s second dilemma is Israel, which for the past year has been conducting a … campaign of sabotage against Iran to degrade its nuclear program…. Israel views its approach as sustainable and effective. Yet this puts pressure not only on Iran, but … feeds into Iran’s deep suspicion of American motives and has hardened its posture….
Biden has assured Israel that should [negotiations] fail, other measures will be taken against Iran.
For Iranian President Raisi, the international environment has changed too…. Tehran is now in serious face-to-face talks with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about regional security and the war in Yemen. Trade has picked up across the Gulf as well. It is possible that … other issues may be addressed down the line … With the wealthy Gulf states feeling less secure of U.S. military support, there is strong impetus among their leaders to take responsibility for their neighborhood. This reduces the incentive for Tehran to strike a new deal with Washington….
Is there a Plan B for either Iran or the United States? Israel is already pursuing a Plan B —
death by a thousand cuts, to reduce Iran’s nuclear capability, and … destabilize its government. From Iran’s perspective, outside pressure, short of a full-scale land invasion, could actually be a political boon — raising popular ire and increasing patriotic support, not a bad thing to rally a population that by most measures is currently despondent.
For Biden, the picture is not pretty…. As he looks to focus more on the challenges from China, a slow conflagration in the Middle East will be an unwelcome diversion. The only way around that, however, is to negotiate a new Iran deal that will stick.
Is the old nuke deal with Iran already dead? – Responsible Statecraft